Should I have been in this hand still?

[eleventy]

My question is on the flop. The Pot was big and I had an inside str8 draw, backdoor flush draw and an overcard that probably was no good. Do I call the first 2 bets to me on the flop? I think I have to call the 2nd 2 since I called the first. The turn is an easy call. Is this a good call or am I a fish.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, BB calls, MP1 calls, MP3 calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (10 SB) 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, MP1 folds, MP3 folds, Hero calls, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB caps</font>, Hero calls, SB calls.

Turn: (11 BB) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls, SB calls.

[Grease]

This hand is frighteningly like a hand in SSH. Ed Miller proports you rereaise. The pot is more than big enough to continue, and you would like to see all 5 cards. so the best thing to do it reraise in an attempt to buy a free card on the turn. Even though you didn't, you're definitely calling the 2 back to you after you called the original 2.

[mdrudeen]

hmm if you discount your 3 ace outs (which I think is wise) then you are looking at 23 to 1 to runner runner a flush and 10 to 1 to hit the inside straight on the next card. You got 7 to 1 on your first cold call and 9 to 1 on your second. Looks like you made the same mistake twice on the same street

On preview I don't mind a raise either it is certainly a better option then calling. Although I would still fold.

[mosta]

I can give you three answers: fold, fold, and fold.

1. on the flop you're getting 3.25:1. nowhere close to what you need.

2. you could play for the river. assume you get the 6.5sb's plus 4sb's on the turn plus 2 sb's on the river = 12.5sb's, and that it only costs you 2 sb's on each the flop and the turn. that's 3 and change to 1. still no good. 5 outs with two cards is more like 4:1 against.

3. all these scenarios assume no more raising and when pf raiser gets raised there's too much chance he's not going to take it quiety. ie, you're going to spewing dinero.

[Fat Nicky]

[ QUOTE ]
This hand is frighteningly like a hand in SSH. Ed Miller proports you rereaise. The pot is more than big enough to continue, and you would like to see all 5 cards. so the best thing to do it reraise in an attempt to buy a free card on the turn. Even though you didn't, you're definitely calling the 2 back to you after you called the original 2.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think in order for a 3-bet to have any value here, we need to be VERY sure that we're gonna get the free card.

[mosta]

3 bet for free card is best approach to playing the hand, I agree. but I'm happy to walk away.

[crunchy1]

[ QUOTE ]
1. on the flop you're getting 3.25:1.

[/ QUOTE ]
He's getting immediate odds of 6.5-to-1 on the first flop call and 10-to-1 on the second flop call (assuming SB's call of the cap).

[mosta]

right, right, that's what I had but I'm too tired (divided twice). it's not "nowhere close", but it doesn't do it for 5 or so outs.

[Borno]

with 6.5:1 on the first flop bet, raising is right if you can get a free card (FOR SURE ONLY)- if you cant then you still have just enough to peel with you 4 + 1.5 + 1.5 outs (roughly 7.. this time I would way 6.5 thought becaus eI think your ace has even less value here. - this is heavily read based.

on the cap you MUST call once your committed.


--Jeremy

[eleventy]

I know I should know this but how many outs do we count a backdoor flush draw as?

[jba]

[ QUOTE ]
hmm if you discount your 3 ace outs (which I think is wise) then you are looking at 23 to 1 to runner runner a flush and 10 to 1 to hit the inside straight on the next card. You got 7 to 1 on your first cold call and 9 to 1 on your second. Looks like you made the same mistake twice on the same street

[/ QUOTE ]

the second call getting 9:1 is definitely justified with the gutshot and bdfd. 1/11 + 1/24 &gt; 1/10.

the first call is thin, but I think implied odds can justify a call in the right situation. If you think sb there is a good chance of sb reraising then it's a great fold, so making this call against an overaggressive sb is bad.

I don't like raising this, I think you're getting a free card fairly rarely here. It's hard enough to get the free card in 3/6 against just one opponent who likes his hand.

[jba]

[ QUOTE ]
I know I should know this but how many outs do we count a backdoor flush draw as?

[/ QUOTE ]

1.5 -- assuming nut flush draw with no pairs on board.

[jay1313]

I am confused on your odds figuring, I have the hero getting 6.5 to 1 on the first cold call (13SB to 2SB) and, (probably assuming SB continues) 10 to 1 on the second. With 5.5 outs and implied odds,I can see making this call. I probably fold this on the flop but I think the math is there.

[mosta]

factor in reraise probabilities. say 50% chance of 3-bet and 25% chance of 4-bet (just to make an estimate). then we pay
2.75 sb's to win 14.5 sb's. a little over 5:1. I don't think the raiser from the blind being played at is the ideal scenario to chase a long shot draw in.

edit: well a little over 5:1 is actually a good price. maybe it's a decent call. I would have folded on instinct.

[jskills]

I'd be folding the flop for the first 2 bets you had to cold call. You clearly don't have odds to draw to the gutshot.

[mosta]

I accidently divided twice the first time I posted and botched that number.

[jba]

[ QUOTE ]
factor in reraise probabilities. say 50% chance of 3-bet and 25% chance of 4-bet (just to make an estimate). then we pay
2.75 sb's to win 14.5 sb's. a little over 5:1. I don't think the raiser from the blind being played at is the ideal scenario to chase a long shot draw in.

[/ QUOTE ]

I definitely get what you're saying -- considering your effective odds here is key, and I think I like your vote for a fold. But I think your estimates are WAY too high here, I'd say it's closer to something like 15 and 5, but I just made those numbers up. Most tables just don't cap the flop 1/4 times there's a raise, IMHO.

