HOH II Hand Discussion [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

McMelchior

06-17-2005, 04:10 PM

I don't see villain folding any hand on the flop with the pot offering him t17,100 for his remaining t6,200, so I would say it's a fold or push situation, knowing villain will call the push. A push would offer Hero effective pot odds of 1.3 : 1, or somewhat better than coin flip odds.

Villain's raise is slightly bigger than a pot-size raise; he could be trying to take the pot down right away, or he could be trying to make me think exactly that. It would be a major advantage to know about Hero's table image at this point ... a 4 x BB raise from second position should generally be taken serious, which points toward a very strong hand.

Putting villain on a narrow holding of AA, KK, QQ, JJ and any AK gives me pot equity of only 40% ... in other words I have to pay t10,000 to get t9,300 on the average. Holding one of the 10% top stacks is a nice advantage for stealing and bullying, that's probably diminished if Hero loses t10,000.

To me it looks like a fold, but it's far from crystal clear. For the push speaks that Hero doesn't want other players to start taking shots at his raises with over-the-top re-raises.

I'm curious to see what others (and Harrington) has to say.

Best,

McMelchior (Johan)

Shammu

06-17-2005, 04:15 PM

I would fold, he did not go all-in, he made a big raise, this means he does not mind a call, which in turn means that he has a strong hand, I would fold here and save myself a lot of chips.

A_PLUS

06-17-2005, 04:20 PM

This is how I would think through the hand.

The table has a lot of play left to it. I am not the run away chip leader and I have over 100xBB. So Meta-game issues are important (not just push or fold poker yet). This also means that players can afford to be more passive on the bubble. So, I want as many chips as possible to throw around as the bubble approaches. My opponent probably is thinking the same thing. Against any reasonable range of hands, I am getting the odds to make this call.

In addition to the + CEV situation, folding an early position raise (generally a very good hand) to a reraise may hurt my future F.E. If I lose this hand, I am still in comfortable chip position and am not forcing myself to completely wait for cards.

So I will go for the stop and go here. Im putting my chips in anyway, might as well give him aother chance to fold (although it is unlikely unless he was on a pure bluff)

mlagoo

06-17-2005, 04:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Putting villain on a narrow holding of AA, KK, QQ, JJ and any AK gives me pot equity of only 40% ... in other words I have to pay t10,000 to get t9,300 on the average. Holding one of the 10% top stacks is a nice advantage for stealing and bullying, that's probably diminished if Hero loses t10,000.

To me it looks like a fold, but it's far from crystal clear. For the push speaks that Hero doesn't want other players to start taking shots at his raises with over-the-top re-raises.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is a really tight range. We don't have a read on the player. Add TT and AQs as hands an "average player" might make this raise with. Possibly even 99 (a bit looser). I think it makes it lean more towards a call.

Sluss

06-17-2005, 04:23 PM

Alot of this is perception and reads. If I am top ten in chips at this point I am stealing alot at this table. Probably I have also been re-raised when I had garbage so it is possible that I have mucked to this type of move before. So it wouldn't take a monster for villan to pull off this move.

I don't like calling in this spot because villan has committed himself to this pot. On the flop I will only be pushing or check/folding so if those are my two options why am I calling in the first place.

I could find a fold here if I have really been successful stealing. At certain points of the tournament I am not looking to take coinflips. If I have a good size stack and I am winning a lot of small pots and climbing up the ladder well and I would not have this type of power if my stack was cut by a third.

TexTiger

06-17-2005, 04:26 PM

Haven't received HOH 2 yet, but like many, I would say to push. Villian raised almost half his stack, so likely he will be calling a push. You have a chance to increase your stack by 30% with what is likely a coinflip race, assuming Villian was either a) trying a resteal or b) doesn't have AA, KK or AK. If the Villian is tight it may be a tougher decision, but still callable. Even if you lose you still have a good size stack (80+BB w/ antes), which is still playable. It's also doubtful you will drop into the lower half of the field if you lose, and probably no further than 20th, although not having chip counts makes it tough to determine.

Push.

TT

canis582

06-17-2005, 04:47 PM

Smooth call. You need an A or K to win anyway. You can see the flop for 5000. The villian is so pot committed that he will have to go to the felt with any PP or piece of the board. Less risk more reward this way.

Vancity82

06-17-2005, 04:51 PM

Villan has almost 40 BB left, he's in good shape, why pick the big stack to tangle with? Maybe he wants us to think this, maybe not. But without reads you have to fold, I'm really suprised Dan doesn't say how we're perceived here. I think the first hand range suggested in this tread is right I don't think it's too tight, I don't think this is +EV, let alone +CEV. An all-in situation is undesirable with a non-desperate villian, out play him post-flop next time, because this is a push or fold situation, I say fold.

