Play for the jackpot or the pot

[Percula]

Playing some 7Stud h/l yesterday and the house has a bad beat jackpot on the table that is KKKK or better beaten. The jackpot is $64K and pays 40% to the loser, 20% to the winner, 20% to the table and 20% to the floor.

This hand comes up...

I have 7s10s in the hole and Js n the door, I bring in, calling station does what he does best, solid player calls, furstrated solid player calls and has As in the door. By 5th I have a straight flush and the frustrated player is showing AAA, the calling station is showing a wheel draw (345) and the solid player is showing KKK.

6th street is a brick for all, AAA bets out. Whats your play, are you a calling station or are you pumping it?

[d10]

Pump it. AAA and KKK probably aren't getting away from their hands with 1 more card to come and they may have a full house or quads already, in which case they're definitely not folding.

[BigBaitsim (milo)]

They are going nowhere. Jam it.

[Percula]

Thanks guys I feel better, I did pump it up, the KKK droped, and the calling station did was he does best, 7th street brought a skicking K to the AAA and the case A to me. The KKK told us he folded total crap in the hole and knew he was beat.

I was kind of sick about it, missed out on $12K and well could only feel better when I thought that it was the right play at the time. Oh well next time I guess.

[Bremen]

What, you're afraid your opponent will fold trip A? If he has the boat he's gonna reraise you. If he draws to quads he'll draw to quads regardless of whether you pump it or not.

[Chipr777]

Low limit stud is a nit game to begin with and BB jackpots destroy the way the game should be played. I saw a player today fold and show 7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif10 /images/graemlins/spade.gif on 5th street to 2 players that were showing Q-Q-Q and K-K-K. He said he was drawing to a 2 outer and couldn't call $5 /images/graemlins/confused.gif Neither player made quads but I would think with a 50k bad beat jackpot pot odds were there. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif Bad beat jackpots do change the way the game is played. Conventional pot odds can be thrown out the window. 1 and 2 outers to monster hands you HAVE to play if you think anyone has quads or better. Checking down made quads and straight flushes in the hopes someone else catches a monster is common. The problem is you dont get paid off on your big hands trying to get someone else to catch. In a game where the rake is so large you have to get paid on your big hands. My advice? Play the game and forget the jackpot. If it happens it happens. Playing or dealing a game that the whole tables is waiting for rolled up cards is just plain stupid. I've dealt many stud games when the jackpot gets real big where in 30 minutes you get to 4th street maybe 3 times. The low card brings in $1 and it folds back around. Fun times. Nothing like 8 70 year old men nitpicking about "that damn hold'em" detroying poker. /images/graemlins/shocked.gif

[d10]

The cards would be just as likely to come out A-K as they were to come out K-A. If that had been the case you would have felt even worse that you didn't jam the pot, then not only did you play the hand badly in terms of poker theory but you also cost yourself the jackpot that you were trying to win. This was an unfortunate result, but you played it correctly.

[Sykes]

you people are awful.

why the hell would you jam the pot with a straight flush when you want AAA and KKK to stay in?

especially when your straight flush is hidden and you can bust the player if he fills up or makes quads.

[d10]

Because AAA and KKK will most likely put us on either a straight or a flush but probably not both, which means they're probably sticking around to see if they can fill up, that is assuming they don't have a full house or quads already. Also if the guy who has the wheel draw doesn't have his low yet it is critical to force him to pay or fold. Ignoring the jackpot, raising here is the only correct decision.

[Sykes]

[ QUOTE ]
Because AAA and KKK will most likely put us on either a straight or a flush but probably not both, which means they're probably sticking around to see if they can fill up, that is assuming they don't have a full house or quads already. Also if the guy who has the wheel draw doesn't have his low yet it is critical to force him to pay or fold. Ignoring the jackpot, raising here is the only correct decision.

[/ QUOTE ]

First, I misread that it was Stud H/L to Stud. Still doesn't change my response.

You cannot ignore the jackpot. I will take a $100 loss if there is a 1% chance I'm winning $100,000.

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Because AAA and KKK will most likely put us on either a straight or a flush but probably not both, which means they're probably sticking around to see if they can fill up, that is assuming they don't have a full house or quads already. Also if the guy who has the wheel draw doesn't have his low yet it is critical to force him to pay or fold. Ignoring the jackpot, raising here is the only correct decision.

