No limit hand analysis

[J2Joe]

I was playing in a 3 and 5 no limit holdem game. I flopped a big hand and I now think I probably made the right move, but I am not sure so I would appreciate comments.

I checked in the big blind with 6c5s. There were 3 other callers. The little blind threw it away so I was first to act. The player to the left is by far the best player that plays in the game. He had about $3500 in front of him. The player to his left is tight and predictable. He had about $390. The fourth caller is a very aggressive player but very loose. He had about $4500 in front of him. I started the pot with around $3300.

The flop came: 4c 7c 8h giving me a straight.
I opened for $10 dollars into the $23 pot hoping to draw out a raise. The good player to my right raised $20 making it 30 to go. Both of the other players called. When it got to me I raised $300. I took down the $120 pot right then. My thinking was that the raiser had to have at least had 2 pair, probably better because he would not play 78 in that position. The tight player almost certainly had a flush draw giving them a very good chance of beating me by the river. The 3rd player could of had anything, but most likely he was calling with a long shot draw due to the the deep money in my stack and the player to my left.

The player to the left then told me that he had a set of 4's and made a big lay down. I have no reason not to believe this based on knowing the player and the way he acted. The tight player said he had a big draw so let’s assume it was a flush draw. The 3rd player most likely had a longshot because he said nothing and he usually does.

Although I didn't like my play at the time, I now think that this is such a precarious situation that a raise letting them know that I had a big hand was a good move. Let me know what you think.

[happyjaypee]

I don't like your play.

In your spot, I would have sandbagged it, get rivered and moan about my bad luck /forums/images/icons/wink.gif

-Happy /forums/images/icons/laugh.gif

[Mikey]

well when you raise in that spot, you almost announce what you have. But you know what, despite what anyone else says. I think you played it correctly. Why should you give a free card, to

(1) a person who can make a better straight
(2) a full house to two pair or a set
(3) to a person with a flush draw

Now had the flop been rainbow, then I think raising in that spot probably would not have been the very best play. But so what.....

Also you said that some of the players were very good, maybe you had a tell which gave away the strength of your hand right away.

I think you played it right.....be happy to pick up $120. You can play more and more orbits of poker and invest it to see more flops.

[Guy McSucker]

I'm going to do the beginnings of a mathematical analysis of this for my own interest. I'd appreciate comments, and I hope others are interested too.

If you're against a set and a flush draw, you will have the best hand at the river 40% of the time.

If you just call the bet, there will be $140 in the pot so your equity is $56. That means you win $84 by raising enough to get everybody out. Can't be bad.

You can match this by getting another $210 of their money in the pot with two cards to come. So, if you raise $105 and get called by the set and the flush draw (which seems likely: once the set calls, the flush draw probably will), your equity is the same as it was before.

If you raise just $70 and get three callers, again it's more or less the same, if we assume the final caller isn't going to win...

If only one of them calls, your equity increases since you win a much larger percentage of the time.

So if you make a pot-sized raise, say $150, and get called, you've made some money. In this situation, though, you have more chance to outplay your opponents and profit further; they also have the chance to outplay you. So you have the same equity going in to card four as you would if you'd taken it down, and now everything depends on the cards that fall and your read. Can you get away from it if the board pairs on fourth street? Or if the flush comes? If only one of them calls, you won't know whether to bail on the flush or the board pair. Arrgh.

How should the analysis conclude?

Personally, I don't like my read, so I would prefer to take it down on the flop.

Guy.

[ben mo]

First of all, it's very important how deep you are, which you don't mention, but let's assume you're also a deep stack.

Okay, so I don't agree with some of the other posters. When you flop a straight and other deep stacks have a set, 2pr, a draw, whatever, you need to be thinking "take all their money" -- and sometimes that means risking the pot.

I think there are two viable ways to play this hand, and the way you played isn't one of them:

Raise the pot: you don't do this with the hopes of getting two callers and slightly increasing your e.v., as another poster mentioned, but in the hopes that someone will re-raise you! So your worst-case scenario is that you get callers (high e.v.) but you have to play poker on the turn. Your best-case scenario is a gigantic pot in which you're a substantial favorite. Raise 3x the pot and you're turning your cards face-up -- no one is going to make a mistake.

Call: Particularly in cash no-limit games, gambling the pot can be very profitable. True, your opponents have a lot of outs, but you have more! On the turn it is likely that you will still have the nuts, AND that you'll get continuing action. In this case, for example, your opponent with the set wasn't going to check behind when a blank comes on the turn -- you'd at least get a pot-sized bet out of him, if not his whole stack when he's drawing with one card to come. In fact, when you "just call" on the flop, it will lead most people with a set to think they have the nuts if there is a two flush on the flop and no flush card comes on the turn, since they assume anyone who flopped a straight would "protect their hand." When you're raking their stack your way, they'll say disgustingly "how could you not raise on the flop with that board?" Of course, if you have trouble knowing when to lay down a straight on a flushed or paired board, this might not be a good play for you.

Either way, don't be afraid to build a pot.

my 2c
b

[Diplomat]

I think I am split between your play and making a weaker re-raise to try to trap...maybe a re-raise of around 150 or something. If you get re-raised, go all-in right there. If you get called and the turn is a blank, I'd go all-in on the turn.