Piers

06-17-2005, 05:00 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Major tournament

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is the key, if it was just another online competition then I would say its an easy push. In the given situation I think Harrington has a point as you can not just start another tournament and be playing at the same level, but its really close.

However just because it might be right for Harrington to fold here does not mean its right for 99% of the people reading his book.

Sluss

06-17-2005, 05:12 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think this is the key, if it was just another online competition then I would say its an easy push. In the given situation I think Harrington has a point as you can not just start another tournament and be playing at the same level, but its really close.

[/ QUOTE ]

being down to 70 BB knocks you out of the tournament? /images/graemlins/confused.gif

Zinzan

06-17-2005, 05:22 PM

Good one, Lloyd.

Hmmm... I'm sure Dan didn't say push, since Lloyd doesn't agree with him. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

I would lean towards folding, as you have to believe your opponent respects your EP bet and raised anyway. t5000 does seem a bit high, but it's just enough to indicate he's committed to the pot. And perhaps he's protecting something vulnerable like QQ or even KK? He has 3 to act behind him.

AK isn't a made hand. I'm still in great shape with t35800. Yeah, I'd reluctantly lean towards folding, absent any reads or any history of how much stealing I've done to this point.

But I've got this funny feeling Dan suggested a smooth call. Stop-n-go? /images/graemlins/confused.gif

-Z

(anxiously awaiting your thoughts, Lloyd, and Dan's. and my Amazon shipment)

Piers

06-17-2005, 05:23 PM

Loosing the hand reduces the expeted amount of time you will spend in the tournament. You need to find something to do in the increased expected amount of time you will not be playing in the tournament while it is taking place.

(Ok I answered a bit too quickly, witout rereading the problem /images/graemlins/blush.gif )

Lloyd

06-17-2005, 05:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I would fold, he did not go all-in, he made a big raise, this means he does not mind a call, which in turn means that he has a strong hand, I would fold here and save myself a lot of chips.

[/ QUOTE ]
And when I play against you, I'll certainly be making a similar raise with 65s. /images/graemlins/wink.gif Seriously, you're point might be valid but it is certainly within an experienced player's playbook to make this type of bet with less than a premium holding because it LOOKS like a premium holding. You at least have to account for the possibility.

Jurollo

06-17-2005, 05:27 PM

I believe it says in TPFAP that AK is obviously best in a situation where you will see all 5 cards so pushing seems the best to me. If the board comes rags are you really going to feel like committing more chips against what is likely a mid-pair? The only advantage calling would give you is if you had any folding equity on the flop, in this case you dont. For instance, if the board comes all paint and villian holds 88, you push, can he really fold this? Unlikely. In terms of pot odds it is almost a wash as you are getting 2:1 and are likely very close to even against his hand range.
~Justin

Lloyd

06-17-2005, 05:28 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Loosing the hand reduces the expeted amount of time you will spend in the tournament. You need to find something to do in the increased expected amount of time you will not be playing in the tournament while it is taking place.

(Ok I answered a bit too quickly, witout rereading the problem /images/graemlins/blush.gif )

[/ QUOTE ]
I think I understand what you're trying to say but frankly I don't think it's meaningful in the sense that it influences our decision on this hand.

Lloyd

06-17-2005, 05:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Smooth call. You need an A or K to win anyway. You can see the flop for 5000. The villian is so pot committed that he will have to go to the felt with any PP or piece of the board. Less risk more reward this way.

[/ QUOTE ]
How often will you hit an A or K on the flop and be ahead (meaning he doesn't have AA, KK, or a set)? What odds are you getting by calling? How does that compare to the odds of hitting the A or K and being ahead?

Zinzan

06-17-2005, 05:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I would fold, he did not go all-in, he made a big raise, this means he does not mind a call, which in turn means that he has a strong hand, I would fold here and save myself a lot of chips.

[/ QUOTE ]
And when I play against you, I'll certainly be making a similar raise with 65s. /images/graemlins/wink.gif Seriously, you're point might be valid but it is certainly within an experienced player's playbook to make this type of bet with less than a premium holding because it LOOKS like a premium holding. You at least have to account for the possibility.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, that possibility exists, and it does worry me. Would he risk almost 50% of his stack to steal t2100? Maybe he would... hmmmm. Seems like he could find a better time, though, and he has time. I think he's got SOMETHING, but it might be as little as JJ or AK.

