can you be consistent winner with sports betting? [Archive]

Indiana

06-18-2005, 03:18 PM

My good friend,

It is very hard to make good consistent $ in sports betting the way you do in poker. To do well at it, you need to narrow your focus and pick a sport or two that you know very well. For me that is boxing, for you maybe tennis. Problem with boxing is that there aren't enough matches IMO. However, most of the other sports are gonna be seasonal. I do think that there is $ to be made in sports betting, but its not nearly as lucrative as poker. For example, the guy on professionalgambler.com is called a great sports bettor by many, but I am a statistician for a living and have been tracking his free picks for over a year...Make a long story short, he is statistically no better than 50% according to the Wald test for sequential stopping @ alpha .05. How's that for a $200/mo newsletter? I will say that his downfall has been baseball and that he has done well ~58% in other sports. Oh yeah, did I say don't bet on baseball??? It's a real crapshoot. Think about this, I am up around 4K this year in sportsbetting (hardly enough to live on, even in Indiana) and I am up over 5K this WEEK just on pokerstars.com (check some of the final tables from this past week).

Thoughts?

Indiana

tech

06-18-2005, 03:45 PM

It takes a lot of time, but there is good money to be made. It's more about lots of legwork to find soft lines than it is good handicapping.

Indiana

06-18-2005, 07:05 PM

Tech,

You may be right, but if you're gonna do that level of homework, I think it is better served in the poker world.

Indiana

tech

06-18-2005, 07:12 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You may be right, but if you're gonna do that level of homework, I think it is better served in the poker world.

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I do both.

Indiana

06-18-2005, 07:24 PM

Wish i could have the time to do both well...Poker is my #1 priority...Sports Betting is more for fun...

Indiana

plus_man

06-18-2005, 08:48 PM

What are you for the year in poker?

ThaHero

06-19-2005, 12:14 AM

In the book "Gambling for a Living" Sklansky says that Poker, Blackjack, and Sports Betting are the best 3 areas for gambling long term. I suggest you read that book(or at least that chapter) to get further insight.

Sports betting is so great because you DON'T have to bet on certain games, lines, etc. You can really pick and choose your bets. Couple that with certain people being real experts in a certain sport, and there is plenty money to be made.

Of course, the more money you have, the more money you make. Take the Wright-Trinidad fight. Wright was basically 2-1. Some of us don't have much, and may bet $100. He won, and that was $200 total. Someone with a little more money bets $1000 and gets $2000 in one day.

Baseball is a crapshoot. There is more luck involved. IMO there are too many variables. Psychology plays a big role in baseball, and physical ability isn't as important. Add to that relief pitchers, weather, umpires, etc., and it's just too much goin on. I make an occassional bet on baseball, but generally stay away. My sports are Football and Boxing. I think if I was gambling for a living it wouldn't be hard to juggle studying sports and poker. Being a working man and having other things to do, I do what I can, and I try to juggle both, but know I could do better if I had the time.

Hopefully I gave someone somethin to think about. Hopefully I didn't mess this up cause I posted this while on the phone lol.

Iceman

06-19-2005, 08:43 AM

[ QUOTE ]
In the book "Gambling for a Living" Sklansky says that Poker, Blackjack, and Sports Betting are the best 3 areas for gambling long term. I suggest you read that book(or at least that chapter) to get further insight.

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The important thing is that sports betting "scales" much better than blackjack or poker. Making $20/hour in 10-20 holdem doesn't mean that you could make $200/hour in 100-200, or even that you could play 100-200 without getting destroyed. Getting away with card counting at the green level is a lot easier than getting away with it at the black level, at least without significant camoflauge and cover. But if you are a winning sports bettor with $5 bets, you would win at the exact same rate if you bet $50 or $500 per game, or larger, as long as you don't bet so high that you move the lines.

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Sports betting is so great because you DON'T have to bet on certain games, lines, etc. You can really pick and choose your bets. Couple that with certain people being real experts in a certain sport, and there is plenty money to be made.

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And the fact that the public money often comes down in the wrong places, so there's lots of money to be made by betting against it.

