is pokerprophecy worth it?

[nickianthony]

i know pokerprophecy is pretty unreliable, since the stats it gives you are incomplete, to say the least. but i figure it must give you a little bit of an edge. is it worth the money?

[adanthar]

I finally gave in and bought a copy the other day after making a tough fold against a guy who turned out to be a jackass.

I play the 109's, though, so all I need to do to get it to pay for itself is to save myself 400 chips at some point. YMMV.

[Jay36489]

I imagine its only worth it at higher levels. I don't need it to tell me that everyone else at a 10+1 table is a moron. I play 30+3s and I hear there are a lot of grinders at this level, but I'm still not sure if it's worth it. PT + PV and paying attention to the game is more then enough to play at level 3+. I guess it could be of some use right at the begining of a tourney though.

[DeathbySuckout]

Looking back, would this have helped the situation if you had it at the time?

I'm also thinking of getting this when I get back to SnGs.

[freemoney]

if paying 40 dollars for it and then when you go on a cold streak you will get pissed that you "wasted" 40 dollars then dont buy it, i think it does pay for itself in the long run especially at the higher levels, its better at confirming suspicions then anything.

[zipppy]

[ QUOTE ]
I finally gave in and bought a copy the other day after making a tough fold against a guy who turned out to be a jackass.

I play the 109's, though, so all I need to do to get it to pay for itself is to save myself 400 chips at some point. YMMV.

[/ QUOTE ]

One dilemma I see, however, is that because prophecy's data isn't also reliable or complete, perhaps it could cost you 400 chips as many times as it saves you 400 chips.

How do you use prophecy, and how do you avoid getting screwed by it? Do you look only for extreme %'s one way or the other with a high volume of SNGs tracked?

[checkers777]

Just subtract about 3% from everyone's ITM% and that is usually more or less accurate.

[Sponger15SB]

[ QUOTE ]
Just subtract about 3% from everyone's ITM% and that is usually more or less accurate.

[/ QUOTE ]

So it only records the SNGs where everyone wins?

[Slim Pickens]

I got 20 bucks-worth of entertainment out of Prophecy-ing my dingrod of a former housemate as he was calling me on the phone to brag about how he was "crushing" peopel at the 11's. ITM around 20% over 40 games. /images/graemlins/blush.gif I then told him about this great new program called Poker Prophecy. He said he'd look into it and since he hasn't called me back to brag since I'm guessing he looked up his own stats and mione with his free trial searches. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

The interface is so ugly it gives me a headache, so I can't use the overlay mode. It's fun when you get down to 1 or 2 tables 4-handed to check up on everyone.

SlimP

[Blarg]

[ QUOTE ]
Just subtract about 3% from everyone's ITM% and that is usually more or less accurate.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've found it has rarely overstated by ITM by less than 10%.

[duke44]

[ QUOTE ]
How do you use prophecy, and how do you avoid getting screwed by it? Do you look only for extreme %'s one way or the other with a high volume of SNGs tracked?

[/ QUOTE ]

Our database is knowledge on players that people do not have and while we do have a problem with some 4th places finishes being counted as wins(this is why ITM's are a bit high for some people) our statistics can tell you who is playing well and who is playing poorly.

Like any database of this kind though you should not base any decision 100% on our product. Just because someone has an ITM% of 20% over 200 games it does not mean that they are going all in on middle pair everytime, but it usually does /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Also for those people that are multitabling(most people on this forum I'm guessing) we are adding a tab function hopefully by the end of the month that will allow you to use Poker Prophecy table searches on every table.

The cosmetics of the application will also be changing as we have been working on the bug's and other issues first and have finally found time to fix the "graphics".

[Blarg]

I wish you could give more detailed info, something ROI-oriented. How many 1sts, 2nds, and 3rds they get would be much more useful than their ITM. You can get a true 40% ITM and be losing money hand over fist. It's a very deceptive stat. I've had around a 37-39% ITM when I was both tearing the game up and when I was being completely destroyed. I settled in on that number very early.

Now, if people could see how an opponent's finishes divide up, they'd have a whole different level of useable info.

[duke44]

We are going to be adding that feature in the coming months. It takes quite a bit of work to get done as you have to monitor every single table played instead of using the lobby as we do now.