-Z

allenciox

06-17-2005, 05:42 PM

I vote for the stop-n-go here, and I'll bet (I don't have HOH 2 yet) that Dan suggested the same thing. I would figure the pot odds like this:

Assume that you are really playing for a reraise all-in (since you will be putting in that many chips anyway). You have to put in 10000 into a pot of 13150. I find it hard to believe that against any reasonable range of hands villian would make this play with that I am not at least a 43% favorite to win. So that leaves either a reraise all-in or a stop-n-go.

Obviously, nobody is going to fold his hand to a reraise all-in preflop. But if his hand misses the flop, he may fold to an all-in bet on the flop. In this case, the stop and go is superior.

Lloyd

06-17-2005, 05:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I would fold, he did not go all-in, he made a big raise, this means he does not mind a call, which in turn means that he has a strong hand, I would fold here and save myself a lot of chips.

[/ QUOTE ]
And when I play against you, I'll certainly be making a similar raise with 65s. /images/graemlins/wink.gif Seriously, you're point might be valid but it is certainly within an experienced player's playbook to make this type of bet with less than a premium holding because it LOOKS like a premium holding. You at least have to account for the possibility.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, that possibility exists, and it does worry me. Would he risk almost 50% of his stack to steal t2100? Maybe he would... hmmmm. Seems like he could find a better time, though, and he has time. I think he's got SOMETHING, but it might be as little as JJ or AK.

-Z

[/ QUOTE ]
I think he has something as well. But you can't dismiss the possibility that he's on a bluff or has some marginal hand. That possibility might not be huge but in a lot of these situations are decision to play or not is so close that any chance of bluffing might sway our decision.

SossMan

06-17-2005, 06:13 PM

I like folding here assuming I have a normal or tight image (which I rarely do). The raise is a little big, so I would discount AA/KK a bit, but he still has to have a tight range of hands to be reraising an UTG raiser. AK is about the minimum hand that UTG is raising there (AA-TT, AK, AQ?). Given that, a normal CO would have to have AA-JJ or AK to raise there. I put him squarely on a hand like JJ or QQ. Given the fact that we are in really good chip position and will be able to punish the people that want to limp into the money in another 20 spots or so, I want to protect my chip position here and will eschew the gamble. If I'm playing it, I will definitely stop and go (only not pushing if I flop an absolute monster like trips or better).

However, I could certainly want to play this hand if I had a read on what my image is and especially if I have folded after raising from EP in the last half hour or so. Clearly, the read on the reraiser is key here too, but given two normal solid players, I think that a fold is in order.

edited to say that I think that it's close enough for any sort of read can push me to play it differently.

woodguy

06-17-2005, 06:16 PM

Here's my best guess.

NOTE: I DID THIS AT WORK, AND HAVEN'T HAD TIME TO REVIEW, AND I'M ON MY WAY OUT THE DOOR FOR DINNER /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Here's my math on pushing (which is what I do)

He calls 90% of the time with (AA-JJ, AK), and folds a bluff 10% of the time (I get the 10% bluff from HOHE I)

He calls and wins 54% of the time -11200
He calls and I win 36% of the time +12100 (when I win, I win the blinds and antes, but I don't lose them when I lose)
He folds 10% of the time +5900

I am not accounting for the 1200 in the pot as I am pushing 100% of the time. (since I don't fold, I am always only betting the size of his stack)

In all its -CEV of 1102

I push for a couple of reasons:

#1) Meta game: I want the table to know that " If you raise me PF, be prepared to play for your stack"
Even if I lose I still have a 86BBs' and will outstack a good portion of the table.
What's the use of being a big stack if you don't take the slight worst of it for a sizable stack increase where you cannot bust?

#2) AK maximizes its value when you see all 5 cards, calling and missing 2/3 of the time is bleah unless you are doing a SnG

3) The 36% of the time that I push and win, I am a MONSTER FREAKING STACK AND THE BUBBLE DRAWITH NIGH!!! There are considerations that when I win I am able to gain chips at a higher rate due to big stack implications. I am convinced that there must be a value put on having a big stack, if you know how to play with it.

The SnG is a valid move, my biggest question is that with the SnG are we getting hands that beat us to fold often enough to compensate for folding hands that we beat that *may* call our PF push. I do not know this answer.

So, it a slight -EV, but I go anyhow for other considerations.

I also think that the range I used is too narrow, but I wanted to do the math with a tight range. In reality I think its closer.

Regards,
Woodguy

ClaytonN

06-17-2005, 06:17 PM

There is no way I'm pushing here. AK is a dog to villain's range of hands, the only possibly hand you can see here that you will like is AQ, but it could easily be AA-KK, and QQ-99 are more likely.

