ATo in MP with lots of blind money in - raise it up???

[MisterKing]

I normally instamuck ATo in all but super late position, and even then I'm only playing if I'm the one opening the pot or otherwise face very favorable conditions. That said, this seemed like a possible exception.

My thinking was: I have a definite equity edge against essentially four random hands, and while I'm out of position against the two guys I fear most in the hand, I will often know very well where I stand on the flop if I raise it up pre-flop and am not re-raised by either of the LP posters. With 4.4SB in the pot and action folded to me, I just saw too many loose dollars available not to go after them with my above average starter.

Here are the relevant reads: I've played against MP3 before and noted that he's somewhat tricky, not to mention aggressive in position. He comes in at 22/7/2 over a somewhat small sample. CO is TAGish from the hands I've seen personally, at 17.5/10.5/2, and the data mining guys at PokerEdge confirm that status over a larger sample. SB is average/passive, at 28/2/1, and BB is a maniacal retard, at 36/20/1.9. I've seen him chase badly once or twice, and he's prone to pay off hands he's crushed by all the way.

So, what's the verdict pre-flop? And once hero has made the play, what's the best way to manage the unexpectedly large field with TPDK?

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif. MP3 posts a blind of $5. CO posts a blind of $7.
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP3 (poster) calls, CO (poster) calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (10.40 SB) Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, CO folds, SB folds, BB calls, Hero calls.

Raising seemed attractive here, but not as attractive as raising a non-club turn. Clubs are going to have the odds to continue even if I do raise the flop, and I'm pretty damned sure it'll be bet to me on the turn (recall my read on BB), so I decide to wait...

Turn: (8.20 BB) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP3 folds, BB calls.

River: (12.20 BB) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls.

Final Pot: 14.20 BB

[Harv72b]

Nice hand. I agree with your thinking on every street. The only nit I can pick is that clubs will obviously have the odds to continue when you raise the turn, too, but it just makes more sense to charge them on the more expensive street (and avoid putting in extra bets should a club turn come).

[ArturiusX]

If they've got clubs, they aint going away no matter what. Raise the flop.

[aK13]

I'm open-raising ATo in MP everytime.

I also raise ATo in MP against 1-2 EP limpers...I'm pretty sure it is, but I can be swayed.

[Malachii]

Raise the flop. Why didn't you? You want a hand like KJ, KQ, or QJ out!

[kslghost]

I like the play on the turn and river (nice river too).

As for the theory, I do like the idea, but I'm not sure that raising here will be that great of an equity push. The "dead" money means they are getting double odds in position on you. I think that raising has the immediate effect of pushing the slight edge you may have, but I don't know that on later streets you will maintain any sort of advantage and in fact you may often be losing money because of position. Also, the fact that their calling your raise was also probably correct doesn't make this much happier.

Luckily, your flop was ok, and your river probably probably assures your win, but I don't know if this is a winning play long term, out of position. Timely folds postflop will make this play a little more viable, but I'm not particularly keen on the math of all this (and I don't quite feel like busting out spreadsheets at 2 am :-D ).

Anyways, good luck!

[MisterKing]

[ QUOTE ]
Raise the flop. Why didn't you? You want a hand like KJ, KQ, or QJ out!

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, but are you at all concerned about what a flop raise will do to my ability to protect my hand on the turn? And have you considered the fact that one club gutshot broadway draws probably have the odds to call two cold on this flop?

A hand like KcJs has 5.5 effective outs, and would be getting 13:2 or 6.5:1 to call. Though this is about one SB short of the raw odds they need to call, the implied odds surely put them in the clear. It isn't much better for me if someone has the Qc with another broadway card, since they can add the backdoor flush outs to the trips and two pair outs. Raising the flop sucks for these reasons, IMO. There are as many hands I tie to the pot that I want out as there are that I force out that can call when I just call. Waiting to raise until the turn does risk a cheaper turn card beating me, but it also helps me blow ALL of these hands out when a safe card falls.

[MisterKing]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm open-raising ATo in MP everytime.

I also raise ATo in MP against 1-2 EP limpers...I'm pretty sure it is, but I can be swayed.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, I'm listening -- what games are you playing? The open-raise sounds much more attractive than the raise after limpers. The trouble for me is the threat of domination with ATo, and the fact that many low-stakes jackasses don't 3-bet with hands like AJs, AQo, AKo, etc. -- meaning I might hit and still not know where I stand, paying off while behind the whole way. Now, these "jackasses" are profitable to play against, don't get me wrong, but there are certain plays that I think are ok to leave out against them, and raising ATo in MP seems to be one that isn't a big sacrifice.

