Interesting PStars turbo flop decision

[durron597]

No reads, because this is a turbo and people have been stalling /images/graemlins/confused.gif

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

MP1 (t1365)
MP2 (t4960)
CO (t1685)
Button (t515)
SB (t905)
Hero (t1415)
UTG (t1220)
UTG+1 (t1435)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises to t200</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls t200, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls t150, Hero calls t100.

Flop: (t800) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets t100</font>, Hero calls t100, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises to t1165</font>, CO folds, SB calls t605 (All-In),

[AlphaWice]

hero has 12BB if folding.

if you think a 4/6/spade wins, you have 9 + 3 + 3 = 15 outs, which is enough to call. Else, the decision is more difficult.

[KramerTM]

Minraising this pre-flop dictates a call wih a flop like that. No ifs ands or buts.

[pokerlaw]

dont mind the preflop call, but i usually fold that w 46. I fold w/o thinking once all the action comes along after the flop...

[KramerTM]

Oops. Thought you had the SB's stack. With a bigger stack this is a tougher call. I'd if the blinds move up in 4 or less hands, then call. Otherwise, fold.

BTW... from the flop on, we move on after SB bets the flop, right?

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
dont mind the preflop call, but i usually fold that w 46. I fold w/o thinking once all the action comes along after the flop...

[/ QUOTE ]

Then this is a leak in your game. Against any hand but a set I have 14 outs, except a naked flush draw which I am ahead of right now anyway since I have a pair and two of his flush draw outs.

The question is what to do against *two* opponents.

[lastchance]

Against two opponents, you need far less outs to call. I think you have that here, unless you suspect higher flush draw.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
Against two opponents, you need far less outs to call. I think you have that here, unless you suspect higher flush draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's the issue. Against two opponents, how likely is the bigger flush draw? Obviously it's just overs + flush draw that he went in with, would he call an allin with just that?

[lastchance]

Meh, I don't know, I close my eyes and call, and hope I have clean outs.

I think you should have pushed on the flop, BTW. t800 in the pot, and taking this down or getting 2:1 here is real nice.

[adanthar]

Higher flush draws just aren't anywhere near as threatening when the board is 842 with a PF raise and a minbet.

He might have one but 99 or even 55 is just so much more likely it doesn't matter and you're calling anyway.

[curtains]

btw I definitely fold this preflop.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
Higher flush draws just aren't anywhere near as threatening when the board is 842 with a PF raise and a minbet.

He might have one but 99 or even 55 is just so much more likely it doesn't matter and you're calling anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here's the problem. I have very little equity when one opponent has a higher flush draw and the other one has an overpair.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1039114
pokenum -h 6s 4s - qh qd - as js -- 8s 4d 2s
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing 8s 2s 4d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
6s 4s 162 17.94 741 82.06 0 0.00 0.179
Qd Qh 392 43.41 511 56.59 0 0.00 0.434
As Js 349 38.65 554 61.35 0 0.00 0.386

That's because the reason I have an advantage against one is hurt by the other - is that exact situation enough of a reason to fold?

If MP1 is trying to grab the pot with a naked AK, it's much better:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1039117
pokenum -h 6s 4s - ad kc - as js -- 8s 4d 2s
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing 8s 2s 4d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
6s 4s 443 49.06 460 50.94 0 0.00 0.491
Kc Ad 108 11.96 795 88.04 0 0.00 0.120
As Js 352 38.98 551 61.02 0 0.00 0.390

If I'm against two overpairs:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1039120
pokenum -h 6s 4s - kd kc - qs qh -- 8s 4d 2s
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing 8s 2s 4d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
6s 4s 418 46.29 485 53.71 0 0.00 0.463
Kc Kd 394 43.63 509 56.37 0 0.00 0.436
Qs Qh 91 10.08 812 89.92 0 0.00 0.101

----------------------------------------

It's really the mix of the flush draw AND the overpair that worries me. I think that MP1 really has to have an overpair or AK here, so really it comes down to whether I think the SB has a flush draw or not, and whether MP1 has AK.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]

btw I definitely fold this preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm getting 7:1 with a suited connector. You sure about that?

[adanthar]

Yeah, I know, and SB is gonna have a flush draw relatively rarely given the fact that it's an 842 board and his range now has a billion small pairs in it. You need a tell that the donkbet is a draw to fold here and most of the time it's not forthcoming.

Also, I've made that call before but I am far more likely to make it with something slightly better (say, 87) and I think it's very very thin.

[BradleyT]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

btw I definitely fold this preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm getting 7:1 with a suited connector. You sure about that?

[/ QUOTE ]

What good is 7:1 when you don't know how to play it post-flop /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]

What good is 7:1 when you don't know how to play it post-flop /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

I wasn't expecting *two* allins in front of me.

[durron597]

I called, figuring the call is only wrong if I am against exactly a bigger flush draw and an overpair, and that was unlikely enough to make the call correct.

MP1 had A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif K/images/graemlins/club.gif
SB had A/images/graemlins/spade.gif J/images/graemlins/spade.gif

My pair of 4s was the best hand and it held up. I'm still not sure my call was correct though.