stud probability coefficients?

[dandy_don]

[ QUOTE ]
If your two pair were live, you had 4 out to fill your big house.

So 4 times 3 (3 is the 6th street stud probability coefficient) equals 12.

Or 12% of the time you are going to fill. And there for if your sixth street bet is less than approx. 10% of the eventual pot, your call had positive mathematical expectations. So well called by you!

[/ QUOTE ]

Going through the archives, I ran across another one of Doc AZ's posts (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=stud&Number=107436&Forum=, f6,&Words=&Searchpage=1&Limit=25&Main=107421&Searc h=true&where=bodysub&Name=&daterange=1&newerval=&n ewertype=w&olderval=40&oldertype=m&bodyprev=#Post1 07436) where he references a "stud probability coefficient" for 6th street. Anyone know what these coefficients are for the other streets? Does anyone use these or something similar when left with a tough call/raise/fold situation?

I ran a search for this and nothing popped up.

dandy

[Bartholow]

It appears that it just means the chance of 1 out hitting by the river. So it's a way to approximate your total winning chances. Of course probability is not quite that simple with more than 1 card to come, but you can make pretty decent estimates that way.

Wish I could tell you what the numbers would be for other streets.

[TheShootah]

Yeah, but it seems like these can only be rough estimates...since the amount of seen cards are variable. /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[Bartholow]

Yeah, I assume they were calculated for headsup play but who knows. Seems like an awkward way to go about things alright.

[TheShootah]

[ QUOTE ]
Seems like an awkward way to go about things alright.

[/ QUOTE ]

/images/graemlins/grin.gif

[peritonlogon]

See "Getting the best of it" by Sklansy for how to calculate parlays (which is with more than one card to come). Or just multiply fractions
[(52-outs-dead)/(52-dead)][(52-outs-dead-1)/(52-dead-1)] This is for 2 cards to come. For each additional st. multiply another fraction like the second one and subtract 1 from the top and bottom of the fraction. This gives you the % that you won't hit. To determine the odds you will hit, let your % equal P,
(P)/(1-P) this will be your "odds to one." To determine your % chance of winning simply subtract P from 1

[TheShootah]

I think everyone on this forum knows this, but in the small period of time you get online, that's not possible, hence the need for some shortcut.

[dandy_don]

[ QUOTE ]
See "Getting the best of it" by Sklansy for how to calculate parlays (which is with more than one card to come). Or just multiply fractions
[(52-outs-dead)/(52-dead)][(52-outs-dead-1)/(52-dead-1)] This is for 2 cards to come. For each additional st. multiply another fraction like the second one and subtract 1 from the top and bottom of the fraction. This gives you the % that you won't hit. To determine the odds you will hit, let your % equal P,
(P)/(1-P) this will be your "odds to one." To determine your % chance of winning simply subtract P from 1

[/ QUOTE ]

Just reading that makes my head hurt. Somehow, that part of math escaped me getting through engineering school.

[dandy_don]

[ QUOTE ]
hence the need for some shortcut.

[/ QUOTE ]

Now that's what I'm talking about....

[peritonlogon]

I've programmed my TI-83 to calculate stud outs with the same formula I gave above. I have no way to import the program but either, someone else who can program something other than a calculator could be found, or you could give me specific situations in stud... for example the two pair on 6th heads up from 3rd on, assuming live cards where any full house and only a full house would win would be 3.95 to 1

[peritonlogon]

I meant on 5th

[TheShootah]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
hence the need for some shortcut.

[/ QUOTE ]

Now that's what I'm talking about....

[/ QUOTE ]

I too, am in engineering school! /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[dandy_don]

[ QUOTE ]
I too, am in engineering school!

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm 15 years beyond engineering school /images/graemlins/grin.gif.

[TheShootah]

Where and what kind? /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[dandy_don]

[ QUOTE ]
Where and what kind?

[/ QUOTE ]

Check your PM. I didn't think this is something for the entire forum.

