TT in trouble?

[mike l.]

40-80 commerce, young guy who's been playing reasonably and sees me as reasonable and tight as well at the moment raises utg, i 3 bet w/ TT. blinds fold, he calls.

the flop is JcTs5d. he bets, i raise, he calls.

the turn is Ad. he bets, i raise, he calls.

the river is Qh. he bets, i...?

[flawless_victory]

id prob pay him off to see what suits his AK are.

[SinCityGuy]

Tommy Angelo would fold and save $80. I would waste the $80 and call.

[elindauer]

Can you fold? I don't think so. Maybe he's betting AQ or QJ in one of those I'm-going-to-call-so-I-may-as-well-bet moves.

Can you raise? Hmmm... does he really think you'll fold to this bet? I don't think so. It looks likely that he has the king.

So, that just leaves one option.

Good luck.
Eric

[WillyTrailer]

I'd surely make this call.

Which hands does villain raise with UTG and then not cap your 3 bet with.
He probably caps AA, KK, QQ, and maybe AKs and maybe AKo, no?
Does he raise UTG with KQs? Maybe, but he's not stopping on the turn if that's what he has. So that one's out.

Ok, now imagine he respects your three bet enough to not cap any of the AK hands. Is he going to bet out on this flop with AK if he gave you that much respect preflop???

If you're not calling solely for fear of the straight then I don't like it that much. I think he bets anything he's calling here since there is a slight chance of picking up the pot and it's an easy fold to a raise if he doesn't have a K.

I call, but I'm not used to such high stakes and don't know exactly how the action would go. (also, I think you likely see a lot more action from JJ somewhere in the hand)

Edit: on second thought, what could he possibly think he beats in order to be betting into you? weird hand.

-WT

[Senor Choppy]

easy call.

[Mikey]

this looks to me like AK.

He's making the obligatory bet and he makes the call

On the turn he hits his Ace he makes his bet is raised and is now caught up emotionally in the hand and doesn't care what you have, he's playing his hand, all hand reading for him is lost, all he see's is top pair top kicker and now he has a gutshot for the Queen.

On the river is a Queen. He hits his hand and bets.

I'd be very surprised if he has any other holding after being raised 2 times on the board.

On the river is where I would pause and then begin to engage in dialouge.

[Lawrence Ng]

I fold, but that's just me.

Lawrence

[Apocalypse]

you'd bet if checked to right? If i had any read as a solid 40-80 player on you i'd crse your valuebetting ass with my king, hoping you can't let go. In that case him betting out would more or less seem like a weaker hand like 2pair using the obvious straight to protect his doubtful valuebet against a raise. And that would mean you have an option to... raise? The same obvious straight would of course save you from being 3-bet by any hand that beats you that isn't a straight. It's all based on an if-situation depending the read you got, but its just to show theres too little info to state this is an 'easy call'. Folding seems absurd

[Luke]

[ QUOTE ]
...sees me as reasonable and tight ....

[/ QUOTE ]

Tight like folding for one bet in huge pot after a ton of headsup action? /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

This hand is a close one and the factor that sways it to a call for me is that you believe the table is perceiving you as tight at the moment and this guy could be making this play with a bunch of Ax hands (AK too of course).

And if you lose the pot you can always just go pick off of one of Tommy's fruit plates.

Luke

[adanthar]

Does no one think this could be AQ thinking his top 2 is now good and guessing you probably aren't going to bet this river? [Whether you will or not]

[slavic]

Mike - Why would he not check raise you? You've shown strength all the way through, he knows you to play decently and that you'll bet many a river. He improves to the nuts why not check raise? Folding seems out to me.

[ggbman]

It's close, but i call, because his flop bet is weird for AK.

[Garland]

I'm surprised no mentioned AJ as a possibility as well.

Call because:
(a) You can win
(b) You can get info on his cards
(c) You don't want a "weenie" target put on your head.

Garland

[drbk2]

I had a hand exactly like this in the 40 80 game at the Borgata. I had AK and raised UTG, the dude who 3 bet me preflop had TT. We had similar table images as what you described in your hand. And the flop, turn, and river were also identical (except for the suits). The betting was exactly the same as well.

I think you're up most likely against AK in this hand as well. However, the small possibility that he's making a move or is betting an Ax two pair is too high for you to fold. I think unless your read is dead on against this guy, the 10-11:1 odds you're getting to call the river is worth a call.

[Masquerade]

I normally advocate calling in these sorts of posts but here you can surely save yourself $80.

[jetsonsdogcanfly]

I call, because on the turn he is pretty sure you don´t have a king.

[flawless_victory]

[ QUOTE ]
It's close, but i call, because his flop bet is weird for AK.

[/ QUOTE ]in live 40 ppl bet this flop with AK all the time... on party 15, it would be wierd. in fact ppl play AK exactly like this on all streets.
to those who think a K CRs... have you seen the board?

