Does variance decrease as experience increases?

[mtdoak]

While Small Stakes Hold'em is, by its own defintion, a game of variance and swings, I've noticed that I've experienced far less drastic swings over the last 3 months than I experienced the first three months of playing. Is there something to be said of being more immune to tilt and not turning minor, regular downswings into big, prolonged ones through poor play? I remember back in Feb i had a 200 BB downswing, a 100 BB upswing, than another 100 BB downswing in the course of 3 weeks, and during that I was playing over emotionally thinking and being reactive to my swings rather than proactive. Now, if I run 'bad', i usually get marginally upset but am able to regroup quickly and get back to my A (well, B-, I don't have an A game yet) game. Is this somewhat true or have i just been fortunate to avoid a 100 BB downswing for a long time?

[einbert]

Wow, I have a 100BB downswing like twice a week.

You will have less large downswings the higher your true WR is, but you're also probably running very well.

[Jeff W]

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Does variance decrease as experience increases?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, but your downswings may seem less severe because your winrate is higher.

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
While Small Stakes Hold'em is, by its own defintion, a game of variance and swings, I've noticed that I've experienced far less drastic swings over the last 3 months than I experienced the first three months of playing. Is there something to be said of being more immune to tilt and not turning minor, regular downswings into big, prolonged ones through poor play? I remember back in Feb i had a 200 BB downswing, a 100 BB upswing, than another 100 BB downswing in the course of 3 weeks, and during that I was playing over emotionally thinking and being reactive to my swings rather than proactive. Now, if I run 'bad', i usually get marginally upset but am able to regroup quickly and get back to my A (well, B-, I don't have an A game yet) game. Is this somewhat true or have i just been fortunate to avoid a 100 BB downswing for a long time?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not qualified to respond to this thread Doak, but here's my thoughts anyway...

I don't think we can call a "downswing" *variance* when we're making poor decisions for whatever reason(s). That's just playing loosing poker. Variance has to do with short term luck in the game, not our skills diminishing.

I don't think experience really has a large impact on variance. I think it has more to do with the type of games you play in and how aggressive your opponents are.

So variance getting less from getting experience? No.

However, controlling spewage and making downswings larger and more severe than they would be just from standard short term luck in the game because of experience? Yes.

[ihardlyknowher]

I think it depends on your style of playing incorrectly when you are inexperienced.
If you are too timid to start, you may forego things like pumping flush draws on the flop, which add EV and variance.
If you are prone to tilt and loose pre-flop play to start, then your variance will definitely decrease as you mature.

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Does variance decrease as experience increases?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, but your downswings may seem less severe because your winrate is higher.

[/ QUOTE ]

Beautiful...there's a link somewhere where Chief, DMBFan, Octopus and Feeney were helping me on this....hang on.

[Jeff W]

Variance is widely misunderstood on 2+2.

What is variance? (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variance)

[Scott_Baio]

[ QUOTE ]
Wow, I have a 100BB downswing like twice a week.

You will have less large downswings the higher your true WR is, but you're also probably running very well.

[/ QUOTE ]

Jesus, how many hands a day do you play?

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Does variance decrease as experience increases?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, but your downswings may seem less severe because your winrate is higher.

[/ QUOTE ]

Beautiful...there's a link somewhere where Chief, DMBFan, Octopus and Feeney were helping me on this....hang on.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the thread (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=2430200&page=&view=&s b=5&o=)

Also...JoshD was in there helping too...

Matt posted some nice charts in there as well.

[mtdoak]

....and right on cue......I drop 100 BB this weekend. Ah well, its been awhile /images/graemlins/wink.gif