Is the AL Central the new AL East [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

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johnnybeef

06-19-2005, 07:15 PM

With the White Sox owning the best record in baseball at 45-22, Minnesota at 38-29, and the resergent Cleveland Indians at 37-30, the AL Central IMO has gone from the laughing stock of the big leagues to the toughest division in baseball in a period of one year. Throw in the fact that Detroit is playing at .500 and all the teams are relatively young, this division of smaller market teams may be the division to watch for the rest of the decade.

LoaferGee12

06-20-2005, 03:38 PM

Our time has finally come.

CD56

06-20-2005, 03:48 PM

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Our time has finally come.

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I think your time will be up by September.

Jack of Arcades

06-20-2005, 05:45 PM

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Our time has finally come.

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I think your time will be up by September.

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If you think the White Sox are blowing a 7.5 game lead, even if the Twins are the best team in baseball, you're sadly mistaken.

Patrick del Poker Grande

06-20-2005, 05:50 PM

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Our time has finally come.

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I think your time will be up by September.

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If you think the White Sox are blowing a 7.5 game lead, even if the Twins are the best team in baseball, your new name is Captain Obvious

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FYP

ThaSaltCracka

06-20-2005, 06:02 PM

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this division of smaller market teams may be the division to watch for the rest of the decade.

[/ QUOTE ] bwahahahahaha, are you serious.

LoaferGee12

06-20-2005, 06:04 PM

Jack of Arcades

06-20-2005, 06:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
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Our time has finally come.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think your time will be up by September.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you think the White Sox are blowing a 7.5 game lead, even if the Twins are the best team in baseball, your new name is Captain Obvious

[/ QUOTE ]
FYP

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Um, OK. The White Sox would have to up and become a .500 team for Minnesota to catch them.

Voltron87

06-20-2005, 06:46 PM

Chigaco's run in the playoffs (east gets the wc) will end when they play an al east team, be it baltimore or the sox or nyy, their bullpen will explode.

banditbdl

06-20-2005, 08:25 PM

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Um, OK. The White Sox would have to up and become a .500 team for Minnesota to catch them.

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It's called August.

Patrick del Poker Grande

06-20-2005, 08:36 PM

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Um, OK. The White Sox would have to up and become a .500 team for Minnesota to catch them.

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It's called August.

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Not to mention 7 games head-to-head in September.

jgunnip

06-20-2005, 09:19 PM

This thread is a joke. Once the Tigers get Gullien and Magglio back, LOOK OUT!!

BONDERMANIA!!

jgunnip

06-20-2005, 09:21 PM

On a serious note.

I see the order of finish as follows
Twins
White Sox
Tigers (84-78) w00t!
Indians
Royals

EdgyOne

06-20-2005, 09:55 PM

Jack of Arcades

06-20-2005, 11:02 PM

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Um, OK. The White Sox would have to up and become a .500 team for Minnesota to catch them.

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It's called August.

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Not to mention 7 games head-to-head in September.

[/ QUOTE ]

Uh, OK. So what are you willing to bet that the White Sox will not be in first at the end of the year?

ThaSaltCracka

06-21-2005, 12:46 AM

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2005 Chicago White Sox = 2001 Seattle Mariners

All smoke and mirrors

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Clearly to early to tell, and are these soxs on pace to win 110+?

DougOzzzz

06-21-2005, 12:51 AM

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Um, OK. The White Sox would have to up and become a .500 team for Minnesota to catch them.

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Are you kidding me? I'd set the over under on the White Sox record from now on at JUST above .500. You can't be serious if you think there's no chance of this happening. This is easily the dumbest thing baseball related you've ever posted.

LoaferGee12

06-21-2005, 02:03 AM

LoaferGee12

06-21-2005, 02:11 AM

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Um, OK. The White Sox would have to up and become a .500 team for Minnesota to catch them.

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It's called August.

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Not to mention 7 games head-to-head in September.