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Baseball is a crapshoot. There is more luck involved. IMO there are too many variables. Psychology plays a big role in baseball, and physical ability isn't as important. Add to that relief pitchers, weather, umpires, etc., and it's just too much goin on. I make an occassional bet on baseball, but generally stay away. My sports are Football and Boxing. I think if I was gambling for a living it wouldn't be hard to juggle studying sports and poker. Being a working man and having other things to do, I do what I can, and I try to juggle both, but know I could do better if I had the time.

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Baseball is the most difficult sport to beat, while international soccer and the NFL are the easiest to beat.

Jinx230

06-19-2005, 03:16 PM

I'm just beginning to get into the world of sports betting.

My big sport is basketball - Is this a beatable game in the world of sports betting? My instincts say no, b/c of the similarities to baseball - far too many variables to control from night to night.

Indiana

06-19-2005, 03:39 PM

Oh sure the NBA is beatable. Much more so than baseball.

Indiana

sublime

06-19-2005, 05:39 PM

In the book "Gambling for a Living" Sklansky says that Poker, Blackjack, and Sports Betting are the best 3 areas for gambling long term.

that sklanksy is a genius. these are the only forms of gambling that CAN be beatin long term.

mrbaseball

06-19-2005, 05:57 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Baseball is a crapshoot. There is more luck involved. IMO there are too many variables. Psychology plays a big role in baseball, and physical ability isn't as important. Add to that relief pitchers, weather, umpires, etc., and it's just too much goin on.

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Interestingly enough you can easily boil all of that stuff down into one easy number. In my mind baseball betting is the only sport that makes sense and can be easily solved matematically. The ignorance of public perception coupled with the large amount of games played daily assures that there is almost always gonna be some edge out there every single day if you learn how to uncover it.

To each his own. There is some variance to be sure but if you understand the game along with it's odds and probabilites along with an understanding of moneyline math, baseball becomes extremely plus ev. Just don't get caught up in trying to predict winners. Stick with the teams that are undervalued in the line.

Indiana

06-19-2005, 06:20 PM

lol...take blackjack off the list...you cannot beat it in the year 2005. What about playing pool or magic? Other forms of gambling that are profitable do exist.

Indy

Jinx230

06-19-2005, 06:50 PM

Can you elaborate a bit on beating NBA sports betting? What are the major aspects to pay attention to in finding an edge out there? I would think injuries, streaks, and players fighting with coaches would be the biggest red flags. NBA players with egos can really mess up a team from night to night.

Indiana

06-20-2005, 10:45 AM

I know that the NBA can be beat because I follow the best handicappers in the business and perform statistical tests on their results. Honestly, I am only a good handicapper in boxing and football. I couldn't beat the NBA myself but if you are looking for a guy who has beaten it year after year then go to sharpsportsbetting.com and go to the free NBA forum (dont cost anything). There is a guy there named Pythagoras and he is without a doubt the best there is. He is around 56% over 1000 games so his results are statistically significant. He should have some good picks for the last game or two of the finals.

Indiana

ThaHero

06-21-2005, 12:20 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Baseball is a crapshoot. There is more luck involved. IMO there are too many variables. Psychology plays a big role in baseball, and physical ability isn't as important. Add to that relief pitchers, weather, umpires, etc., and it's just too much goin on.

[/ QUOTE ]

Interestingly enough you can easily boil all of that stuff down into one easy number. In my mind baseball betting is the only sport that makes sense and can be easily solved matematically. The ignorance of public perception coupled with the large amount of games played daily assures that there is almost always gonna be some edge out there every single day if you learn how to uncover it.

To each his own. There is some variance to be sure but if you understand the game along with it's odds and probabilites along with an understanding of moneyline math, baseball becomes extremely plus ev. Just don't get caught up in trying to predict winners. Stick with the teams that are undervalued in the line.

[/ QUOTE ]

I used to play baseball on a pretty competitive level so I know what it takes to win, what goes on, etc. I still don't feel confident enough to pick winners at this game. As the season started I made some "fake bets" or bets that I would make if I had the cajones to bet on baseball and so far I'd be losing. I've decided to stay away.

