First hand. What kind of advantage do you need to call an all-in?

[jcm4ccc]

It's the 1st hand of a SnG. What kind of advantage do you need to call an all-in bet? Consider this:

With an 80/20 advantage, you need to get into the money 50% of the time that you double up in order to average 40% ITM overall (.80 * .50 = .40)

With a 70/30 advantage, you need to get into the money 57% of the time that you double up to maintain a 40% ITM.

With a 60/40 advantage, you need to get into the money 67% of the time that you double up to maintain a 40% ITM.

With a 55/45 advantage, you need to get into the money 73% of the time that you double up to maintain a 40% ITM.

[pearljam]

Yea but when you double up early, your odds to win the tournament are much much higher, because you can steal blinds and bully the table more effectively, and you dont have to make desperate moves in level 4. You might make the money less when you call all in's early with 65% to win, but you will win alot more tournaments.

[Myst]

If there was only a way to data mine how often a person makes it ITM after doubling up....

But this brings up a good point. Early coinflips are a bad thing. Thats why you dont call with AK.

[chisness]

Built into that 40% is also times that you get outdrawn or lose in tough spots. So it might be better to say that if you double up early you want to make the money, say, 60% of the time.

I was thinking about that 40% number earlier. What are thoughts on getting out early about 20% of the time then having to make it to the money about 50% of the time after the higher (level4+) blind levels come up.

[45suited]

Very interesting...

Like everybody else here probably, I avoid coinflips like the plague early in tournaments.

However, at the 11s for sure and possibly at the 22s, I'm pretty confident that the times that I double up in level one, I'm ITM 2/3 of the time or more. (Don't have the numbers unfortunately, so I'm just guessing here.)

I'm sure that this wasn't the intent of your statistics, but this makes me more likely to call a button push on the first hand of the game if I'm sitting in the BB with AKo. My normal play if this were to happen would be to just give up the 15 chips, move on, and outplay the guy later.

[Benholio]

Well, if you go by ICM, your EV goes from .1 (duh) to 0.1844 when you knock someone out on the first hand. Going by that number, yuo need 54.23% chance to double up to be worth it. That would be a good metric for an 'average' player.

For a 10% roi, 20% roi player, your initial EV is obviously higher than .1 (.11 or .12), so you would need a better chance. The hard part I guess is figuring out what your EV is with 1600 chips taking into account your ROI. I always wished ICM could be manipulated this way. This would swing some of those hands that ICM say are winners to call with but you KNOW it isn't a good call because you can do better later.

[Myst]

Well, I know I would take 70/30, because I would definitely call with KK if A9 was flipped face up.

[John Hurst]

Very succinct summary of the ITM situation - I like it. The counterpoint to the argument would state that doubling up gives you a better chance of winning as opposed to 3rd. With the 5/3/2 payout structure it would be interesting to analyze. I agree that coin flips should be avoided but feel that edges need to be exploited because of the 5/3/2 structure.

[1C5]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, I know I would take 70/30, because I would definitely call with KK if A9 was flipped face up.

[/ QUOTE ]

I call with KK all the time.

[freemoney]

theres also a time issue.

[PokerCat69]

asking what type of advantage you need is the wrong question since you don't know what villian is playing. How do you determine what your advantage is? The other day I saw a guy push Q3o the first hand of an SNG and show the table.

A better question to ask is which hands do you call an allin with on the first hand. I'd call with AA/KK.

[lastchance]

If you don't call with QQ, I think you're making a very big mistake. I also call JJ and AK, because first hand all-ins are fishy. :P

I want a 55-60% edge, BTW. ITM is important, but getting into first also increases equity a lot.

[adanthar]

55/45 may be a tiny bit small but I *am* calling QQ if AKo is flipped face up.