[chief444]

I'd 3-bet. It's close. I think folding here is giving up a little bit though.

[ihardlyknowher]

[ QUOTE ]
Should I have been in this hand still?

[/ QUOTE ]

At first glance, I thought no. But you have 6-7 outs and are getting 6.5:1 on the first flop call. The second call is a no brainer, as is the turn call.

What makes this close is the risk of a 3-bet from the SB. If you think this is high, then muck it.

[ihardlyknowher]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd be folding the flop for the first 2 bets you had to cold call. You clearly don't have odds to draw to the gutshot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Those are not his only outs.

[chief444]

Just to give those in the "fold the flop" camp something to think about here...eleventy's equity on the flop here is probably somewhere between 20-25 percent on average. Sometimes slightly below (if against a set) sometimes above (if A outs are good). Granted there will be occasions when he doesn't see the river so it's a little deceiving but it still seems like a fine time to continue here with a 13 SB pot.

[ckessel]

You're 5-1 to make the inside straight by the river. You're getting 10-2 to make the call, so it seems close, but good. There's more to consider though which makes it a much more marginal call.

The 5-1 only counts if you know you're seeing the river. If it's 2 bets to you on the turn, you're getting 5-1 on a 10-1 shot, which is not good.

I think its either 3-bet or fold. By just calling you put yourself in the worst possible position on the turn where you're likely to be faced with poor odds to make the call to see the river. And if you're not seeing the river, you might as well fold the flop because you didn't get flop odds to pull only 1 card.

I think I 3-bet it and pray for a free card or at least only having to face one bet on the turn (which is a good call then).

[oreogod]

Its fold or re-raise time. Once u factor in all the possibilites of the flop betting, effective odds, etc....calling sucks. If u think u can get a free turn card, re-raise. If not, its a fold.

[Sifmole]

All the out counting here is giving the hand credit for the following groups of outs ( some discounted ):

-- gutshot ( 1 )
-- bd flush ( 1.5 )
-- over card ( 3 )

But I don't think we can even give the hand that many outs:

PF Action:
The SB raised PF vs 3 limpers, since we have no read I think it is reasonable to give the SSHE table. AA - 99, AK - ATs, KQs, AK, AQ ( about ).

The BB, I believe could have quite a range of cards here -- but I would be very suprised if there wasn't at least 1 paint card; and AK, AQ, Axs are very possible.

Flop Action:
SB comes out firing; don't think he has QQ. But almost anything else he would make this bet ( most 2+2ers would right? ). BB raises; could be blind defense but he could also well have a Q from AQ, KQ, QJ. He could also have something very hidden like 23s.

Out turn, Our outs:

-- gutshot ( 1 )
-- bd flush ( 1.5 )
-- over card ( 2 ) possibility that we are dominated here by either SB or BB that has AQ

We have 4.5 outs and getting 7:1 odds ( I am assuming a SB call or BB raise ). Our odds are about 11:1. I don't see a reasonable call.

SB 3-bets... I don't think it is safe to assume he is a donkey; so I am thinking AQ or KK, JJ, TT here, maybe AK but doubtful. The BB caps; I think this really limits BB to some strong hands ( made or draws ); 23o, QQ, KQ, AQ, QJ, and an outside 45s.

Our turn, our outs:

-- gutshot ( 1 )
The 4 looks safe but it isn't a nut hand; doubtful this betting is someone holding a 56; but any 4 will put a flush draw on the board, the 4s ours but the 4d and 4c not.

-- bd flush ( 1 )
A concern here is that there is a distinct likelie hood that one of our opponents has at least two pair, if not a set; most likely the BB w/ a low two pair. So any flush card that pairs the board is a concern ( 2s, Qs ) -- so even our flush draw is looking like it could be 2nd best at the river.

-- over card ( 0 )
I don't think we can give any credit for an Ace winning this hand. I really doubt one pair is even the best hand right now, let alone at the river.

So I see two outs here or a 22:1 draw with 10:1 odds. I don't know how even if we have already called 2 that we can call 2 more.

------------------

How weak am I? Tear me up please, I am trying to get better.

[jskills]

The pot is big enough on the flop to call one bet to make your 4 outer, but not 2 bets. Fold.

[pudley4]

[ QUOTE ]
-- gutshot ( 1 )

[/ QUOTE ]

The gutshot should be 4 outs. There's no reason to discount because BB or SB has 56 (they don't). There's no reason to think either of them have a backdoor flush draw, so there's no need to discount the 4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif or 4 /images/graemlins/club.gif.

You may consider that one or both opp have a set, so even if we hit on the turn, they'll have a redraw to a full house, but even then you sould only discount to 3 outs.

[gasoltub]

[ QUOTE ]
All the out counting here is giving the hand credit for the following groups of outs ( some discounted ):

-- gutshot ( 1 )
-- bd flush ( 1.5 )
-- over card ( 3 )



[/ QUOTE ]

I think you got something backwards here.

On the flop:
The gutshot is 3-4 outs and the Ace with a bad kicker is probably no more than 1.

On the turn:
Since we have a flush draw now, all 4's are good so that gives us, 9 spades plus the 3 other fours plus ~1 out for the ace which equals 12-13 outs. (most likely only 12 since the ace is probably no good)

[tpir90036]

I would 3-bet this and go from there...most likely taking the free card no matter what hits. The pot is getting big and if seeing the turn is a mistake it's only a small one.

[Sifmole]

wow -- I can't believe I put a 1 there..... /images/graemlins/blush.gif

That would make a difference in the calculations.