This isn't to say that baseball can't be beaten. I'm sure it can. With all these games plus the playoffs, there are plenty opportunities. I wouldn't go as far to say it's extremely plus EV though.

Football is basically just brute force and physical attributes. You don't have to worry too much about a certain hitter "owning" a pitcher, and coming in at the bottom of the 9th to take your win away or something like that. Minor exception- Monte Kiffin and the Bucs own Michael Vick. I think I will bet on the Bucs against Vick as long as he is in the league lol.

I'm sticking to football and boxing, with the occassional dabbling in basketball. I wish I knew something about intercontinental soccer, since Indiana suggested it. If you can beat baseball at a high rate, however, then more power to you.

Phatferd

06-21-2005, 03:03 AM

I think there are some pretty odd lines in the WNBA and have been taking advantage of them. Take the Conn and LA game tonight for example. Conn got +4.5 points and they are the best team in the league. This is just an example. Watch it a while and see how some of these lines are messed up.

I started betting WNBA when I went to MajorWager.com and followed what a guy named Yzerman#19...He knows his stuff. He is like 14-5 this year and I am 5-1 since betting on it.

Tha Villain

06-21-2005, 03:07 AM

Sklansky wrote that book for BEGINNING BETTORS, not people like us who live in Casino's and Online Gambling Forums.

Ever wonder why, when you go to Vegas, the place is overrun with slot machines? But most places have some tiny little Poker Room? Or why there's only one little small Sportsbook Room? Because the MAJORITY of people play Slots and have no idea that it's the WORST game to EVER play. Except maybe Roulette. And people LOVE Craps, but you won't win long term with that either.

I've read about three or four Books/Sites/Articles that say the only way to win long term at gambling are Sports Betting, Poker, and sometimes Black Jack. But now they have these two and three deck Blackjack shufflers so it's almost impossible to count cards anymore. So BJ is starting to go -EV.

Tha Villain

06-21-2005, 03:24 AM

Forgot to talk about the individual sports...

NFL is a good sport to win at if you know your stuff. For the NFL things don't vary much. If a team is weak against the run and they are playing the best run team in the league they will most likely lose. But sometimes the public will ignore this and put money on the favorite, thus moving the line in your favor as mentioned. Or as my bro mentioned, Vick vs. the Bucs (or any complex defense) is definitely Bucs. Peyton Manning vs. Patriots is the Pats, but Manning is so beloved by the public the Colts are constant favorites vs. Pats. Also, there's only been one undefeated team in NFL History. So if you catch a team on the run they are BOUND to lose some time. If you pick the right matchup (like my friend picked Phins over Pats last year) you can WIN BIG! Little nuances like that make football +EV. The only bad thing about football is that it only takes place on Sundays, with one Monday night game.

The NBA is a great sport also. There are games just about every day in the regular season, and it has less variants than you might think. For one, there are only 5 starters and 12 players in total, which is the least people involved for any of the major team sports. Most bench players never see time, so it's really about the starters and the top two or three bench players. There's no weather conditions, etc.

With MLB, it's just too many things involved. The line-ups change daily. Players go through hot and cold streaks. Even the starting pitchers aren't guaranteed up until game time. You have the Bullpen blowing wins, you have star pitchers like, I dunno, say Randy Johnson in his prime, getting hammered in the first inning for 8 runs because he woke up on the wrong side of the bed. Someone said it earlier. Baseball is a Crapshoot. In that book Sklansky said to never bet on baseball long term for value. Baseball is -EV and will end up costing you money in the long run. But if you have a way to do it, congrats.

A few more things on Sports Betting in general.

Don't be afraid to skip games. If you don't like a game or situation, you have the option to pass on it. That's what makes Sports Betting so beautiful. If you sit down at a Poker or Blackjack table, you're locked in for every hand that comes down. Even when you're on the blinds you might get 72o and have to fold it. You're giving money away for not participating. Don't get me wrong we know Poker is profitable, I'm just saying. You don't have the option to "pass" in other games.

Also, in Poker and BJ you're limited in your earning potential. If you're at a 10/20 game, that's all you can bet. But if I want to drop $100 instead of my usual $50 on a bet, I can do it.