Since you are out of position in relation to the cutoff raiser, however, maybe a stop and go is possible? Push if you hit an ace or king, and check/fold anything else.

Folding here seems a lot more likely though. You have zero folding equity and AK now sucks against AA-99, AK-AQ, and the rare possibility of Ax, 88-22

SpeakEasy

06-17-2005, 06:20 PM

Fold.

My estimate of his range of hands, with my % chance of winning vs this hand with my AKo:
AA (6.5%)
KK (30%)
QQ (43%)
JJ (43%)
TT (43%)
AK (50%)
AQ (75%)
bluff (63%)

My equity in the pot: (.065 x 23,300) + (.3 x 23,300) + (.43 x 23,300) + (.43 x 23,300) + (.43 x 23,300) + (.5 x 23,300) + (.75 x 23,300) + (.63 x 23,300) = 82,365. 82,365/185,700 = 44%

My equity based on this range of hands is 44%, and my cost is 11,200/23,300 = 48%.

I’m not getting the right odds to call on this range of hands, plus I have 119 BB left if I fold and am in great position. Factor in a few other possible hands he has like AJ, KQ, 99, etc., and it gets a little better, but still not enough dead money in the pot to make this a good bet.

SossMan

06-17-2005, 06:22 PM

p.s.

position rules

06-17-2005, 06:36 PM

You either push or fold. At first I thought, stop and go. Stop and go doesn't make sense here. Your opponent doesn't have enough chips to make a difference. What on the flop would change your mind? If your are beat now, you will probably be beat after the flop. The only cards that might difference are a flop of QJT. You will be FTA. You have no more information than you do now but your opponent will. If you are ahead, you want him to push his chips in. If you are behind, you have potential to improve. If you know your opponent, that he doesn't bluff and he knows the value of his hand, you might fold. But not knowing anything more, push your chips in. You will survive to the next hand if you are wrong but if your opponent is wrong, he will not.

Walt

SossMan

06-17-2005, 06:41 PM

If he has TT and the flop is Qxy and you push, you don't think that he'll think about folding? He still will have a sizeable stack.

Piers

06-17-2005, 06:46 PM

The peculiar thing about tournament is that different people with contrary opinions, based on completely different models can both be correct. This can be true even if they are both primarily motivated by monetary considerations.

So for a close situation like this, the most tempting answer is that it does not really matter much. Whatever you do is likely to be correct for you.

the_joker

06-17-2005, 06:50 PM

With AK you want to see all the cards, so getting all in pre-flop is good. Plus you are out of position and going all in negates that as well. You're against a short stack so you can't do too much damage to your own stack.

Piers

06-17-2005, 07:05 PM

Repeated post /images/graemlins/blush.gif

bugstud

06-17-2005, 07:14 PM

[ QUOTE ]
With AK you want to see all the cards, so getting all in pre-flop is good. Plus you are out of position and going all in negates that as well. You're against a short stack so you can't do too much damage to your own stack.

[/ QUOTE ]

stop n go lets you see all 5 too, fwiw

the_joker

06-17-2005, 07:34 PM

hmm, true, thanks.

Lloyd

06-17-2005, 07:48 PM

As expected, a wide range of opinions. Interestingly, Harrington changes the stack size of his villain with two sub-examples and the decision is pretty clear. If his stack is smaller, you've got the odds to go all-in. If his stack is bigger, you've got enough implied odds that you can call and see a flop. It's a medium stack that causes the difficulty.

Harrington says you have three options: call, fold, push. He rules out calling saying that with AK you want to make an all or nothing decision since that enables you to see all five cards (especially true when out of position).

This is in a chapter about pot odds in all-in situations. So in thinking about pushing the first step (according to Harrington) is, of course, to put him on a range of hands. Because of the villain's stack size and his need to start being more aggressive, Harrington says it's "very likely that he has a pair lower than your cards" (QQ or below). Although not dismissing AA or KK, he thinks those are less likely holdings because 1) you have AK; 2) most pairs are lower than KK; and 3) he very likely would have played differently with AA or KK to keep the hero in the pot (this is what Harrington says). He recognizes that there is a possibility you're up against a non-pair and that this cancels out the possibility the villain has AA or KK. So he's focusing on a pair lower than KK. I don't think that's an unreasonable assumption and in a live tournament when we don't have Excel, Poker Stove, and all the other tools we can't make these calculations too complex.

If we put him all-in, we need to risk another T10,000 to win T13,300 (the blinds, antes, our original raise, his raise, and the remainder of his stack). So that's 1.33 to 1 odds.