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Yes, those head-to-head games vs the Twins have really hurt the Sox. (4-1)

Mike Cuneo

06-21-2005, 04:04 AM

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Um, OK. The White Sox would have to up and become a .500 team for Minnesota to catch them.

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It's called August.

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Not to mention 7 games head-to-head in September.

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Yes, those head-to-head games vs the Twins have really hurt the Sox. (4-1)

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I do believe the months "August" and "September" were mentioned. We'll see if the Sox are for real then. They have no experience and no WS titles since 1917 so let's wait and see.

Jack of Arcades

06-21-2005, 04:11 AM

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Um, OK. The White Sox would have to up and become a .500 team for Minnesota to catch them.

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Are you kidding me? I'd set the over under on the White Sox record from now on at JUST above .500. You can't be serious if you think there's no chance of this happening. This is easily the dumbest thing baseball related you've ever posted.

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Their pythag record (41-27) is the best in the American League and second best in the bigs (behind St. Louis). Let's say that they're 41-27 team, while you believe that they're a true, say, 35-33 team.

This would mean, then, that their pitching+defense+offense, most likely the first two, has been 35 runs above their true talent levels. I'm not sure why; while it's likely that the staff is playing above their heads

1) they have the best defense in baseball behind them, and
2) they have their best hitter just coming back, anyway

OK, OK, there are 93 games left in the season. Let's say the Sox go 47-46, they'd finish with 94 wins. Let's say the Twins keep their pace (.567). The Twins would win 92 games. They'd have to play .590 ball the rest of the way to tie the sox, and .600 ball the rest of the way to pass them. Now, it's possible that a) The White Sox are an 83 win team and b) the Twins are a 98 win team. I'm not exactly sure why you'd think so given that their pythags last year were 84 and 88 wins respectively.

Look, I grant that it's possible that the Sox are, say, an 84 win team that have played 12 games over their head. I also grant it's possible that the Twins are a 98 win team that have played 3 games below expected. I don't think it's very likely, and I don't think it's what we should expect.

In order for the Twins to pass the sox, playing .567 ball, the Sox will have to play .460 ball the rest of the way.

DougOzzzz

06-21-2005, 04:48 AM

[ QUOTE ]
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Um, OK. The White Sox would have to up and become a .500 team for Minnesota to catch them.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you kidding me? I'd set the over under on the White Sox record from now on at JUST above .500. You can't be serious if you think there's no chance of this happening. This is easily the dumbest thing baseball related you've ever posted.

[/ QUOTE ]

Their pythag record (41-27) is the best in the American League and second best in the bigs (behind St. Louis). Let's say that they're 41-27 team, while you believe that they're a true, say, 35-33 team.

This would mean, then, that their pitching+defense+offense, most likely the first two, has been 35 runs above their true talent levels. I'm not sure why; while it's likely that the staff is playing above their heads

1) they have the best defense in baseball behind them, and
2) they have their best hitter just coming back, anyway

[/ QUOTE ]

Their RS-RA is also much better than their stats would indicate. They've gotten extremely lucky in 3 ways so far:

1. Their players (particularly pitchers) have performed far better than their projected stats.

2. They've scored more runs and allowed fewer than their actual stats would indictate.

3. They've won more games than their RS/RA would indicate.

Based on factors 2 and 3 they've won a whopping 9 games more than they should have to this point. That would actually place them as the 3rd best team in the division, based on their performance JUST this season. BP's playoff odds report gives the ChiSox a 42% chance to lose the division race. And that's not accounting for an expected dropoff in performance.

I don't expect their pitching to be as good the rest of the season as it has been so far. I don't think Frank Thomas makes up for that.

I could be wrong, and maybe the Sox are for real. I see them as around an 85 win team that has had everything go right so far.