You could have literally walked into the Casino last week, put $50,000 on Kevin McBride, and won $350,000. In one night. 6 Rounds. 18 minutes. I dunno if you can win $350,000 on Poker in 18 minutes. Maybe if you're in some high stakes game, but then you'd have to risk more than $50,000.

Sports Betting is very profitable and any sharp person can easily go 50-60% overall if they know which bets to make and which ones to stay away from. The majority of professional sports handicappers are in the 53-57% range, while the best are at the 58-60% range.

mrbaseball

06-21-2005, 11:39 AM

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Baseball is -EV and will end up costing you money in the long run

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Thanks for the tip! But you couldn't possibly be more incorrect. Never had a down year, rarely have a down month or even week. I will agree though that the typical slob has no clue how to price or handicap a baseball game.

Baseball is the most beatable sport there is because there are enough games to actually obtain usable data. Plus with so many games every day there are always several mispriced ones. Also the moneyline skews and is pressured by public ignorance ensuring edges galore. Profitable baseball betting isn't about picking winners. It's about uncovering mispriced lines and letting all of those little edges accumulate over the course of a season.

NFL for example is almost impossible to beat and I seriously doubt more than 1 in 50 can and consistently do beat it. The juice is too high. Baseball juice gets devoured by bad lines until it becomes non-existant. I watch lots of NFL games and have for many mnay years and besides a token superbowl bet wouldn't touch the wagering there with a ten foot pole. Very tricky and tough to figure with an unsatisfactory amount of data.

I loathe the NBA so I don't have any ideas there as to profitability but I have found college hoops to be mildly profitable. Once again primarily due to mass public ignorance and a bias for chalk, skewing lines.

hogua

06-21-2005, 11:52 AM

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I am a statistician for a living and have been tracking his free picks for over a year...Make a long story short, he is statistically no better than 50% according to the Wald test for sequential stopping @ alpha .05.

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It is very possible to be a long term winner with a record of less than 50%. The idea is not to just pick winners, but also to find value in the lines. If you bet dogs only, there's a good chance you'll be less than 50%. However, if you bet only dogs that offer value, you can still be up in dollars at less than 50% winner rate.

tech

06-21-2005, 01:22 PM

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NFL for example is almost impossible to beat and I seriously doubt more than 1 in 50 can and consistently do beat it. The juice is too high. Baseball juice gets devoured by bad lines until it becomes non-existant. I watch lots of NFL games and have for many mnay years and besides a token superbowl bet wouldn't touch the wagering there with a ten foot pole. Very tricky and tough to figure with an unsatisfactory amount of data.

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I don't understand how you can chastise others for being so wrong about baseball (you are absolutely correct to do so), but then you make statements that are as bad or worse about the NFL. Beating the NFL is cake, albeit for somewhat different reasons than MLB. You cannot take the same approach to every sport because the "markets" are so different.

mrbaseball

06-21-2005, 01:39 PM

I'll admit I haven't got clue one how to beat the NFL (although consesus fade seems intriguing). I have seen lots of contests and pick lists and guys trying to beat it on several boards and monitoring sites and 1 in 50 seems about right to me over the long haul. If you are that one congrats!

Any non-moneyline wager doesn't resonate with me and I can't figure out how to figure out spreads. My ineptitude non-standing it seems like 98% of NFL bettors are no better than break even long term (long term being multiple seasons). At least the ones that regularly populate the internet /images/graemlins/smile.gif

popniklas

06-21-2005, 05:56 PM

</font><blockquote><font class="small">Svar till:</font><hr />
There is a guy there named Pythagoras and he is without a doubt the best there is. He is around 56% over 1000 games so his results are statistically significant.

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Just out of curiosity, what does these percentages mean?

ThaHero

06-22-2005, 01:21 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'll admit I haven't got clue one how to beat the NFL (although consesus fade seems intriguing). I have seen lots of contests and pick lists and guys trying to beat it on several boards and monitoring sites and 1 in 50 seems about right to me over the long haul. If you are that one congrats!