[Rick Nebiolo]

[ QUOTE ]
40-80 commerce, young guy who's been playing reasonably and sees me as reasonable and tight as well at the moment raises utg, i 3 bet w/ TT. blinds fold, he calls.

the flop is JcTs5d. he bets, i raise, he calls.

the turn is Ad. he bets, i raise, he calls.

the river is Qh. he bets, i...?

[/ QUOTE ]

Three hands make reasonable sense here - AK, AQ and AJ.

If he has AJ he floped top pair and bet and called your raise, reaonable given you three bet BTF. On the turn he makes top two, so he bets and just calls fearing a set. On the river he bets because he thinks he might get you to lay down a set, with you fearing the king.

If he has AQ he flopped overcards and an inside straight draw. He bets the flop to win it right there or find out where he is at. He figures you would 3-bet BTF with nines and his flop bet might clear you out or slow you down. He calls your raise because he is getting easy odds on the straight alone. On the turn he bets because he has top pair. He just calls your raise becasue he fears you have a bigger hand, probably a set. On the river he bets because he thinks he might get you to lay down a set, with you fearing the king.

If he has AK he flopped top overcards and an inside straight draw. He bets the flop to win it right there and find out where he is at because he figures you would 3-bet with poker nines and his flop bet should clear you out. He calls your raise because he is getting easy odds to the straight alone. He bets the turn because he has top pair. He calls your raise because his hand might be good and can improve. He bets the river becuause he assumes if he checks you check behind without a king.

AK is more likely but not that much more likely.

I'd call, and it isn't close.

~ Rick

[Lawrence Ng]

[ QUOTE ]
He bets the river becuause he assumes if he checks you check behind without a king.


[/ QUOTE ]

For all we know, Mike's opponent could also easily peg Mike on AK since Mike 3 bet preflop, but since Mike doesn't have AK, it's more likely his opponent does since his opponent did not cap pre-flop and I've found a good number of "resonable players" do not cap AK (and to an even lesser degreee AQ) preflop.

Mike has shown strength pre, flop, turn. Raise and Re-raised. He has clearly defined he has a monster hand.

Though it's unlikely that Mike would 3-bet with KQ, the possibility would exist to his opponent based on how Mike played this hand.

Maybe once in a blue moon is someone going to pull a desperation bet into that river to bluff it or donk bet top two in this river because if Mike has the K himself it's going to cost his opponent an extra BB to call and very few "reasonable players" are that gullible to playing such a hand without the king.

Lawrence

[mikelow]

It's close, but you're getting 8-1 on this call.
At least 15% of the time you won't be shown a king.

[Masquerade]

[ QUOTE ]
It's close, but you're getting 8-1 on this call.
At least 15% of the time you won't be shown a king.

[/ QUOTE ]

True - you'll be shown AA and QQ instead.

[mike l.]

i did the switcheroo. i was utg and held 7d6d and my opponent, a lady who has played 40-80 for years at commerce and plays pretty well, had the TT. i had targeted her specifically for this type of move as soon as i sat down at the table with her. not that i didnt fish it up dreadfully on this hand, clearly i did. but i thought it might be an entertaining hand, and that thinking it through from her perspective would be interesting. again, it's important to remember that at the time she didnt see me for laggro idiot that i am, i had been playing very reasonably up until this point.

she turned her TT face up and said "i just wanted you to show you that you had to go perfect perfect to get there with your ace king." then she mucked. i decided to show her the same courtesy by showing my hand as i raked in the pot.

[DcifrThs]

excellent show. anybody who doesn't show there and then tighten right up is nuts.

-Barron

[tomahawk]

man I would tilt so bad..

[andyfox]

"i had targeted her specifically for this type of move"

I wonder if what you say here is truly what you mean. If you really mean, "I felt she was susceptible to this type of move," I think that's great pre-planning. But to "target" her for this type of move, such that you "fish it up" as you said, is a misapplication, IMHO, of the pre-plannng, because it leads to such fishing.

BTW, you know I'm not a fan of exposing one's bluffs; but in this case, I feel a certain poetic justice in the poker gods (or should I say the poker god? /images/graemlins/wink.gif) punishing her for feeling she had to show off by showing her "great" laydown with her set.

[mike l.]

"I wonder if what you say here is truly what you mean. If you really mean, "I felt she was susceptible to this type of move," I think that's great pre-planning. But to "target" her for this type of move, such that you "fish it up" as you said, is a misapplication, IMHO, of the pre-plannng, because it leads to such fishing."

it's hard to say. it's hard to say where the line is drawn between crackpot and super smart player. i tend to lean towards crackpot in the postgame wrap lately.

"BTW, you know I'm not a fan of exposing one's bluffs; but in this case, I feel a certain poetic justice in the poker gods (or should I say the poker god? ) punishing her for feeling she had to show off by showing her "great" laydown with her set."

i was thinking someone might say that as i was typing it.