Sklansky vs. Caro at the WSOP ME

[popniklas]

Found this at Bodog.com:

WSOP ME Head-to-head:

Mike Caro
-120

David Sklansky
-120


All wagers have action. No parlays. Official results as per CardPlayer.com. For players eliminated on separate flights of Day 1, the Level at which they were eliminated will be used to determine winner.

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Now, I'm far from sure about this, but shouldn't Sklansky be a significant favorite over Caro here? Sklansky placed ITM last year and has a pretty good tournament record. I think he is the better NLHE tournament player.

Also, from what I have read about Mike Caro's personal strategies in tournaments, he plays in a risky way, designed to maximize his chances of winning the event. (Although perhaps would take another approach now given the huge field.) Sklansky on the other hand, seems to play more carefully and risk-aversive.

Correct me if I am wrong, but that seems to imply that Sklansky will finish ahead of Caro most of the time (while Caro on the other hand might have a greater chance of reaching the final table)?

So... what do you think about betting on Sklansky here?

[TomCollins]

This is why last longer bets are retarded. Same reason I take Paul Phillips over Phil Hellmuth in a LL.

[hogua]

At -120, there doesn't appear to be value here, no matter which side you pick. I'm staying away from this one.