Any non-moneyline wager doesn't resonate with me and I can't figure out how to figure out spreads. My ineptitude non-standing it seems like 98% of NFL bettors are no better than break even long term (long term being multiple seasons). At least the ones that regularly populate the internet /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't see how your 98% claim can be accurate. Do you really look at all sites and see everyone's bets? Also, don't forget that probably 90% of all players who will ever pick up some playing cards will lose at poker. There's literally millions that play, and most of them are bad.

I think you can use that and place it on the sports betting community, or gambling as a whole. Most people view gambling as gambling, period. They don't think like we do, with edges, percentages, + or - EV etc. They just make the bet and cross their fingers. I'd say that 99% of all people that gamble will lose in the long run. This is because most people play slots, horses, craps, and other games without any sort of clue.

Now, is it any argument that beating the PS .25/.50 game is a piece of cake with any kind of study? No, it's basically fact. Read SSH a few times, keep your game sharp, buy PT(this probably isn't even required), and you'll beat .25/.50 if you stick to it and are determined. It's definately not hard.

This is basically the same for sports betting IMO. Now if the people you are viewing are supposed professional sports bettors, or experts, then I don't know why they call themselves such if they can barely break even on the NFL. If they are amatuers, then I guess we see why they hardly break even.

Just look at a few lines from last year- How on earth are the Pats a dog to the Colts? The public(quite possibly the people you are looking at). Take the Super Bowl. New England has won their Super Bowls by 3 point margins. Yet most sportsbooks gave the Eagles 4 points. That's an easy bet(and if you bet it you made money). The public is so idiotic when it comes to the NFL it's amazing. Also, the NFL looks pretty cut and dry to me. Of course you have to follow the sport to beat it, but there's plenty value in it because public opinion sways the lines. Maybe it's because there are only two days to bet on it, so everyone has to get their money in. But that also gives you plenty of time to analyze your picks for the week as well.

I haven't read all the sites you have, I'll admit. But I just don't understand how you can just tell us we are wrong on baseball AND wrong on football as well. I find it hard to believe that the majority of posters here are wrong in believing the NFL is cake and MLB is tough, and that we had it totally flipped and opposite.

mrbaseball

06-22-2005, 02:11 PM

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I find it hard to believe that the majority of posters here are wrong in believing the NFL is cake

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I seriously doubt many here regularly beat the NFL although I'm sure some do. I guess I have my own personal bias because I find NFL unbettable and baseball easy where you stated your own personal bias of the opposite.

I have never understood the allure of NFL betting because the lines are the tightest gnats ass lines imaginable with heavy juice. I have also never understood the unpopularity of baseball betting? Baseball has so much information and statistics that are relevant to draw on. Each baseball game boils down to a simple arithmetic problem. Most are unwilling to do their homework or learn the math though and this is fine because it's just money in my pocket.

In NFL teams and players constantly change and even divisional rivals only play twice a year and the rest of the league not even every year. In baseball divisional rivals plat 18 times and the rest of the league plenty. There is plenty of history and specific matchup info to draw on which isn't the case with football.

In my opinion the NFL is the absolute toughest spread to crack out there with baseball, hockey, college hoops, college fb and nba all as easier team sports to beat. Apparently you think differently? I just used the NFL example because I find it so personally difficult and since it is so popular. NFL betting is sorta like a macho pissing contest. Everyone thinks they can beat it but long term almost none of them do.

Iceman

06-22-2005, 03:15 PM

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I have never understood the allure of NFL betting because the lines are the tightest gnats ass lines imaginable with heavy juice.

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Heavy juice? Pinnacle has a -105 line.

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I have also never understood the unpopularity of baseball betting? Baseball has so much information and statistics that are relevant to draw on. Each baseball game boils down to a simple arithmetic problem. Most are unwilling to do their homework or learn the math though and this is fine because it's just money in my pocket.

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It requires a lot more work and knowledge than other sports, so far fewer people can beat it.

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In my opinion the NFL is the absolute toughest spread to crack out there with baseball, hockey, college hoops, college fb and nba all as easier team sports to beat. Apparently you think differently?

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The NFL has the squarest betting public of any US sport, and there's a good advantage from knowing when the public money is wrong.

