Hold 'Em Odds - Flop->River, Flop->Turn, Turn->River?

[texag97]

I am trying to memorize odds that occur in common hold 'em situations, but before I committ these odds to memory, I want to make sure that I calculated them correctly. The odds are in three parts: 1) odds to complete a flopped hand into a winning hand (taken from Appendix A HPFAP) 2) odds to catch needed card on turn 3) odds to catch needed card on river.

FLOP ODDS IF PLAYED TO RIVER TO COMPLETE HAND
# Outs_____Percentage______Odds
15---------54.1%-----------.85:1 (straight flush)
11---------41.7%-----------1.4:1 (flush draw w/ 2 overcards)
9----------35.0%-----------1.85:1 (flush)
8----------31.5%-----------2.2:1 (open straight)
5----------20.3%-----------4:1 (one pair -> two pair or set)
4----------16.5%-----------5:1 (gutshot straight)
2----------8.4%------------11:1 (pocket pair -> set)
FLOP ODDS
# Outs_____Percentage______Odds
15---------31.9%-----------2.1:1 (straight flush)
11---------23.4%-----------3.3:1 (flush draw w/ 2 overcards)
9----------19.1%-----------4.2:1 (flush)
8----------17.0%-----------4.9:1 (open straight)
5----------10.6%-----------8.4:1 (one pair -> two pair or set)
4----------8.5%------------10.8:1 (gutshot straight)
2----------4.3%------------22:1 (pocket pair -> set)
TURN ODDS
# Outs_____Percentage______Odds
15---------32.6%-----------2.1:1 (straight flush)
11---------23.9%-----------3.2:1 (flush draw w/ 2 overcards)
9----------19.6%-----------4.1:1 (flush)
8----------17.4%-----------4.7:1 (open straight)
5----------10.9%-----------8.2:1 (one pair -> two pair or set)
4----------8.7%------------10.5:1 (gutshot straight)
2----------4.3%------------22.2:1 (pocket pair -> set)

The flop to turn & turn to river odds I calculated as follows:
For Example:
Flush Draw on turn = 9 outs (ideally) 9 cards out of 46 unseen cards make flush. 9/46 = .1956 or 19.6% chance of catching card. Odds = (100 - 19.6)/19.6 = 4.1:1
So in this example, the pot needs to be offering at least 4.1:1 odds to make a call correct? If the pot is offering greater than greater than 8.2:1 odds (let's say 10:1 huge pot) then a raise is positive expectation?

Also, in the first chart, the odds of completing your hand with 15 outs (straight flush draw) are in your favor .85:1, therefore should you maximize the pot (bet, raise or check-raise) on the flop? If you are able to maximize the pot with a straight flush draw, then you should nearly always have sufficient odds to at least call on the turn, correct?

Any suggestions, advice or corrections are needed and welcomed! (Sorry about the format, I don't know HTML)

[BruceZ]

So in this example, the pot needs to be offering at least 4.1:1 odds to make a call correct?

Yes.

If the pot is offering greater than greater than 8.2:1 odds (let's say 10:1 huge pot) then a raise is positive expectation?

No. It's not how many bets are in the pot, it's how many additional bets will call your raise. If it is 4.1-1 against making your hand and 5 or more people will call your raise, then you are raising for value. Of course the size of the pot may make a raise right for other reasons such as if you can get everyone to fold. Conversely, it may not always be correct to raise for value if there is a chance you will be outdrawn if you do make your hand This can be taken into account by adjusting your outs. You may also elect not to raise on the flop in order to keep the pot small so that your opponents will be incorrect in calling a turn bet.

[BruceZ]

Actually, your statement is correct that with a pot greater than 8.2:1, raising or calling a raise would be positive expectation purely from a pot odds standpoint. My point was just that raising cuts your pot odds in half relative to calling since you must invest 2 bets. However, if 5 people call your raise, then your ev increases by raising since you are getting 5 additional bets to your 1 extra bet. In that case it is said you are getting the proper effective odds to raise since the effective odds take into account the extra bets your raise will bring in on top of what is currently in the pot. Pot odds only take into account the size of the pot at the time you act.