Of course, if the turn pairs the board and makes the flush, you've got trouble. /forums/images/icons/tongue.gif

just my two amateur cents

[limon]

your 10 bet cost you alot. you have a good hand with that flop to play very fast. id a bet out 30 then the set is gonna make it 100 straight. now the big draw still might call, either way you got a much bigger pot comin back to you. now I re-raise at this point the full pot, i dont overbet the pot, no reason unless your aginst the type of player who views an overbet as weakness then i'll do it. im happy giving a set or flush very poor odds to draw. if i get called a i put the caller on top set and play accordingly. if all fold i take down a much bigger pot. playing the nuts sometimes takes courage. one of the biggest pots of my life was won raising the flop with quads (not that it is the right play every time)

[Matt Flynn]

When you flop the nuts you are going after someone's whole stack, not some pissant ante pot. Given where you were at, I would've raised much less, maybe $100 more to get the pot big enough. Let 'em call. You're not going to put in a big bet on the turn unless a blank comes.

But limon's play is much, much better. You want to go all in with this hand! Make it possible by betting the $30. Then when it gets back to you reraise $300. The set and flush draw will likely call or even raise (crazier things have happened, and there's nothing like a set to induce bad play). Play to bust someone.

If you had less than $1500 behind and the raiser was aggressive you could also flat call. You've got perfect position on the raiser because any bet from him goes through the field before you act. If the board pairs or the flush draw hits you check-fold having lost $100, dramatically reducing your risk of getting busted. If a blank comes and you check, the raiser will probably protect his hand because he wants the flush draws out. He and any callers won't see your straight til you come over the top and then may call you anyway, plus now you get maybe $1200 even if they fold. Beats the heck out of $100. That play is best reserved for when you can check-raise all-in on the turn or strongly feel the betting will be aggressive enough without you to get all the money in. Here the pot's not yet big enough.

[Lurker]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr />
First of all, it's very important how deep you are, which you don't mention, but let's assume you're also a deep stack.

[/ QUOTE ]

He's got $3300.

You might have guessed, Ben, but I hate calling here. Against three opponents, one with a flush draw, one with a set, and one with a bigger straight draw, I don't think you're going to like the turn. I count one 4, three 7s, three 8s, (and if we give the good player a gut shot like J-9) four Ts, and six more /forums/images/icons/club.gifs that give someone else the best hand. That's 17 cards already (15 since someone already has two of the /forums/images/icons/club.gifs). Of course, we don't know which gutshot he has, so that's three more 9s and three more 6s that will make turn play difficult. You get the point--at least 21 cards on the turn that mean you have to play 'good poker' out position while possibly drawing dead. I know that when I finally do flop the nuts I don't want to take a 50/50 shot of having to lay it down on the turn!

Much better to lead out with the full pot, and then re-raise the pot, hoping to get popped again and make yet another raise or at least to isolate one opponent. I know that in one particular n/l game I play in making the third raise here means that people will read you for a flush draw and not the nuts. /forums/images/icons/wink.gif Who knows, you might get called by the skinny balding geeky guy with 8s9s...

[ben mo]

okay, wait. I agree with leading out the full pot and hoping to get raised the full pot to make it worth your while. However, in the situation described, i completely disagree with your analysis.

In the simplest case, let's say we're heads-up and i know you have a set. maybe you fold if i raise big, but let's just assume you're coming with me on the flop. face-up, i definitely just call, knowing that if the board pairs i can get away, and if it doesn't pair, i'll still be able to get you all-in (ironically, maybe even more likely to get you all-in) with only one card to come when i'm a huge favorite. Here, calling is not only more profitable, it is VASTLY more profitable.

Now the addition of the flush-draw changes things. Many more cards on the turn become tight spots for me, and i'm going to have to lose the whole pot sometimes. however, if the blank comes (an OUT for me), the implied odds are still tremendous -- i'm still going to get the set all-in, and fantastically, and maybe some money from the flushdraw to boot, with only one card to come as a huge favorite.

I know you live by the maxim "only slowplay the immortal nuts," but my point is that sometimes you have to be willing to gamble the small or medium-sized pots in order to create the monsters. Most players are afraid to do this, maybe rightfully so -- it takes a great deal of skill -- but it's an essential tool to maximum profitability.

speaking of a certain basement game, where the hell have you been? I'm getting tired of raping alex with 10-highs and middle-pairs.. I need some good old-fashioned coin-flips!

ben

[Lurker]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr />
In the simplest case, let's say we're heads-up...Here, calling is not only more profitable, it is VASTLY more profitable.

[/ QUOTE ]

You make a good point, and under different circumstances, I agree with you. I understand where you're coming from when it's heads-up, or even three-handed. But I think a slow-play in this situation versus three opponents is a bad idea. And do you really think that the flush draw is coming along for the ride here on the turn with one card to come if you get it all in with $3300 into a $300 pot?! Maybe a certain player in another game might call, but no sane player would.

It sounds like you want me to show up and increase your variance! If you're taking the game for as much as I think you are you should be happy to have em all to yourself... I've been out of town on interviews and such. You may see my face at the table this week, but don't hold your breath.

-John

[ben mo]

wait, i never suggested you simply bet 3300 into a 300 pot -- I think you should check-raise the turn, and i only advocate overbetting the pot if you're sure they'll come or if it will help them come.

As for the flush draw, if he has a pair and a draw or the nut draw, there's a good chance he will semi-bluff the turn. Here's optimal action: I check, raiser bets, flush draw raises, i reraise, guy with a set thinks, decides i have 2 pair and pushes all-in ("he couldn't possibly have a straight") -- now if the chips are deep the draw might fold -- who cares, the pot is a fricking monster. Even if the odds of this happening are low, it's such a big payday that it can make risking "my" pot worthwhile. Anyway, it's not like i do this all the time, but it's something to consider.

see you soon, i hope =)