To decide whether or not we should push, Harrington says (and I hope I'm not giving up too much hear - obviously go buy the book and see lots of examples like this) we have to consider:

1) Our odds- against a smaller pair we're about a 1.2/1.3 to 1 underdog. So we're just about getting the right odds to call (again, we're ignoring hands like AA, KK, AK, AQ);

2) Our standing in the tournament - we're in good shape toward the top of the leader board with lots of chips. Harrington says that a fair bet increases the volatility of our position without increasing our equity (because our equity only increases if a decision is +EV, not neutral EV). He says that most good players wouldn't be interested in this type of volatility for a neutral bet and that if you thought you were one of the weaker players left in the tournament, or if the table were particularly tough, maybe you'd gamble. But in general, "you shouldn't be interested in a high-stakes even-money bet here."; and

3) Need to eliminate the opponent - here, we're a long ways from the bubble so eliminating an oppontent doesn't make a huge difference.

So he says calling is horrible. Pushing takes on unnecessary risks without it increasing your equity. So folding is the correct decision.

I never would have thought folding in this situation was correct. The one play that Harrington doesn't reference is the stop-and-go, and that's what I immediately started to think about in a modified sense.

I don't think our villain is making this play with AQ, KQ, etc. If he were, then we'd push in a heart beat and a stop-and-go doesn't make sense because we don't want him to fold a dominated hand. But I think we can rule those hands out as likely holdings.

I'm not sure about ruling out AA or KK. If I were playing against a fairly tight player and had AA or KK I'd play the hand pretty much that way. You've got to think your opponent (our hero in this case) has a strong hand and will take the odds you've given him. At the same time, I think the more likely holding is QQ-TT. I would personally base my decision primarily on those hands.

Our all-in decision pretty much stays the same. We're about a 1.3 to 1 dog against QQ-TT so it's still a "high volatiltiy, neutral equity" situation. But this is where the modified stop and go becomes interesting.

We'll flop an A or K about 36% of the time. We don't have the right odds to call if we play only if an A or K hits the flop. By calling we're getting 1.86 to 1 odds and our chances of getting an A or K is about 2 to 1 - it's not good enough.

But what about the chance that he holds TT and a Q or J hits the flop. Or he has JJ and a Q hits the flop. What I'm trying to figure out is what percentage of the time we'll:

1) make top pair or better on the flop and win (taking into consideration times that he'll call because of pot odds versus folding because of the overcard);
2) get him to fold TT or JJ if an overcard (that we don't have like J or Q) hits; or
3) we push when a J or Q hits, he calls with a better hand, but we draw out on him (pair, straight, etc.).

I also think it's important to consider the meta-game like others have suggested. We don't want others to start re-raising us and put us to tough decisions. On the other hand, as long as we play solid hands from early position perhaps somebody will bluff at us and we'll pick them off. I don't think these cancel each other out but we have to consider both.

More later . . .

Zinzan

06-17-2005, 07:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
With AK you want to see all the cards, so getting all in pre-flop is good. Plus you are out of position and going all in negates that as well. You're against a short stack so you can't do too much damage to your own stack.

[/ QUOTE ]

stop n go lets you see all 5 too, fwiw

[/ QUOTE ]

The more I think about it, if I were to play this hand (and I'm still leaning towards a fold absent any reads or any history of my own table image), I would stop-n-go rather than push PF.

I expect to be called if I push here.

If I miss and he has QQ/JJ (maybe TT), he would be getting my 11,000 chips anyway. If I miss and he also has AK, he might fold.

If I hit and he has QQ/JJ, he might fold. If I hit and he has AK, we'll split the pot.

In a major tournament, I don't put him on a much wider range than this. AQs is possible, I suppose.

I could be wrong, of course. In an online tournament, I would play this hand. I bubbled out of last week's 200K when my raise UTG (just below avg. stack, AKs) was pushed from the button (avg. stack). He turned over AT.

-Z

MLG

06-17-2005, 08:13 PM

I haven't read the book yet, but here are my thoughts. I think there are two very different situations. There are players for whom AQ is in their reraising range here, if that's the case then folding is a big nono, and pushing becomes the right play (a stop n go doesnt work because you let AQ off the hook on the flop too much). If AQ isn't in the range then I think its a fold. We have no FE preflop and this is the rare case where the fact that AK isn't quite 50/50 is important. Also, while early in a tourney I might be willing to take this risk to stack build, we are beyond stack building territory now and into stack weilding territory. Its much more important to preserve the big stack and use it to bully as the bubble approaches.

Now, as for the other stack sizes,
[ QUOTE ]
If his stack is bigger, you've got enough implied odds that you can call and see a flop.