[AmericanAirlines]

Hi texag97
These are good odds to know...especially when you figure making the hand listed will win, no matter what. But perhaps an even more useful set would be "Odds of winning with hand X when opponent is suspected of holding hand Y". After all the opponent is going to get more cards if he stays with you as well... so in a sense he's drawing back at you.

I.E. You hold Top pair at the flop.. say pair of 10's with an K kicker... you suspect your opponent has pocket rockets... how big does the pot need to be to draw against him?

Further, what are the 10 or 20 most common hand against hand matchups you are likely to encounter?

*That* would be some useful information too.

Sincerely,
AA

[AmericanAirlines]

What does this mean?

11---------41.7%-----------1.4:1 (flush draw w/ 2 overcards)

That you are drawing to? A pair, a flush or both? Clearly there are cases when a flush would win, but an overpair would not.

Sincerely,
AA

[texag97]

Now that you point this out, I think I might have mis-calculated the number of outs in the type of hand I was thinking of - I think it is 15 outs. I am still pretty new to all of this, and I am trying to learn. This type of situation may not come up real often, but at lower limits (which is all I can currently afford to play) it could happen in the following situation:

I hold AKs and raise in early position. I get reraised in middle position by a loose, aggressive raiser whom I suspect has anything from a medium pocket pair to A(10+) to AA. If the flop comes 10 5 2 with two of my suit, then I have 9 outs for the nut flush and 6 possible outs (3 A's and 3 K's) that could be good, especially if the opponent is truly a loose raiser. It is true that there would be times when he might have already flopped a set, or that my overcard could come and make him two pair (Aces and Tens). This is a situation where I am not sure what the positive EV play is, and I am guessing that it all depends on my read on my opponent.

I don't know what type of hand that I was originally thinking of for 11 outs...maybe an open ended straight draw with one overcard??? LOL. I don't know.

Fact is, I want to become so comfortable with all odds involved in the hand that it is nearly second nature to "think" in terms of odds instead of hoping that I am making the correct play. I realize that odds don't always determine the correct play, but I suspect that they go a long way in helping you determine what the correct play is.

[texag97]

In your example of K-10 vs. AA on a board like 10 5 2...what odds would I need to draw against the AA? You would need a pretty big pot to even see the turn if you truly suspect AA (or even QQ or JJ - if you think KK you better fold).

Technically, you have only 5 outs holding K-10 vs. AA with a 10 high flop. You are hoping for one of two more tens, or one of three Kings. Strictly looking at pot odds, you need at least 8.4:1 pot odds to make this call to see the turn, and this is improbable unless the pot was capped with three people in (approximately 12:1 odds on one small bet on flop). But then again, you might be able to make this call without appropriate pot odds because your implied odds will be fairly high because if you hit your hand, you will be paid off nicely. Also, you have to think about what to do if you don't catch one of your 5 outs on the turn...probably an easy fold.

Say you catch your 10 on the turn, then AA has only two outs to beat you, which would put him at an appoximately 22:1 underdog, but he probably still thinks his hand is good, therefore nice payoff. If you catch your K on the turn, AA has two aces, 3 twos and 3 fives to catch to still beat you, so 8 outs - making him only a 4.7:1 underdog. So about 17% of the time, you would make your two pair, only to pay off a larger two pair on the river...making this play even less profitable.

Bottom line (in my opinion), if the pot is large, I might call one small bet on flop, and fold on turn if I don't catch.

I hope all of this is correct, and if it's not, hopefully Bruce Z will correct me.

[AmericanAirlines]

Hi Texag97,
Hey, at least you are thinking and doing the work!

Anyway, Michael Hall, aka Abdul Jalib M'hall or just Abdul Jalib has some charts of drawing odds in his article about "Sucking Out" here:

http://www.posev.com/poker/holdem/strategy/outs-abdul.html

Might help you in compiling your tables. Something I keep swearing I'm going to do as well.

Sincerely,
AA