[Doctavian]

Dear Danny,

Doc AZ is a good friend of mine. I asked him where he got his stud probability coeficients. And he said he thinks that he calculated them himself after reviewing Otmer's stud work and Mohamid Mohamid's work in his book "the mathmatical science of Poker. By calculating the seen versus unseen cards. I mentioned that depending on the numbers of players that the unknown cards could very from say 37 to 40. But as he explained that only made neglegable shift in the coeficients.

Doc Az's opinion is that by using the probability coeficients, all you have to do in these questionable calling situations is to multiply your outs (fill cards) by your coeficients to determine if the call will be financialy advantagious in the long run. If the resulting fraction or percentage, is greater than your pot odds, you will allways make money calling the bet in the long run. If the resulting fraction is smaller you would always loose money for the rest of your life.

Let's look at the example given. A player with a live two over pair (ie Aces and Kings) is trying to decide if he should call a made smaller fullhouse, set or flush.

In this example there are four out cards that will fill his house draw. So you multiple your 4 outs by your 6th street coeficient 3, which gives you a 12% chance of filling, or a one in 9, 1/9 chance of filling. Since fractions and percentages are convertable you can use which ever one you are more comfortable with.

If the fraction 1/9 (or percentage 12%) whichever one you want to use) ie in this case 1/9 is BIGGER than the fraction of your implied final pot size i.e. 1/12 (you are going to have to call (1) one bet, to potentialy win a pot of (12) bets, (hence the fraction 1/12) in the end (not counting the future bets YOU may put in the pot) As you know that is the definition of implied odds)

Then 1/9 is BIGGER than 1/12 So if you should make this call, every time for the rest of your life. And if you do you will be a long term winner.

But if you had the same situation and your coeficient result was SMALLER than your impied pot odds (ie 1/9 versus 1/6) (Now 1/9 is smaller than 1/6) if you make these calls over your life time you will be a long term looser.

If you prefer to use fractions, then say to yourself if 12% is bigger than the percent of my call bet (ie the implied pot without my bet will be $100 dollars and my bet is 10% of that) So 12% fill percent is bigger than my 10% it will have posative expectations and you should call.

As Doc would say: The amount you win or loose in a hand or a sesson is meningless. Always think of your poker career as one long lifetime poker tournament.

When I called him to see where he got his stud coeficients, and mentioned to him that some of the forum members had refered to his posts. He asked me to send his love to the dozens of forum members that he use to share his poker discussions with in years past.

Most Sincerely,

Doctavian

[dandy_don]

Thanks

[ QUOTE ]
When I called him to see where he got his stud coeficients, and mentioned to him that some of the forum members had refered to his posts. He asked me to send his love to the dozens of forum members that he use to share his poker discussions with in years past.

[/ QUOTE ]

It would be great to hear from him again.

[Doctavian]

Dear Danny,

I am afraid that I used my last post to tease some of my old friends. Doc AZ has been a friend of mine my whole life because I am Doc AZ. Since I left I got a new Internet provider who already had a Doc AZ so I got a new e-name Doctavian. When I returned to Two Plus Two (after a couple of years) I couldn’t remember my old login data so I just used my new moniker and choose a new password.

When I signed into the stud room I was surprised to see that some of my old friends were still here and also that two of my old posts were being discussed. So I thought that I would see if I could fool any of my old forum friends.

You asked what have I been doing since I left:

A couple of years ago my wife Honey mentioned to me that a community center in our city was looking for someone to teach English to immigrant children.

When I went down there I found that there were dozens of fine young latio children, most of whom not only couldn't read English but many couldn't even read Spanish. But the kids desperately wanted to learn. And they also desperately wanted to become first class Americans. Well I ended up telling the center that if they would give me a room to use, that I would outfit it as a classroom and teach. (It was the best money that I ever spent)
We had a great time and I ended up teaching English, history, science, retoric, and a class I designed called "How to become a great American".

Every day during the summers I would drive to the center and there waiting at my classroom door would be dozens of kids, who had given up their summer vacation time to crowd into that classroom. And you could not believe how they improved. It really was a joy to teach.

