Aussie Champs Hand #3

[DMR]

This hand comes from the main event $AU 10,000 No Limit Holdem, 1 hour levels, 5000 start bank with a 5000 "2nd chance". It's on the 4th or 5th level and the second chance period is over so the average stack should be around 11,000 after about 10 or so players have exited from the 122 starts. First prize approx $400k (over $US 200k). I wasn't actually in this hand but it involves Toby A a well-known player here down under. Toby already has a numerous wins and final table finishes including a win at the Legends of Poker this year.

Blinds are 100/200 with two limpers. Toby with a nice stack of 18,000 raises 2000 with KK in late position. All fold to one of the early limpers (EL) who calls. This early limper is a semi regular at these tournaments that I would put in the recreational player category.

Flop is: 2 4 8 (rainbow).

Some more information about EL, he is the chip leader here at this table and has about 25,000 is chips, he's been hitting some hands and has busted a player. Also twice already he has come out slightly over betting the pot on the flop with good over pairs like JJ, QQ.

EL bets 7,000. If you were in Tobys shoes, now what given this is a pretty serious tournament?

[ohkanada]

Well 2 pair seems out of the question.

A set is possible but most would check and let the initial raiser bet. Of course a "recreational" player may bet out but 10k seems steep for a pure rec player. Betting allows AK to muck. Overpair seems most likely. AA seems very unlikely but 99-QQ is possible. Other pairs are also possible. Other hands could be A3s or A8s.

So based on what I see as likely hands I am not folding. With only 2-7 outs on most hands I give him, calling is not terrible but will he call anything else if he misses on the turn?

I probably raise all-in and hopes he calls with one of the hands I put on him

Ken Poklitar.

[DMR]

Exactly right and that's how I would probably have played it.

Toby raised all-in, unfortunately, EP had a pair for fours and had flopped a set and trapped Toby for all his money.

Very well played by the EP, I would have thought he'd have slow played his set and Toby could maybe have gotten off his hand..

Wonder if anyone would quietly muck here? This is a big comp you have plenty of chips why tussle with the chip leader at this early stage..

[Greg (FossilMan)]

If my honest read is I have KK and he most likely has QQ-99, I sure don't muck.

The fact that this is a big event is irrelevant. If anything, that is MORE reason to play on. If the field were super-weak, you might be able to pass up on some high risk but +EV opportunities, and still make money by winning other hands later. In a tough field event, you have less room to pass up +EV opportunities just because they're risky.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[-Oz-]

Question: were there any additional antes that would require this big of a raise or just the stated blinds?

If there are no antes, Toby got himself into this problem by making his first raise too big. If he had made it say, 800, the pot would have been 2100 if one limper had folded. Now if EL bets 2000 - 3000, Toby could make a big raise to 6000 - 9000 and reconsider when EL calls or pushes in.

I'm not saying that the result would have been any different, but by making the pot smaller, it would have left more room to get more information and possibly escape the trap.

-Oz-