[/ QUOTE ]
I strenuously disagree with that statement. I don't know if its Harrington's or you paraphrasing him, but generally AK is an awful implied odds hand. The times you flop a pair you are unlikely to get much money at all from a hand you beat (except for maybe AQ but we aren't inluding that in his range). So I think a call is pretty bad. I think its still either a fold or push situation. Pushing is still appealing because many/most opponents will fold 1010/JJ all the time, and QQ some reasonable percentage of the time. Of course, as the stacks continue to get deeper, the risk/reward changes so that you are winning a smaller and smaller proportion of your stack, and at some point (I'm not really sure where) that would dictate a fold instead of a push because the chances of running into AA/KK outweighs the gain from getting folds/racing underpairs.

Zinzan

06-17-2005, 08:21 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
With AK you want to see all the cards, so getting all in pre-flop is good. Plus you are out of position and going all in negates that as well. You're against a short stack so you can't do too much damage to your own stack.

[/ QUOTE ]

stop n go lets you see all 5 too, fwiw

[/ QUOTE ]

The more I think about it, if I were to play this hand (and I'm still leaning towards a fold absent any reads or any history of my own table image), I would stop-n-go rather than push PF.

I expect to be called if I push here.

If I miss and he has QQ/JJ (maybe TT), he would be getting my 11,000 chips anyway. If I miss and he also has AK, he might fold.

If I hit and he has QQ/JJ, he might fold. If I hit and he has AK, we'll split the pot.

In a major tournament, I don't put him on a much wider range than this. AQs is possible, I suppose.

I could be wrong, of course. In an online tournament, I would play this hand. I bubbled out of last week's 200K when my raise UTG (just below avg. stack, AKs) was pushed from the button (avg. stack). He turned over AT.

-Z

[/ QUOTE ]

Meant to mention one other obvious stop-n-go scenario on the flop:

If I miss on a Qxx board and he has JJ/TT, he might fold.

-Z

Lloyd

06-17-2005, 08:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know if its Harrington's or you paraphrasing him, but generally AK is an awful implied odds hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
Paraphrasing of course.

If we push pre-flop, "your pot odds are now about 1.22 to 1. Now you're definitely taking the worst of it if your ace-king is up against a pair, so the all-in move is out. At this point it's call or fold. If you call, you're getting a little less than 2 to 1 odds on your bet and the odds of hitting an ace or a king on the flop are a little better than 30 percent, so your chances of hitting are a little less than 2 to 1.

Do your implied odds if you hit your hand compensate? Probably. Your opponent might decide he's done with the hand if an ace or King flops, but then again he might now. I'd call here against anyone but a super-tight player."

MLG

06-17-2005, 08:46 PM

Oh, i didn't realize that the bigger stack wasn't big enough to not make him pot stuck.

In that case its easy to calculate your implied odds. The amount left in his stack x the frequency he pushes the flop when you hit.

If he isn't potstuck though (he raised less than 1/3 his stack) I think calling is a pretty big nono.

ptmusic

06-17-2005, 09:19 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Oh, i didn't realize that the bigger stack wasn't big enough to not make him pot stuck.

In that case its easy to calculate your implied odds. The amount left in his stack x the frequency he pushes the flop when you hit.

If he isn't potstuck though (he raised less than 1/3 his stack) I think calling is a pretty big nono.

[/ QUOTE ]

Whoa - your first sentence's triple negative has my head spinning.

Are you saying that because AK is not a very good implied odds hand (generally speaking), if villain's stack is big enough that he could fold the flop then you should push or fold (don't call)?

-ptmusic

MLG

06-17-2005, 09:22 PM

If villain's stack is big enough that he can fold preflop, then pushing or folding is better preflop than calling out of position. That statement needs to be qualified though. If the stacks are very deep pushing becomes bad because you lose so many chips when you run into AA/KK.

A_PLUS

06-17-2005, 09:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If villain's stack is big enough that he can fold preflop, then pushing or folding is better preflop than calling out of position. That statement needs to be qualified though. If the stacks are very deep pushing becomes bad because you lose so many chips when you run into AA/KK.

[/ QUOTE ]

Reminds me of a comment Paul Phillips made in his blog about a very similar hand, although from earlier in the tournament.

[ QUOTE ]

Some of the comments about that hand remind me of what a painfully skewed idea of poker people get from watching television. At the end of a tournament an average stack is usually about 10-20 big blinds, not much more. In the first round we have TWO HUNDRED big blinds apiece.

So if I make it 275 in early position with AKo and a good player makes it 1300 into the whole field with each of us having 20K total, how do you suggest I play this hand in a way that has higher EV than folding? The key words here are "reverse implied odds". They are so oppressive in this spot that I can't even see my hand in front of my face. I would be more inclined to call with almost anything BUT AK.