Even when the lines are particularly sharp, that often means that there are other profitable opportunities, such as teasers.

And tiny differences in lines are much more exploitable than in other sports - middles around key numbers, etc.

PennyAnte

06-22-2005, 10:02 PM

Second halves. That's all I'm going to say.

ThaHero

06-22-2005, 11:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I find it hard to believe that the majority of posters here are wrong in believing the NFL is cake

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I seriously doubt many here regularly beat the NFL although I'm sure some do. I guess I have my own personal bias because I find NFL unbettable and baseball easy where you stated your own personal bias of the opposite.

I have never understood the allure of NFL betting because the lines are the tightest gnats ass lines imaginable with heavy juice. I have also never understood the unpopularity of baseball betting? Baseball has so much information and statistics that are relevant to draw on. Each baseball game boils down to a simple arithmetic problem. Most are unwilling to do their homework or learn the math though and this is fine because it's just money in my pocket.

In NFL teams and players constantly change and even divisional rivals only play twice a year and the rest of the league not even every year. In baseball divisional rivals plat 18 times and the rest of the league plenty. There is plenty of history and specific matchup info to draw on which isn't the case with football.

In my opinion the NFL is the absolute toughest spread to crack out there with baseball, hockey, college hoops, college fb and nba all as easier team sports to beat. Apparently you think differently? I just used the NFL example because I find it so personally difficult and since it is so popular. NFL betting is sorta like a macho pissing contest. Everyone thinks they can beat it but long term almost none of them do.

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Guess we will just have to agree to disagree. You are right, I don't have time to do math on baseball. So far I have followed a lot of advice from Sklansky and his books. He said himself that baseball was tough, and I'm sure he's a lot better at numbers than I am. So I will stay away. I have followed his advice in everything else and it has worked, so I will continue to do so for now. Glad to see you are winning at it though.

coash

06-23-2005, 07:37 AM

How do the betting sites decide the odds? do they have like a starter one then the public buys whichever and the odds change?

PennyAnte

06-23-2005, 09:34 AM

[ QUOTE ]
How do the betting sites decide the odds? do they have like a starter one then the public buys whichever and the odds change?

[/ QUOTE ]

Las Vegas Sports Consultants puts out the opening number, and some casinos/sports books allow pros to bet into these lines before they are made available to the general public, to sharpen the lines.

TheGame1020

06-23-2005, 10:25 AM

The NFL is cake compared to other sports. There is no doubt about it. A sharp or handicapper has such a MASSIVE edge because its so easy to tell which side is wrong because of the massive public opinion and massive amount of square bettors. If you can't beat the NFL, don't even bother betting other sports.

calling all cars

06-23-2005, 10:35 AM

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Profitable baseball betting isn't about picking winners. It's about uncovering mispriced lines and letting all of those little edges accumulate over the course of a season.

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Love the attitude; I agree completely. However, my baseball betting career is still in its infancy--how about throwing me a bone and recommending a book or two? Or are they all misinformed--I'm sure many are.

thanks

lastsamurai

06-23-2005, 03:28 PM

I went to vegas a couple of years ago and met these "professional gamblers" they told me they use trends to beat the book. Only bet on college football and basketball. Using these trends they hit 70-80 of the games they bet on and bet big when one of the trends come up. Ever since that meeting i am a firm believer that people could make money just betting on sports.

tech

06-23-2005, 03:58 PM

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Using these trends they hit 70-80 of the games they bet on and bet big when one of the trends come up.

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Nobody wins 70%-80% ATS over a decent number of wagers, not even the very best of the best.

TheGame1020

06-23-2005, 06:03 PM

LOL. 70%? 80%? These number are absurd. 60% is an amazing accomplishment, very rarely acheived. Anyone who says they hit 70% or higher is simply lying.

coash

06-23-2005, 11:13 PM

What 60% ATS WTF

lastsamurai

06-24-2005, 02:31 AM

ats= against the spread

sportypicks.com

06-24-2005, 11:26 AM

"Profitable baseball betting isn't about picking winners. It's about uncovering mispriced lines and letting all of those little edges accumulate over the course of a season."

