Exitonly
06-18-2005, 03:22 AM
Alright at a home game SnG, my friend was in the following situation (Starting chips 1600, blinds 10-20, 3rd hand in the tourney);
he was in the big blind, UTG (decent player) raised to 85 two bad players called, he had AKo, he pushes all in. He says he thinks it's the best play i said just a re-raise would be. I tried to do some math to prove it, and came up with the following, i dont know if i did this right it's my first time analyzing a hand like this.
Option A)
Cold Call:
%33 win 400 +132
%67 lose 85 -57
----
+75
------------------------------------------------
Option B)
All In
%90 win 265 +238
We agreed there was a 90% chance everyone folds
%3 win 1685 +50.55
%7 lose 1500 -105
We put the original raiser on a range of hands and AA, KK, QQ are 10% of the range, and we figured those are the only hands he'd call with. Of those times, he's roughly 30% to win, so thats where i got that.
-----
Overall: +183
------------------------------------------------
Reraise to 400
%53 win 668 +354
%32 lose 400 -128
This is the part i probably screwed up, we figured the 10% of the time he has AA, KK, QQ he would push in, so of the times he didnt push in the above was his % vs the range minus AA, KK, QQ.
%3 win 1685 +50.55
%7 lose 1500 -105
If he does get pushed in with AA, KK, QQ
%5 win 265 +14
figured only a 5% chance he doesn't get called with the reraise
------
+185
So what'd i forget?
Thanks
he was in the big blind, UTG (decent player) raised to 85 two bad players called, he had AKo, he pushes all in. He says he thinks it's the best play i said just a re-raise would be. I tried to do some math to prove it, and came up with the following, i dont know if i did this right it's my first time analyzing a hand like this.
Option A)
Cold Call:
%33 win 400 +132
%67 lose 85 -57
----
+75
------------------------------------------------
Option B)
All In
%90 win 265 +238
We agreed there was a 90% chance everyone folds
%3 win 1685 +50.55
%7 lose 1500 -105
We put the original raiser on a range of hands and AA, KK, QQ are 10% of the range, and we figured those are the only hands he'd call with. Of those times, he's roughly 30% to win, so thats where i got that.
-----
Overall: +183
------------------------------------------------
Reraise to 400
%53 win 668 +354
%32 lose 400 -128
This is the part i probably screwed up, we figured the 10% of the time he has AA, KK, QQ he would push in, so of the times he didnt push in the above was his % vs the range minus AA, KK, QQ.
%3 win 1685 +50.55
%7 lose 1500 -105
If he does get pushed in with AA, KK, QQ
%5 win 265 +14
figured only a 5% chance he doesn't get called with the reraise
------
+185
So what'd i forget?
Thanks