If this sounds like madness to you then keep thinking about it until it doesn't.

[/ QUOTE ]

MLG

06-17-2005, 10:46 PM

yup, its exactly what he's saying. infact that post was what crystalized the idea in my head.

ptmusic

06-17-2005, 11:33 PM

A_PLUS

06-18-2005, 03:34 AM

[ QUOTE ]
yup, its exactly what he's saying. infact that post was what crystalized the idea in my head.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the first thing that came to my mind when I read the hand. Do, you think this hand falls neatly into the same category? I thought, the key idea in that hand, was that if he pushed preflop, he would only get called by AA or KK, so giving the villan a tight range, he is either winning a pot worth apx 10% of his stack, or getting called by a hand that dominates him. This makes a push very -ev (reverse implied odds). Im not so sure this hand (HOH)is in the same class. I think the range for a call will be wider, and you are not risking your tounament with the play. I do agree that the read on the villan (AQ? TT? in range) is of vital importance.

MLG

06-18-2005, 03:42 AM

no, this hand is different. the stacks are much much shorter, so its still all-in or fold, but for different reasons.

jgodin

06-18-2005, 04:33 AM

[ QUOTE ]

I do agree that the read on the villan (AQ? TT? in range) is of vital importance.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. In fact, its the read of the villain and my perceived image that dictates this decision. In general though, I don't **** around UTG +1. Villain has to know I mean business. That being said, I think we could eliminate some possible holdings of the villain (In my mind, AQ is out. Of course, that is only in MY mind). This leaves me as either a dog or a major dog (unlikely but possible). So with little else to go on, I say fold.

As for the stop and go, certainly villain will THINK about folding JJ to a Qxx flop, but whether or not they will is open for debate. There are quite a few chips out there and, faced with the situation if I was the villain, I'd probably call.

baronzeus

06-18-2005, 05:02 AM

I haven't read anything here or HOHII yet, but I often fold to a full table in this situation. There are better spots for me to take money from my opponents.

MLG

06-18-2005, 01:21 PM

OK, lets look at 3 very different situations.

1. Me and Villain both have 20 BBx. I raise to 3x and he makes it 9x. It costs me 17x to put him all-in and I'm risking that to win the 13.5x in the pot and his remaining 11x which means im risking 17 to win 24.5 or almost 1.5:1. Clearly thats more than enough to push getting a good price (this is what Harrington was talking about).

2. We each have 35x. Now when I push my opponent will fold a lot here, maybe fold everything except AA/KK which means I win his 9x a high percentage of the time, and occasionally lose 32x (although I also occasionally win if he calls with QQ/JJ)

3. We each have 200x. When I win I still only win 9x, but when I'm called its almost always by AA/KK and I lose 200x. This is a situation where pushing would be very bad.

I can see times where I would call a reraise when I'm out of position when the stacks are in between 1 and 2. When I'm getting a bad price to set my opponent all-in, but I think he might put more money in even if i flop a pair. I don't think I would call a reraise with 200x because i will very rarely make more money when I flop a pair, unless I flop second best. Hands like that (win small/lose big) are very dangerous when deep stacked.

These are the 3 extreme cases, stuff in the middle gets more complicated.

A_PLUS

06-18-2005, 01:47 PM

Very well said.

I do see why you could fold in this spot much better now. I still am not convinced that it is a fold yet. Given that this is a major tournament, there is a higher % of a chance that your opponent could think you are making a move and have pot committed himself with 99-QQ. I also think AQ is unlikely, but not out of the question for hands that he will call you with.

Also, if this is me. I push (or SNG). Being a major event, I am going to need every bit of F.E. I can muster, and also given that my skill level is most likely not above average for the field, I dont hate a little gambling here to accumulate a monster stack for the bubble.

ptmusic

06-18-2005, 09:21 PM

[ QUOTE ]
OK, lets look at 3 very different situations.

1. Me and Villain both have 20 BBx. I raise to 3x and he makes it 9x. It costs me 17x to put him all-in and I'm risking that to win the 13.5x in the pot and his remaining 11x which means im risking 17 to win 24.5 or almost 1.5:1. Clearly thats more than enough to push getting a good price (this is what Harrington was talking about).

2. We each have 35x. Now when I push my opponent will fold a lot here, maybe fold everything except AA/KK which means I win his 9x a high percentage of the time, and occasionally lose 32x (although I also occasionally win if he calls with QQ/JJ)

3. We each have 200x. When I win I still only win 9x, but when I'm called its almost always by AA/KK and I lose 200x. This is a situation where pushing would be very bad.

