A8s against a tight player's 3-bet from SB (title edited)

[Aaron W.]

The 3-bettor in this hand is noticably tight. His PT stats (which I looked up after the game) are 15/8 after 64 hands. He hasn't seen much postflop action, so I don't have much of a gauge on his play, except for what one would guess a 15/8 player would do.

Paradise Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (12 SB) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB folds, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (9 BB) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero...

What do you think of the play so far, and what do you do now?

[Jaran]

I like it. I think you have to continue on the turn, unless you know him to be tricky (which you don't). The question is what to do if c/r'ed. Folding is not really an option given the size of the pot, and a 3bet would be spewing. My line on the turn is bet/call. The river should play itself depending on what hits (K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif would be beautiful).

-Jaran

[aK13]

I like it a lot. SB looks very likely to have overs, probably AK. You almost have to fire this turn, especially since you are probably in the lead and you also have the nut flush draw.

[kapw7]

After the flop you know that it's less likely he has AA to TT and that leaves AK/AQ/KQs according to his stats (if you like a 64 hands sample). UTG+1 is probably on a draw and a pir of Ts is not out of the question but less likely.
Nice flop raise (yes this one gives you info)
You can bet the turn.

[Vote4Pedro]

I agree, bet the turn. Do you take a free showdown UI?

[LoaferGee12]

I'm betting the turn and taking the free showdown. You really don't want to give either of the players in a free card on that turn. On the river, the only hands SB will call you with have you beat and the same goes for the player in the middle unless he's real loose. If check-raised on the turn, I'm folding the river UI.

[SCfuji]

bet and let him check raise. you got 9 outs to the nuts and your As might even be clean and the other two 8s are good.

[SCfuji]

im betting most rivers.

[benkath1]

Why raise preflop?

I guess with your read on SB I like the play. I would bet the turn and check the river UI.

[mscags]

I'm with you, I don't like this preflop raise on this hand. When he reraises pf you know you are in trouble. I think a stat that a lot of people overlook at is aggresion factor. If this guy has a low number than he probably has you beat and is just too awful to reraise you with something like AA KK QQ etc. I don't mind the raise on the flop if you think it will narrow the field, but in this situation I don't think it will and it just spewing chips unless you are planning on taking a free card on the turn UI maybe. I think you need to follow it up with a bet because of your new draw but I would check the river UI and would have checked the turn if UI

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
Paradise Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (12 SB) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB folds, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (9 BB) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero...

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero has one of those moments, and checks. What sort of moment was it? I'll let you decide.

At the time, I didn't have stats on villain, so I only knew that he was particularly tight. I guessed his SB 3-betting standard to be AK, AA-JJ. Since I hold an ace, there are 12 AK and 21 overpairs. AQ is a possibilty here, too, but I discounted it quite a bit because villain just seemed too tight to jump in for 3-bets OOP with that hand.

I suspected he was aiming to check-raise with those big pairs, and there are many more of the big pairs than there are AK hands. Why was did I think he was thinking check-raise? I'm not precisely sure. Maybe it's because that's what I might have done six months ago when I was a noticeably tight player. And if I get check-raised, I'm putting in two bets with the worst hand.

But what if I check? He's going to come out firing on the river with his overpair (except for an ace overcard). I can call one bet, or if I hit one of my many outs, I can raise (he will call), and I can get two bets with the best hand.

What if he has overcards? If I bet now, he'll just call, and then check-fold the river UI. If I check, he's drawing to two or three outs against me (I have him reverse dominated and K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif is bad news for him), and he would be more inclined to call the river with and unimproved AK if I check here and bet there. He also probably won't bet an unimporved AK on the river. So I'll be able to confidently put in a bet on the river with the best hand if I check here.

The donk in the middle is a wildcard which I couldn't figure out. I don't know if I mind him hanging around cheaply or if he has something like KT that beats me and is playing scared because of the preflop action.

So I don't know what sort of moment it was. The central thought was that I didn't want to get check-raised by a better hand, which seemed would happen more often that just getting called by a worse one.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm with you, I don't like this preflop raise on this hand. When he reraises pf you know you are in trouble. I think a stat that a lot of people overlook at is aggresion factor. If this guy has a low number than he probably has you beat and is just too awful to reraise you with something like AA KK QQ etc. I don't mind the raise on the flop if you think it will narrow the field and I think you need to follow it up with a bet because of your new draw but I would check the river UI and would have checked the turn if UI

[/ QUOTE ]

Even if I were running GT+ at the time, the aggression factor over 64 hands against a tight player will be quite useless.

[kapw7]

I like this play if HU but with UTG+1 still in and many draws on the board I prefer to bet.