Once the regular school term started the district invited me to teach Biology. Which I have been doing, but the truth is, I didn’t retire from medicine just to work full time at another profession. So I decided to limit my teaching to a couple of days a week at the barrio center. And that leaves me with four days a week to return to my old love poker.

On returning to my local casino, to my dismay, I found that of the 40 some tables they post each day only 2 are reserved for stud. Fortunately I play Stud and Holdem but I wish that there were more stud games available.

Well being “back in the game” I of course wanted to return to Two Plus Two. But since I had left I had change Internet providers and my old moniker Doc AZ had been taken so I choose the new one of Doctavian.



When I signed into the stud room I was surprised to see that some of my old friends were still here and even that two of my old posts were being discussed. That’s when I thought that I would see if I could fool any of my old pals.

But the joking is over. So lets roll up our sleeves and see if we can’t get this game figured out.

Your new friend,

Doctavian aka Doc AZ

[peritonlogon]

I'm still curious what the probablity cofficient might be with 2 cards to come, if Doctavian happens to know, I'd like to compare its results to the standard drawing odds method.

[TheShootah]

Wow, you are a great person! Big up to Doc. Now hand over those other coefficients! That is really impressive that you figured them out like that though. Welcome back. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[dandy_don]

[ QUOTE ]
because I am Doc AZ.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, welcome back.

I knew in one of your last posts you stated that you were going away for a while.

The forum has changed to what I believe to be a younger group of guys, mostly due to online games, than from the time you were regularly posting. I don't see this as a bad thing, because stud needs the younger players to get and keep the game growing. In the Tunica casinos, it seems like I'm always the youngest one at the table and I'm in my late 30's.

I'm sure it was before, but the stud forum is by far the best on 2+2; we are the best behaved and the best at trying to help improve each others game without the harshness many in The Zoo (Internet Forum) demonstrate. I hope you continue to participate and help create those of us that are willing, into great stud players.

The floor is yours Doc.

[Doctavian]

Dear Perit,

I wish that I could help right now. But I haven't reviewed the topic in a couple of years. I might have my notes in my copy of Mohamed's work on the mathematics of poker. If I find them I certainly will get them to you.

It is an interesting topic and those of us in the forum, who are interested in this topic, should do the math together.

Let's plan on making this one of the topics we want to investigate this month. I'll see if I can't dig out my copy of Otmer's work as well.

Most Sincerely,

[Doctavian]

Dear Dan,

Thanks for your kind note. I am very, very pleased to learn that the participants of the stud group still take pride in our forum. We had such a super group before. And we really did work to help each other master the game.

And in the process many of us became good friends.

One of the keys to the work we did before was that we all respected each other. For a forum to really produce we need to know that we can raise questions without being criticized. And we can critique each other with out being critical.

After reading only a few of your posts I am already looking forward to working with you.

Most Sincerely,

Doc AZ

[BTirish]

Doc AZ,

It's a pleasure to see you return to the forum. I'm a newbie to the forum and a relative newbie to the game; I'm one of those young guys who got into Internet poker, starting with hold'em. One day I decided to watch 7 card stud. I thought it was pretty intriguing, so I sat down, and I've been hooked ever since. Still playing low limits (usually 1/2) and doing pretty well. I've posted a few hands in the forum... usually places where I wanted confirmation of an error or to get feedback on a weird idea.

The last week has been pretty rough for me. I've even been chased back to the hold'em tables for some short runs. I've had to resist the urge to post several "you won't believe how I lost this one" type posts... but then I remembered that this is 7 stud, and everyone would believe how I lost it. But still, I can't help it: I love this game.

I look forward to reading your posts and hopefully learning a lot from your game. Welcome back!

[Doctavian]

Dear BT,

It is nice to hear from you. You have such a great attitude I know that (if you are willing to do the work required) that you are going to become a master player someday.


I was thinking about you (after reading your post) and I designed a stud question for you to ponder. Actually I hid several stud ideas in it for you to think about.

The question concerns going heads up against a Pounder.

I look forward to reading your reply.
Most sincerely,

Doc AZ