[lemuri]

Prophecy is definitely worth it. Works well on party and doesn't interfere with other free skins (ie artpoker.net). The stats update daily and have been very accurate. I really like seeing the one (or two) Fish at the table ahead of time. A fun and useful tool

Pays for itself very quickly, this software does. Cheers to Duke n Co,
LividLemur

[treeofwisdom7]

i hate it when people know how much im ITM. dam you PP. im gonna find a party skin that allows me to change my sn every month. that or i could just get a few skins and change my sn all the time.

[gasgod]

[ QUOTE ]
i hate it when people know how much im ITM. dam you PP. im gonna find a party skin that allows me to change my sn every month. that or i could just get a few skins and change my sn all the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Party could ruin Poker Prophecy (and similar services) by allowing a player to choose a new screen name for that sign-on. I wonder why they don't?

GG

[Lefthander]

It's too good of an idea.

[Sponger15SB]

[ QUOTE ]
It's too good of an idea.

[/ QUOTE ]

Worst. Idea. Ever.

[treeofwisdom7]

eurobet allows this every 6 months.

[Sponger15SB]

[ QUOTE ]
i hate it when people know how much im ITM. dam you PP. im gonna find a party skin that allows me to change my sn every month. that or i could just get a few skins and change my sn all the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't want everyone to know you have a 34% ITM? /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Ok am I done being a dick in this thread or should I keep going? Tune in later to find out!

[Blarg]

It doesn't make any difference. Like I said, I've hovered pretty solidly around 37-39% ITM for ages, when I was killing and when I was being slaughtered too. Someone knowing my ITM would have no idea how I was really doing. You can be terrible and have a pretty good ITM.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
I play the 109's, though, so all I need to do to get it to pay for itself is to save myself 400 chips at some point.

[/ QUOTE ]

Paid for itself today.

otal number of players : 9
Seat 1: BGKING ( $1740 )
Seat 2: Time2getpaid ( $910 )
Seat 3: Stugots777 ( $720 )
Seat 4: Adanthar1 ( $1760 )
Seat 6: jgschm ( $855 )
Seat 7: tombanjo ( $850 )
Seat 8: logger1957 ( $910 )
Seat 9: trytolie ( $1220 )
Seat 10: Trimalchio ( $1035 )
Trny:13267042 Level:3
Blinds(25/50)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Adanthar1 [ Jd Js ]
logger1957 raises [100].
trytolie folds.
Trimalchio folds.
BGKING folds.
Time2getpaid folds.
Stugots777 folds.
Adanthar1 raises [300].
jgschm folds.
tombanjo folds.
>You have options at Table 11246 Table!.
logger1957 is all-In.
>You have options at $5000 Daily Guaranteed(368328) Table #9 Table!.
>You have options at Table 39822 Table!.
>You have options at Table 11246 Table!.
Your time bank will become active in less than 20 seconds. If you do not want it to be used, please act now.
Adanthar1 calls [610].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 3d, 5c, 3s ]
>You have options at Table 11246 Table!.
** Dealing Turn ** [ 4d ]
** Dealing River ** [ 5h ]
Adanthar1 shows [ Jd, Js ] two pairs, jacks and fives.
logger1957 shows [ Ad, 8h ] two pairs, fives and threes.
Adanthar1 wins 1895 chips from the main pot with two pairs, jacks and fives.
logger1957 finished in ninth place.
logger1957 has left the table.

[duke44]

[ QUOTE ]
Party could ruin Poker Prophecy (and similar services) by allowing a player to choose a new screen name for that sign-on.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't even think it would because most of our customers like having the stats on themselves and seeing there ITM% so they wouldn't change and then a majority of people that play Party Poker that are not our customers wouldn't bother with the hassle.

Probably the only people that would change frequently would be 2+2ers and even that might be a questionable decision as I'm sure many of you like the respect your ITM's give you.

Also we are going to be doing more with the Top 50 lists very soon, probably adding a Top 50 list for each buyin amount. Anyone have any other ideas on how/what you would like to see done in regards to top players lists?

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
Also we are going to be doing more with the Top 50 lists very soon, probably adding a Top 50 list for each buyin amount. Anyone have any other ideas on how/what you would like to see done in regards to top players lists?

[/ QUOTE ]

Aside from the breakdown by 1-2-3/ROI that you're working on, I'd want a 'most games played' for each level. I'd also want both the games played stat and the total ITM stat to be overlaid on each table (customizable if possible, like Playerview is).

There's about a thousand other things I can think of but breaking down ITM would be more useful than anything else.