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OK, OK, there are 93 games left in the season. Let's say the Sox go 47-46, they'd finish with 94 wins. Let's say the Twins keep their pace (.567). The Twins would win 92 games. They'd have to play .590 ball the rest of the way to tie the sox, and .600 ball the rest of the way to pass them. Now, it's possible that a) The White Sox are an 83 win team and b) the Twins are a 98 win team. I'm not exactly sure why you'd think so given that their pythags last year were 84 and 88 wins respectively.

Look, I grant that it's possible that the Sox are, say, an 84 win team that have played 12 games over their head. I also grant it's possible that the Twins are a 98 win team that have played 3 games below expected. I don't think it's very likely, and I don't think it's what we should expect.

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I don't even believe the Twins are a 98 win team and the Sox are an 83 win team. The bottom line is the difference doesn't have to be NEARLY as large for the Twins to have a good chance to overtake the Sox. Even at very reasonable numbers of say 92 for Minn, and 88 for Chicago, the Twins would have a better than 25% chance to tie or pass Minnesota (not accounting for the fact that they play each other many more games - which would raise the percentage even higher). I happen to believe the actual numbers are closer to 94 and 86, which would give Minnesota a better than 35% chance of catching up.

I'll admit the White Sox are the favorite now, but the Twins, and even Indians, are far from out of it.

You're just not accounting for the variance in the possible W/L records for the rest of the season.

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In order for the Twins to pass the sox, playing .567 ball, the Sox will have to play .460 ball the rest of the way.

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And a true 86 win team will play .460 ball or worse over a 93 game stretch nearly 20% of the time. Your point?

Jack of Arcades

06-21-2005, 06:51 AM

My point is a) we're agreeing, b) you're being a douchebag, and c) Patrick's an idiot. Happy?

Patrick del Poker Grande

06-21-2005, 10:07 AM

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My point is a) we're agreeing, b) you're being a douchebag, and c) Patrick's an idiot. Happy?

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My point is you're entirely too confident in the White Sox. To think that they can't blow a 7.5-game lead in the middle of June is absolutely ridiculous.

Jack of Arcades

06-21-2005, 02:24 PM

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My point is a) we're agreeing, b) you're being a douchebag, and c) Patrick's an idiot. Happy?

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My point is you're entirely too confident in the White Sox. To think that they can't blow a 7.5-game lead in the middle of June is absolutely ridiculous.

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My point is you're entirely too down on the White Sox. To think that they can't hold a 7.5-game lead in the middle of June is absolutely ridiculous.

See how that goes?

Can they blow the lead? Sure. Will they? Well, it's a lot less likely than some people would indicate.

MarkL444

06-21-2005, 03:30 PM

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This thread is a joke. Once the Tigers get Gullien and Magglio back, LOOK OUT!!

BONDERMANIA!!

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so true.

LoaferGee12

06-21-2005, 03:55 PM

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This thread is a joke. Once the Tigers get Gullien and Magglio back, LOOK OUT!!

BONDERMANIA!!

[/ QUOTE ]

How long till Guillen is back? He's on my FT.

MarkL444

06-23-2005, 09:47 AM

[ QUOTE ]
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This thread is a joke. Once the Tigers get Gullien and Magglio back, LOOK OUT!!

BONDERMANIA!!

[/ QUOTE ]

How long till Guillen is back? He's on my FT.

[/ QUOTE ]

tomorrow supposedly

Schneids

06-24-2005, 07:48 AM

Expert baseball analyst Nate Silver believes the WSox are going to start a slide any time now.

Jack of Arcades

06-24-2005, 08:02 AM

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Expert baseball analyst Nate Silver believes the WSox are going to start a slide any time now.

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"Slide"? I doubt the Sox will go on some extended losing streak. If by slide you and Nate mean they'll start playing around .530 ball, then I agree. They're *still* 9.5 up.

With every passing game the Twins don't catch up to the White Sox their chances of catching up get smaller and smaller. They have to catch up and quickly. It doesn't matter if the White Sox stop playing like they are, the Twins are only 10-10 in June.