[/ QUOTE ]

First, I misread that it was Stud H/L to Stud. Still doesn't change my response.

You cannot ignore the jackpot. I will take a $100 loss if there is a 1% chance I'm winning $100,000.

[/ QUOTE ]

People with good JP draws don't fold. The guy who folded KKK is an idiot. The JP is now counted as part of the pot and used as pot odds to draw to your hand. slight adjusment for a misread.

You will miss that JP a helluvalot more often than not. You're losing money thinking you shouldn't jam it with someone who should clearly stay in and probably will. Most will stay in as many people are JP happy.

I see many, many people lose tons of chips by just checking and calling.

I love it when people check the turn with quads in hold 'em because they don't want to 'scare any possibilities' out. Gimme a break. Who's folding a set on the turn? Nobody. This is one reason JP games are nice. People will chase. Take advantage of them. Don't become one of them.

b

[steamboatin]

Like almost every question regarding poker, it depends upon the situation.

I hit the bad beat jackpot at Caesar's IN Memorial day weekend and it was the weakest tightest table I have ever played. I flopped a full house and a raise would have sent them all running. i wasn't thinking about the JP, I was just trying to get paid for my big hand.

I got lucky and a guy made a straight flush on the river and he might have stayed for a raise with an open ended straight flush draw but the callers would have been long gone and the pot wouldn't have been big enough to qualify for the JP anyway.

I bet the river, the straight flush raised but only called my reraise with the stone cold absolute nuts.

[Runner Runner]

With a jackpot that big, you have to consider how the guy with KKK plays. If you think there is any chance at all that he folds then you have to just call because around 4% of the time he is going to make quads and you are going to get around $12,000 grand. That's e.v of about $500 (12,000*4%) you are passing up, if he folds. Tough one, though because I don't see how he can fold.

I see similar mistakes in online games when there is a promotion where the winner of the pot gets a certain special prize. A few years back I was playing $0.50/$1 stud at Paradise Poker and they announced that the winner of the next hand was getting a seat in a double shootout where the winner got a trip and buyin to play in a $10,000 buy in tournament. Well, essentially that was like them throwing $150 in the pot ($15,000/10/10). I came out jamming and bought the pot on 5th. The other players all made ridiculous folds because they didn't consider the extra prize as part of the pot.

[d10]

[ QUOTE ]
You cannot ignore the jackpot. I will take a $100 loss if there is a 1% chance I'm winning $100,000.

[/ QUOTE ]

I will too, but in this case the jackpot is only worth $12,000 to you. KKK has at least a 3% chance of making quads, so you are losing about $360 if he folds, but I don't think he folds often enough to not raise here, or when he does fold I think it's because he knows he is definitely behind to AAA and sandwiched between a likely lock low hand and would have also folded for 1 bet. So by raising, I don't think we change how KKK plays his hand very often. It would be nice to know what limit this was played at. Obviously playing 100/200 is a clear raise but at micro limits you might just want to play for the jackpot. But even at small stakes this is probably a close decision at best, not enough to make me get away from playing solid poker.

[Percula]

It was 4/8 with a full kill in effect on the hand. Its hard to get most of these older players to play much higher than 10/20 or a 1-20 spread.

I will have to think this situation thru a little more next time, especally since they are pouring money into the jackpots now from the promotional fund. We will likely see a >$300K pot in a couple of months.

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
It was 4/8 with a full kill in effect on the hand. Its hard to get most of these older players to play much higher than 10/20 or a 1-20 spread.

I will have to think this situation thru a little more next time, especally since they are pouring money into the jackpots now from the promotional fund. We will likely see a >$300K pot in a couple of months.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would be suprised if it ever gets over 150k before it hits.

b

[Percula]

[ QUOTE ]


I would be suprised if it ever gets over 150k before it hits.

b

[/ QUOTE ]

It was at $360K last year when it was hit. But I agree with you, unless they have change the way they are funding it, which may well be the case as they have over $600K in the poker rooms promotional fund right now and people have been getting pretty vocal about it being locked up.