someone please explain this slump....

[syka16]

I 4-tabled 1500 $22 sngs for a ROI of 28. My finish distribution is .144/.141./.124. Obviously that # isn’t set in stone but I’ve been breaking even for my last 200. I’ve been slumping ever since pokerroom.com started giving the winning percentages once all players in the hand are all in. It seems that since this feature has been added, players have tightened up in the earlier stages and loosened up their calling ranges later, making it harder to steal. IMO it has made the games tougher to beat. I rather blame my slump on bad luck (which I’m sure I’ve been having) but I’m sure that this feature has had a negative affect on my results. Anyone agree with me?

[lastchance]

It could just be variance. It very easily just could be variance.

[syka16]

suppose it is. Do you think there is any credibilty to the idea that this new feature makes sngs tougher?

[Myst]

Yes, it is possible. Its probably just a combination of both.

[pergesu]

How are WE going to explain YOUR slump?

If you can't beat the game now that your opponents see the percentages, then you weren't good enough to beat it long term in the first place.

[syka16]

[ QUOTE ]
How are WE going to explain YOUR slump?

If you can't beat the game now that your opponents see the percentages, then you weren't good enough to beat it long term in the first place.

[/ QUOTE ]

I wasn't asking if I could still beat the game. But I think this new feature improves the players enough to make a 200g 0-ROI more likely. When all your opponents lower their calling ranges during the late stages to include 40% more hands, that's going to affect your results...

[Big Limpin']

I think you are on to something.
After seeing the %s enough times, it will start to wisen up the fish.
"He called my A8 allin with QJ??? QJ !?!?!. Oh wait, its got a 40% chance to win??? But, Ive got an ace high. THats a way better hand"

...eventually, they are bound to wisen up to the fact that its pretty tough to be a massive fav or dog. ONce you get big blinds @ bubble, the more astute fish will start realizing that some "sketchy" calls are actually correct, and that some "maniac" pushes come out ahead even if they are called half the time.

[Myst]

[ QUOTE ]
I wasn't asking if I could still beat the game. But I think this new feature improves the players enough to make a 200g 0-ROI more likely. When all your opponents lower their calling ranges during the late stages to include 40% more hands, that's going to affect your results...

[/ QUOTE ]

Then pick your spots to get all in more selectively.

[syka16]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I wasn't asking if I could still beat the game. But I think this new feature improves the players enough to make a 200g 0-ROI more likely. When all your opponents lower their calling ranges during the late stages to include 40% more hands, that's going to affect your results...

[/ QUOTE ]

Then pick your spots to get all in more selectively.

[/ QUOTE ]

c'mon. obviously it's more porfitable to push any 2 in the SB with 5BB when your opponent is tight... but still profitable when they're loose.

[syka16]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you are on to something.
After seeing the %s enough times, it will start to wisen up the fish.
"He called my A8 allin with QJ??? QJ !?!?!. Oh wait, its got a 40% chance to win??? But, Ive got an ace high. THats a way better hand"

...eventually, they are bound to wisen up to the fact that its pretty tough to be a massive fav or dog. ONce you get big blinds @ bubble, the more astute fish will start realizing that some "sketchy" calls are actually correct, and that some "maniac" pushes come out ahead even if they are called half the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've been hearing a lot less on "wtf why would you call/push that", "lusky f'er" etc.

[pergesu]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
How are WE going to explain YOUR slump?

If you can't beat the game now that your opponents see the percentages, then you weren't good enough to beat it long term in the first place.

[/ QUOTE ]

I wasn't asking if I could still beat the game.

[/ QUOTE ]
You asked for us to explain your slump, and that's what I responded to. We can't possibly know the source of your slump. My other comment was simply an obvservation that the game shouldn't be significantly tougher just because your opponents see odds now.

[spentrent]

In 1500 SNGs you didn't have ONE 200-game crapstreak?

Variance sucks and you're only seeing the tip.

[stupidsucker]

[ QUOTE ]
In 1500 SNGs you didn't have ONE 200-game crapstreak?

Variance sucks and you're only seeing the tip.

[/ QUOTE ]

a 200 game break even streak is not uncommon, but it sure sucks.

Don't read to far into it. your sample size is big enough, you have just been lucky thus far to not see this swing earlier.

Take a step back, look at the bottom line and play poker.

[syka16]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
In 1500 SNGs you didn't have ONE 200-game crapstreak?

Variance sucks and you're only seeing the tip.

[/ QUOTE ]

a 200 game break even streak is not uncommon, but it sure sucks.

Don't read to far into it. your sample size is big enough, you have just been lucky thus far to not see this swing earlier.

Take a step back, look at the bottom line and play poker.

[/ QUOTE ]

my second longest was 85g 0-ROI but keep in mind that these are $22 T1500 sngs. I probably was on a pretty good run for the fisrt 1500. I'll get over the losing streak and this post was mostly about the affect of the new feature at pokerroom. It does nothing but train the fish.

[syka16]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
How are WE going to explain YOUR slump?

If you can't beat the game now that your opponents see the percentages, then you weren't good enough to beat it long term in the first place.

[/ QUOTE ]

I wasn't asking if I could still beat the game.

[/ QUOTE ]
You asked for us to explain your slump, and that's what I responded to. We can't possibly know the source of your slump. My other comment was simply an obvservation that the game shouldn't be significantly tougher just because your opponents see odds now.

[/ QUOTE ]

Haven’t you ever witnessed fish tightening up after being berated?

[raptor517]

god posts like this just tear me apart. i really dont even know what to say sometimes. breaking even over 200 IS NOT THAT BAD. seriously. in the 55s, where i am by far the best at in my game, ive gone 1k sngs breaking even. ive maintained 15%+ 8-12 tabling over THOUSANDS of sngs. variance sucks. its part of poker. 200 aint no thang. itll turn around. if it doesnt, feel free to pm me when ya hit 1k breakin even and we can share bad beat stories. /images/graemlins/wink.gif holla

[syka16]

[ QUOTE ]
god posts like this just tear me apart. i really dont even know what to say sometimes. breaking even over 200 IS NOT THAT BAD. seriously. in the 55s, where i am by far the best at in my game, ive gone 1k sngs breaking even. ive maintained 15%+ 8-12 tabling over THOUSANDS of sngs. variance sucks. its part of poker. 200 aint no thang. itll turn around. if it doesnt, feel free to pm me when ya hit 1k breakin even and we can share bad beat stories. /images/graemlins/wink.gif holla

[/ QUOTE ]

ok. but the odds of 200sngs 0-ROI with a true ROI of .28 is almost equivalent to 1k with .15.

[pergesu]

The odds may be the same, but I bet it feels worse to go 1k breakeven than 200.

I did 500 breakeven last month. It was truly horrible.