[wrto4556]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, but are you at all concerned about what a flop raise will do to my ability to protect my hand on the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you're misunderstanding what "protecting" your hand means. It's not to get people to fold, it's to give people incorrect odds to draw. A raise on the flop does that. Raising the turn would be to get more value out of your hand. Personally, I don't think you hand is strong enough.

The raise preflop is pretty standard for me.

[MisterKing]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yes, but are you at all concerned about what a flop raise will do to my ability to protect my hand on the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you're misunderstanding what "protecting" your hand means. It's not to get people to fold, it's to give people incorrect odds to draw. A raise on the flop does that. Raising the turn would be to get more value out of your hand. Personally, I don't think you hand is strong enough.

The raise preflop is pretty standard for me.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, no I am not misunderstanding anything here. I am 100% unable to offer incorrect odds on the flop via a raise. I've outlined that fact. If I raise the flop one card crub frush and gutshot straight combo draws will have the odds to call that bet AND a turn bet. If I just call the flop, I can offer these hands incorrect odds to call (and thus PROTECT my hand) with a turn raise. Look at the pot and make your case, because I don't think you have a leg to stand on.

[__Q__]

MP3's flop raise would be a little scary here. You said he was tricky, but I can see him having a lot of hands that could beat you. What kinds of hands can we put him on? He definitely could have clubs, but given that you raised a head of him preflop, he could AK-AJ or even a set and could be trying to protect his strong hand against flush draws. I understand he is tricky, but if he is that tricky (turn fold shows he is), then could having a player like this acting behind you be enough of a reason not to raise AT before the flop?

Not arguing with your play, but these are just some questions i had.

Q

[jskills]

[ QUOTE ]
Raise the flop. Why didn't you? You want a hand like KJ, KQ, or QJ out!

[/ QUOTE ]

[ihardlyknowher]

I think it looks great on all 4 streets.

[Grease]

My first reactionw was that I really liked the hand, but I began to be swayed by the arguments to raise the flop, but I think I'm back on the side of raising the turn. You can protect your hand much better and safely give all gutshots a lose-lose situation, instead of a very marginal one on the flop.

I'm still interested in hearing more about raising the flop, though.

[PhatPots]

that flop is a raise. You want to try to isolate the raiser and force everyone to call 2 cold. You Top pair, average kicker is not that strong. There are a lot of scare cards. How would u react if the board paired?

Pots

[Padawan Learner]

Mister King:

[ QUOTE ]
I am 100% unable to offer incorrect odds on the flop via a raise. I've outlined that fact.

[/ QUOTE ]

You showed where a K /images/graemlins/club.gifJx would technically be correct in calling, but what about hands like Qx, or gutshots with no club? In addition, while they K /images/graemlins/club.gifJx is technically getting very close odds, they will not be closing the action with the maniacal retarded BB still being able to raise again.

YOu are obvioulsy correct that facing the field with 2BB vs 2sb in this largish pot is going to "protect" your hand better (at the cost of letting them draw on the flop cheaply. And the one thing you do have going for you in this hand is that the BB is maniacal, so it is likely that he will lead into you again on the turn if he is met with no resistance on the flop. If the BB was unknown, then not taking the flop opportunity to pop it would be a pretty big mistake, imo, as there is no guarantee he will lead the turn again.

I don't think your play is necessarily bad, and I think your position is blostered by the high likelihood of being bet into again on the turn. However, I do think that you underestimate the ability for a flop raise to actually "protect" your hand here.

[MisterKing]

[ QUOTE ]
Mister King:

[ QUOTE ]
I am 100% unable to offer incorrect odds on the flop via a raise. I've outlined that fact.

[/ QUOTE ]

You showed where a K /images/graemlins/club.gifJx would technically be correct in calling, but what about hands like Qx, or gutshots with no club? In addition, while they K /images/graemlins/club.gifJx is technically getting very close odds, they will not be closing the action with the maniacal retarded BB still being able to raise again.

YOu are obvioulsy correct that facing the field with 2BB vs 2sb in this largish pot is going to "protect" your hand better (at the cost of letting them draw on the flop cheaply. And the one thing you do have going for you in this hand is that the BB is maniacal, so it is likely that he will lead into you again on the turn if he is met with no resistance on the flop. If the BB was unknown, then not taking the flop opportunity to pop it would be a pretty big mistake, imo, as there is no guarantee he will lead the turn again.

