Hand from my first 109. Risk vs. reward.

[octaveshift]

I have been on a bit of a heater in the 20s and 50s, so I decided to play a 100 for fun last night.

Anyway, here is a hand that came up and had me scratching my head. I think the 10x BB raise from MP is *highly* suspect. I always read a raise like this as a weak steal, because if it was a made hand, why wouldn't he push? (It's like he's leaving his 550 chips behind as a parachute in case somebody comes over the top.)

1. He had minraised my blind an orbit earlier, but I shut him out by pushing over the top of him.

2. I put him on a weak ace.

3. At worst, I think it's a race here, at best, I think I am a 70/30 favorite.

4. If I call and win, I am in great shape for the bubble. (GigaBUTT, anyone?)

Would love to know what you would do, so I have included a poll.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG (t4633)
MP (t1815)
Button (t1356)
SB (t455)
Hero (t1741)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises to t1200</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero....

[Sabrazack]

Even if it is a steal attempt you are at best a coinflip and may be way behind. There is no way he will fold preflop if you push so you are at best a coinflip. I would fold this. I simply see raises like these as a push, don't try to read too much into it.

[octaveshift]

[ QUOTE ]
you are at best a coinflip.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not really. I am either:

80% ahead of a lower PP
70% ahead something like A4
55% ahead facing 2 overcards

80% behind, facing an overpair

[BadPenguin]

I just ran this scenario through eastbay's SnG Power Tools analyzer. Putting the MP on pushing any pair, any ace, or any two face cards (and assuming that he'll call your all-in reraise, so this is functionally an all-in here...) calling with 66 comes back as slightly -$EV (-1.2%, or -$11.02 for the 100+9).

According to the tool (with the above assumptions) you need to get to 88, AJs, or AQo for calling to be marginally +$EV.

I would certainly have folded 66 here, but that's just me.

[freemoney]

i dont like it, i am overaggro in the sense of pushing and stuff but i dont like calling with these stack sizes, if anything him leaving some behind is more of a sign of strength then "saving" 600. too deep to call here.

[stupidsucker]

I understand your thought process, but keep it simple.

It really doesnt matter if he pushes or if he bets 10x the BB, he is pot commited and will call your push. At the 109s people do stuff like this to intice you to push on them with crap.

Sometimes they turn out to be idiots.

This is a fold, you know it is a fold, and you know why.

Tbis is a fold at every level without a stellar read. I mean STELLAR!

Hope this helps. My blunt post is meant to be zenlike rather then pricklike. I have a hard time with the difference.

Where is the forum bot?

[durron597]

Normally such a big raise means medium pocket pair. You have a low pocket pair. What do you think you should do?

[curtains]

This is a very clear fold.

[microbet]

My initial thought is you need like TT+, AK to push back. Anyone else wanna put a calling/pushing range for hero?

[Myst]

If he puts him on a pure steal attempt (one with any two), then 77+, AT+ would be appropriate.

I doubt this is the case though. Pretty clear fold in my book.

[microbet]

Without any of the setup info, that range might be a little loose even, but it seems like villian's range might not be too tight here.

[DonButtons]

Easy easy easy fold.

Blinds are only 150, even with 200, I fold....

[octaveshift]

[ QUOTE ]

This is a fold, you know it is a fold, and you know why.

Tbis is a fold at every level without a stellar read. I mean STELLAR!

Hope this helps. My blunt post is meant to be zenlike rather then pricklike. I have a hard time with the difference.


[/ QUOTE ]

No offense taken from any of the feedback. Even if you *try* to be a prick, it's OK. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Two things:

1. My read was correct. I pushed, villain went into deep thought and eventually called with A3. (Woohoo!)

2. I knew this was a fold, and I know it is a clear fold at every level. EXCEPT this was my first $109, and I had convinced myself that I was not going to "play scared."

Stupid, I know.

Sadly, I think it was sheer arrogance and bullheadedness that made me call. "How dare you try to steal my blind?!! I'LL SHOW YOU WHAT HAPPENS WHEN YOU FUGGING STEAL MY BLIND!!!!"

/images/graemlins/laugh.gif

Anyway, lesson learned. Next time I need to just play my game, and stop making stupid calls because I am nervous.