Wynn 8/16 hand

[Luv2DriveTT]

7 handed game, John to my right, Poker Bob to my left, maniac from the Commerce who is drunk and falling asleep at the table at the CO. Maniac will always raise if he has the button/position and wants to play on - this is an absolute guarantee.

KQs, I raise UTG, 2 players call, CO 3 bets, Button (John)calls, I call. Flop is 9TJ rainbow. I bet out, call middle raises, CO makes it three, John calls, I make it 4, fold, cap, CO folds, John calls.

Turn is a blank. I check, middle bets, John calls, I raise.... and all three of us eventually see the river for 5 big bets each.

At this point I am fairly positive I am tied with the middle player, and John probably has a set.

River - pairs the T. I check, middle checks, John bets, we both call and John shows a boat.

QUESTION:

Does anyone play the turn differently knowing that but the turn I am 90% positive I am tied with Middle and John is hunting for the board to pair, and why?

TT /images/graemlins/club.gif

PS: I'm stuck for now, this hand is what did me in.

[brick]

well played.

[WillyTrailer]

Even if everything is as you imagine your hand is still good at the river with odds of 3:1 and you're getting paid off at one dollar for every two you put in, so NO, I wouldn't play it any differently.

-WT

[Luv2DriveTT]

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well played.

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Some thoughts to discuss:

According to the fundamental theorem of Poker, if John knows the hand that both I and the middle player share, then does it make sense for him to call down considering the size of the pot (remember, he did get whiplashed between myself and the middle player).

Visa/versa, could I have won an equivalent amount if I called the turn, and raised the river assuming the board doesn't pair? Would John remain in the middle of the whiplash? Would that disguise the value of our my straight (not that I think it needs to be disguised, just a thought).

John had 13 outs to improve ahead of us, in short... I am doubting my play was ideal.

Sorry if the post is rambling... i'm rushing out.

TT /images/graemlins/club.gif

[damaniac]

This is actually kind of interesting. He has 10 outs to improve on the river, btw, not 13, unless I'm missing something.

A quick calc shows that on the turn, if you knew you were chopping with another KQ and that John had a set, your equity is 38%, so you are still earning money on every bet that goes in at that point, albeit not a bunch. If you say just called one bet on the turn, planning to cap a river blank, you would be missing an additional .56 BB's on the turn (12 more go in, you claim 4.56, 4 of them were yours). So you'd have to be confident you could win an additional .56 BB's on the river, meaning he has to be willing to put in 3 bets on a blank river.

From his perspective if he knew initially that it would get capped, and that he would only get 2 BB's on the river when the board paired (not at all unreasonable given the players), and the pot contains 17 BB's (I think, it was tough to follow all the action), then he is risking 5 bets to win 29, (counting 2 more on the river), his equity is about 24%, so this is profitable for him, although he also must consider the chance that he is against a higher boat (we don't know what his set is).

So it was fine from his perspective, it appears that, if you think you could get him to put in 3 bets on the river it would be better to wait, but I am very much uncertain on that anaylsis. Maybe someone better with the math could check that.