Mr.Baseball,
There might not be a more accurate statement ever written. You definitely know your stuff. I would say this is true about every sport, it's just realized more in baseball because of the sheer number of games and the compounding that occurs.

Also, show me somebody who wins over 57% LONG TERM and I'll show you the "Holy Grail" of handicapping. Because it just doesn't exist.

This thread has generated some good conversation though

Dan Rutter

06-24-2005, 02:08 PM

In "Gambling Wizards: Conversations with the World's Greatest Gamblers", Chip Reese explains why he feels baseball is the most beatable game. The book is extremely interesting. Basically he and a group of people use computers, and are able to input the mass amount of statistical data a baseball season provides, to get predictions for games. He says since there are so many more games in a baseball season you will have more data to work with than other sports.

mrbaseball

06-24-2005, 03:34 PM

I'll have to pick that up and read it. I like baseball for the some of the same reasons. You have usable matchup data. All you have to do is look at it all /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Dan Rutter

06-24-2005, 08:05 PM

I highly recommend that book, you will enjoy it, and learn a lot. You will not learn so much on how to beat games, or certain types of gambling, you will learn a lot of the mindset, and the lifes of the gamblers interviewed.

ThaHero

06-25-2005, 01:07 PM

Guess I better buy some computers and statistical programs. Which ones do they use? They have to input all this manually?

Sounds like a lot of work. On the other hand so is being good at poker too I suppose.

mrbaseball

06-25-2005, 01:32 PM

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Which ones do they use?

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I have no idea and I'm sure I'm not anywhere near as sophisticated as a betting synicate headed up by Chip Reese. But if you have excel, a reasonable idea of what baseball statistics mean and which ones are important, and an internet connection to get any and every stat you can imagine, you have all you need.

I just plug what I think is important into an excel spreadsheet and it spits out a line. Then I look at specific matchups and bullpen usage and travel and anything else that might matter or change the raw number.

If my expectation based on this information differs from the actual line enough then I have a bet. Take my Bargain Basebment Bosox post for example. Based on the stats I plugged into my spreadsheet and my looking at the two team and starters involved I figure fair valur to be about +-200 with Boston favored. Since Boston was only -135 in line I had a significant enough difference to make what I consider a value wager. I typically get 4 or 5 bettable games a day. Sometimes more (7 today) and sometimes less (only 2 yesterday). Every time I bet a game at -135 that should be -200 I gain .65 units if my handicap is correct and that's how it works. Win, lose or draw on Boston today I have a .65 unit profit expectation every time I make this bet. On a different game maybe I only have a .4 profit expection. But when the dust settles in October I have a whole bunch of .4's and .5's and .65's that have accumulated assuming my hanicap through the season was reasonably accurate.

07-26-2005, 07:16 PM

Does anyone know what the word is for when you can make a bet on opposing teams at two different sites and be guaranteed to make money because of the money line difference? Thanks.

tech

07-26-2005, 07:25 PM

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Does anyone know what the word is for when you can make a bet on opposing teams at two different sites and be guaranteed to make money because of the money line difference? Thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]

Scalping.

ThaHero

07-26-2005, 08:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Does anyone know what the word is for when you can make a bet on opposing teams at two different sites and be guaranteed to make money because of the money line difference? Thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]

Scalping.

[/ QUOTE ]

How often does a situation like this arise?

etizzle

07-27-2005, 12:47 PM

just bet it all on federer every week, not really too tough.

primetime32

07-27-2005, 04:38 PM

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How often does a situation like this arise?

[/ QUOTE ]

If you open enough accounts, you can usually find a decent game every night. With sites using 10 cent lines and sites using exchanges, the possibility for scalping is there all the time. One site that seems to be popular these days for those that scalp is mansion exchange. i will be opening an account there for football.

as for the issue of making money on sports betting. I have been sports betting for about 20 years and been playing poker seriously for 2 years. Poker is far easier to make a profit. it isnt even close. When you place a bet on a sporting match you are going up against odds makers that are on top of their game. When you are at a poker table, you are usually up against players that are far from experts.