I don't think your play is necessarily bad, and I think your position is blostered by the high likelihood of being bet into again on the turn. However, I do think that you underestimate the ability for a flop raise to actually "protect" your hand here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good points -- in some cases I do agree that a flop raise is appropriate here. However the texture of the board and the nature of my opponents seems to me to demand delayed aggression.

I think all the Qx non-crub hands can call two cold on the flop, unless I play my hand face up and they have QT. They have five clean outs, getting 6.5:1 if I raise it. They need only 8:1 to call, so if they can count on picking up 1.5SB later in the hand when they hit (and with maniac BB in I think they can), then they need to call. The Qx club hands have ~6.5 (maybe 6.0 if you discount their BD club draw somewhat) outs and they're clearly getting enough to call two.

The gutshots with no crub, however, have to fold to two bets on the flop. As do the bottom pair hands, and pocket pairs searching for a two-outer. Those pocket pairs likely need to fold to one bet anyhow... though I guess KK could continue thinking maybe he's ahead some of the time, and maybe he makes a BD straight or set some of the time. I don't see KK being out there given the PF action.

So of all the likely hands for my opponents (club frush draws, Ax, club gutters, non-club gutters, and Qx), I can only reasonably get one (the non-club gutters) -- maybe two if you throw the weaker Ax hands in -- classes to fold for two bets on the flop. All the others have to call two bets. This is a compelling point, in my opionion. And there's another angle to all of this: if I raise the flop there is a chance BB doesn't bet into me on the turn, meaning I'll be in a really bad spot as far as the odds I'll have to give to the later position players. They could end up as high as 10:1 or so!

[MisterKing]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Raise the flop. Why didn't you? You want a hand like KJ, KQ, or QJ out!

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

I have explained why. Most of those hands have the odds to call two cold. The only one you identify that does not is KJ no clubs. QJ and KQ (with or without crubs) might have to fold the turn UI, but they will definitely have the odds to call two on the flop. Raising for its own sake is not a virtue -- you need to have a reason, and here I just don't see one.

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
Most of those hands have the odds to call two cold.

[/ QUOTE ]

There are plenty of hands you can put in an incorrect position to call here that you want out. You're also assuming that you'll be bet into on the turn again, which won't always happen.

Raise the flop.

[Jules22]

raise the flop to isolate the bb and charge draws

[MisterKing]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Most of those hands have the odds to call two cold.

[/ QUOTE ]

There are plenty of hands you can put in an incorrect position to call here that you want out. You're also assuming that you'll be bet into on the turn again, which won't always happen.

Raise the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

What hands are you talking about? I trust your judgment, but am struggling to find a range of hands to substantiate your claim.

I've already been through the one club gutshot draws, the Qx hands, the no club gutshots, the club flushes, the Ax hands, and the pocket pairs. Of these hands, the ONLY ones that must fold for two bets but not one are as follows: no club gutshots, QT, and the weakest Ax hands (probably only A2 and A3). That's a very small universe. I'd argue that other weak offsuit aces have the odds to call two bets cold on the flop if they knew what I had, since they have three outs to beat me (pairing their kicker), three outs to tie me (the fours, since my kicker wouldn't play), some partial outs to chop if a queen falls and then a card that kills my kicker, and then whatever backdoor draws they've got. Counting outs per SSH, this total will usually add up to about 5.5. With implied odds, 5.5 outers have the odds to call two cold on this flop. Maniac BB's presence adds a lot of potential profit to any drawing hand, since he often pays off to the bitter end while behind.

Raising the flop to price this small universe out has the adverse consequences of:

1.) Bloating the pot, meaning that those hands that should call the flop raise will again have the odds to call on the turn;
2.) Substantially reducing the likelyhood that I'll be bet into on the turn, meaning I won't be able to raise and instead be forced to offer either infinite odds (by checking myself) or huge odds (~10:1 when its checked to me and I bet) on the turn.

Think about the number of cards I don't want to see on the turn if I raise the flop, and compare it to the number of cards I don't want to see on the turn if I just call. Therer's almost no difference whatsoever. The turn will make this hand, and I might as well limit my investment prior to then, and maximize my ability to offer incorrect odds when a favorable card does fall on 4th street.

Edit: I suppose bottom pair/random kicker hands are one type of hand that I do want out that will call one bet but not two. While my PF raise probably thinned some 4-x hands out, some could easily still be around.

[SoSo]

i hate it, congrats on sucking out on the river.