Who folds this river? QQ top set

[madscout]

Pacific $5/$10 Limit Hold'em - 6 handed

edit: no read on button, he's new to table

Dealt to Hero UTG+1 Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q/images/graemlins/club.gif
UTG calls, Hero raises, CO calls, Button 3-bets, Blinds fold, UTG caps, madscout calls, CO calls, Button calls

Flop: (17.4 SB) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue"> 4 players </font>
UTG bets, Hero calls, CO calls, Button raises, UTG calls, Hero 3-bets, CO calls, Button calls, UTG calls

Turn: (14.7 BB) 10/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue"> 4 players </font>
UTG checks, Hero bets, CO calls, Button raises, UTG calls, Hero calls, UTG calls

River: (22.7 BB) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue"> 4 players </font>
UTG folds, Hero checks, CO bets, Button raises, Hero...

[jediael]

don't fold

[shadow29]

I would go ahead and raise this flop the first time around. The pot is huge and your hand is sorta vulnerable. I want to win this pot now. I also think it makes your hand a lot easier to play.

Button could raise AK here on the flop, but when it's two back to him you'll find out some information. (I know it's not the best reason to raise, but it's part of the package deal with a value raise). Granted, he'll still call with AK getting 10:1 (at least), but whatever.

I dunno about the turn. Certainly there are hands he'll raise here other than AK? JJ certainly (3 combos), possibly AQ (after picking up a gutshot on the turn?), but that's sorta unlikely given that there's only one queen (4 combos). But let's cut that in half to 2 combos. I don't know if he 3-bets TT, so let's give that 1.5/3 combos. AK has 16 combos. There's also KK and AA. Both could play like this since he picked up a gutshot on the turn. There are 12 combos of KK and AA. Thus, there are about as many combos of hands that you beat and hands that you're behind. You can't fold, however, since you have 10 outs to a huge hand.

On the river, CO comes to life on a weird card which could mean he has AK but who knows. I think that AA could play like this. CO sorta worries me, however. But given no reads we'll assume he's a donkey. /images/graemlins/grin.gif I'd just call here. The pot is getting quite large and there are hands like AA, KK, and JJ that you beat and to which you would hate folding.

edit- typed all this stuff out and forgot to recommend a line. I'd raise the turn for value. Betting the river is good. Raising the turn is good because there are 16 combos that beat you, and 18.5 combos that you beat.

[Paxosmotic]

It's either AA KK or AK. I'd say it's even. And since the pot is offering much better than 2:1, you need to call this with absolute certainty. I'll take a stab and say you were shown KK by a by that time pissed off individual since he couldn't move you off your hand.

[einbert]

Three-bet the turn, bet the river.

[madscout]

normally I'd say this is an easy call, given the size of the pot. However, I think the river action makes the decision closer. The villain has been bet into on both the turn and the river, and both times he raised. I can't really see him doing this with AA or KK. In my mind he had AK or JJ.

AK = 16 combinations
JJ = 3 combinations

I also thought JJ was less likely since villain could have been playing a wierd AK, and I certainly could have QQ. Discounting JJ by half makes this a close call, discounting it by 2 makes it a close fold. I folded. Discuss. /images/graemlins/mad.gif

[madscout]

[ QUOTE ]
Three-bet the turn

[/ QUOTE ]

If villain caps, check call the river?

[einbert]

[ QUOTE ]
normally I'd say this is an easy call, given the size of the pot. However, I think the river action makes the decision closer. The villain has been bet into on both the turn and the river, and both times he raised. I can't really see him doing this with AA or KK. In my mind he had AK or JJ.

AK = 16 combinations
JJ = 3 combinations

I also thought JJ was less likely since villain could have been playing a wierd AK, and I certainly could have QQ. Discounting JJ by half makes this a close call, discounting it by 2 makes it a close fold. I folded. Discuss. /images/graemlins/mad.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

You say he is an unknown, yet you can put him on such a narrow range of hands on this board?

I've seen players do this with KK, AA, QJ, AQ, TT, 22, QT, etc. You can't give an unknown player so much credit, I think it will lead to a ton of bad folds.

[ QUOTE ]
If he caps the turn check call the river?

[/ QUOTE ]
Yep unless he boats up.

[madscout]

[ QUOTE ]
You say he is an unknown, yet you can put him on such a narrow range of hands on this board?

[/ QUOTE ]

I had a gut feeling I'd get this exact response, but the point is well taken. I fealt like it was a borderline fold at the time.

[shadow29]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You say he is an unknown, yet you can put him on such a narrow range of hands on this board?

[/ QUOTE ]

I had a gut feeling I'd get this exact response, but the point is well taken. I fealt like it was a borderline fold at the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Honestly, I don't think that you can have a borderline fold in a 25 BB pot.

[madscout]

In hindsight I agree with all the responses here. I wanted see if my feelings were swayed by the results and it appears they were. Button had AK. &lt;shrugs&gt;

~madscout

[ihardlyknowher]

First of all, I would lead the flop.

I would call the river. It looks like Button had either AK and was going for a free card on the flop or has an overpair (maybe JJ). CO is obviously a donkey and the Button probably knows this and may be trying to force you out of the pot. I think Button will show you AA, KK, or JJ here greater than 10% of the time.

[Trix]

you think he raise any AK on the flop ?

raise the flop btw

[imported_PP123]

I don't want to be harsh on you, but folding this is criminal. And if you have to ask a question like this, maybe you shouldn't play as high as $5-$10

[Dave D]

Check/raise the turn. What possibly has you beat? A turned straight? Doubt it, and even then you still have redraw outs on the river and will probably be able to get an extra bet when he thinks he has the best hand with his straight.

Raise the river, same reason as before. You'll have the best hand enough of the time.

Edit: Actually nevermind, just check/call the river. Can't fold, pot's too big.

[ihardlyknowher]

[ QUOTE ]
Raise the river, same reason as before. You'll have the best hand enough of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

For this to be true you would need to be best more than 33% of the time if you get 2 callers or more than 50% of the time if you get one caller. Given the previous betting rounds, a raise here is excess action IMO.

[MitchL]

your call on flop was horrible. This is an action flop. especially considering the preflop action. you especially cant give AK a cheap card especially if he has AKh. Im not sure but u might have cost yourself the ot by the way u played it

[madscout]

[ QUOTE ]
your call on flop was horrible. This is an action flop. especially considering the preflop action. you especially cant give AK a cheap card especially if he has AKh. Im not sure but u might have cost yourself the ot by the way u played it

[/ QUOTE ]

My plan was to 3-bet / cap the flop when (if) it came back around, and if not, I'd be able to raise on the turn to better protect my hand (ala HEPFAP). Raising on the flop folds AK (suited in hearts or not) like never.

[madscout]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't want to be harsh on you, but folding this is criminal. And if you have to ask a question like this, maybe you shouldn't play as high as $5-$10

[/ QUOTE ]

Thank you for your honesty. I agree now that this fold was indeed criminal.

~madscout