a different bubble situation...

[networkman]

This is a STT, first 3 get a buyin to final, 4th gets squat.

SB seems an ok player, the shortstack was massive chip leader 4 hands ago but pissd it away with LAG play...

LAG - 680
X - 2775
SB - 9480
BB/Hero - 1765

Hero has QQ

Blinds 100/200

2 Folds, SB calls...

In a normal STT I don't even think about it, easy allin.

Comments?

[gasgod]

[ QUOTE ]
This is a STT, first 3 get a buyin to final, 4th gets squat.

SB seems an ok player, the shortstack was massive chip leader 4 hands ago but pissd it away with LAG play...

LAG - 680
X - 2775
SB - 9480
BB/Hero - 1765

Hero has QQ

Blinds 100/200

2 Folds, SB calls...

In a normal STT I don't even think about it, easy allin.

Comments?

[/ QUOTE ]

The mystery here is why SB didn't click P&F, then crack open a beer. Maybe he's asleep at the switch, or maybe he hopes to end the tournament right here. In any case, he won't (shouldn't) call a raise with a hand I can beat, so I check.

GG

[Jay36489]

And why would this tourney be any different from the rest? All I see is an easy push here.

[zipppy]

[ QUOTE ]
And why would this tourney be any different from the rest? All I see is an easy push here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think a push is tough, but necessary. If MR. Lag doubles up, then you have almost the same size stack as him. Take advantage of the great hands when you get them, especially on the bubble as others don't want to risk their chips.

[Jay36489]

Whoops, I just woke up so forgive me. I see what hes saying why this tourney is different. I agree that QQ is too good of a hand to just call with, and you need to put some distance between you and short stack. Calling and folding on an A or K flop puts hero @ 1565. Pushing and getting a fold puts hero @ 1965 which is much better.

I don't see big stack making a loose all in call here. If he loses he's at 7715 and hero is at 3570, putting hero almost a double up from the lead.

[gasgod]

[ QUOTE ]
Whoops, I just woke up so forgive me. I see what hes saying why this tourney is different. I agree that QQ is too good of a hand to just call with, and you need to put some distance between you and short stack. Calling and folding on an A or K flop puts hero @ 1565. Pushing and getting a fold puts hero @ 1965 which is much better.

I don't see big stack making a loose all in call here. If he loses he's at 7715 and hero is at 3570, putting hero almost a double up from the lead.

[/ QUOTE ]

The chip count adds up to 14700, so I think the OP's numbers are after posting. Also, hero doesn't need to take the chip lead. Third place is equal to first place.

This is what troubles me: ICM (and common sense) gives big stack 99+% to finish ITM. It makes no sense for him to complete, even with AA. But maybe he's not thinking.

If you push, he might think. He has just witnessed Mr. t680 blow a massive chip lead. Do you think he would risk doing the same?

Let's get back to ICM. If you push and win (after SB calls), your $EV goes from 26.6% to 30.4% of the prize pool. If you lose, it goes to zero, of course. this means you have to be a 87.4% favorite to win the hand just to break even. QQ is nowhere near 87.4%, even opposite a random hand.

GG

[Jay36489]

I agree with you that maybe SB is completing to hope for a miracle flop to end it right now. Bottom line is calling the push is not an easy call for him, and the extra chips do help. If OP's numbers are after posting picking up the t400 puts him at 2165 which is much more comfortable stack to wait for the LAG small stack to be blinded away.

[gasgod]

I'm curious about the result.

GG

[networkman]

I've been on holiday so my reply is very late /images/graemlins/cool.gif

I ended up pushing and wouldve been happy enough to take down the blinds. The SB called with AJ and my queens held up. The very next hand was folded to me with JJ in the SB and knocked I out the LAG.