I can see times where I would call a reraise when I'm out of position when the stacks are in between 1 and 2. When I'm getting a bad price to set my opponent all-in, but I think he might put more money in even if i flop a pair. I don't think I would call a reraise with 200x because i will very rarely make more money when I flop a pair, unless I flop second best. Hands like that (win small/lose big) are very dangerous when deep stacked.

These are the 3 extreme cases, stuff in the middle gets more complicated.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks! Just to be clear, for your 3 examples, are you saying:

1. A clear push.

2. Push or Fold, but certainly do not call.

3. A clear fold.

-ptmusic

Grisgra

07-24-2005, 06:44 PM

My thoughts . . . which are apparently completely different from what everyone else says -- call, then fold if the flop doesn't hit.
-------------------
Note: I suck at NL tournies, so if my reasoning is wrong here . . . well, I'm sure you'll tell me .

On p. 234-238 he describes the following situation:

--------
Middle stages of major tourney, 9 people at the table, Blinds are $150/$300, Ante $50 (starting pot is $900) and you have $37,000. You're in the top ten in chips. You pick up AKo, raise to $1200, and it's folded to the cutoff, who has $11,200 and raises to $5000. Folded back to you.

Do you fold, call, or raise?

Parts B and C of the question change the size of the opponent's stack to, respectively, to $16,200 and $8,200.
-----------
Dan's answers to these questions, are, respectively, "Fold", "Call", and "Raise him all-in". These answers are based on reasoning that this is mostly an implied-odds question, given that eliminating one more opponent isn't a big deal. Also, we have no desire to engage in high-stakes even-money bets.

I have no problem with his reasoning for "B" and "C", but here's what he says about the initial question (short stack has $11,200, or $6,200 left).

"Calling is the worst option here. With AK, you'd usually prefer to make an all-or-nothing decision, since that enables you to see all five cards and thus get the most value for your two high cards. That's especially true when you're out of position and your opponent is on a short stack and mostly committed to the pot already. He will usually put you all-in after the flop, and since you know that, you need to make your decision now whether or not to play the hand for his full stack . . . "

He goes on to reason that a fair approximation to the villain's hand here is that you're up against a pair lower than kings. Raising him all-in risks $10,000 to win a total of $13,300, giving you 1.33-to-1 odds. Because you're about a 1.3-to-1 dog against a pocket pair, risking 30% of your stack for an even EV proposition is unwise. So fold.

BUT . . . here's what he says regarding scenario B, in which your opponent isn't as shortstacked, he has $16,200 at the beginning of the hand.

"If you call, you're getting a little less than 2-to-1 odds on your bet (the pot is $7,100 and you need to put in $3,800 to call" and the odds of hitting an ace or king are a little better than 30%, so your chances of hitting are a little less than 2-1. Do your implied odds if you hit your hand compensate? Probably. Your opponent might decide he's done with the hand if an ace or king flops, but then again he might not. I'd call here against anyone but a super-tight player."

Bwah?!?!!!

Let's say we just call in the original situation with AKo, and decide we will fold to the shortstack's all-in if we don't flop an ace or king. We're still getting those 2-1 initial odds, but our implied odds are even better than they were before, because our opponent is even more likely to put in $$ with the worst hand. Even if shortstack-boy folds if an ace flops, and goes all-in 100% of the time if a king flops, then we lose that $3,800 70% of the time, but win $7,100 about 15% of the time and $13,300 15% of the time (roughly). EV looks to be about +$400, and we're risking only 10% of our stack. And if the shortstack is sometimes likely to go all-in even if an ace flops (certainly possible given just how little money he has left), our EV is even better.

What am I missing? It seems to me that the assumption that we want to go all-in preflop with AKo against the short stack is a bad one, because it rules out a call that is +EV. If calling isn't +EV against this guy, why is it +EV against the guy with the $16,200 stack, who is much less likely to push another six grand into the pot with a losing hand?

RoyalLance

07-24-2005, 10:19 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If calling isn't +EV against this guy, why is it +EV against the guy with the $16,200 stack, who is much less likely to push another six grand into the pot with a losing hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry, I have to agree with Dan. Calling a raise who from the player is pot committed is a very weak play, compared to calling a the same raise from the player who has more chips you can win if you hit a hand and fold if you don't and he bets at you. Pushing on any of the two hands can be very costly (though the latter is much more dangerous) to your big stack.

Grisgra

07-24-2005, 11:21 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If calling isn't +EV against this guy, why is it +EV against the guy with the $16,200 stack, who is much less likely to push another six grand into the pot with a losing hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry, I have to agree with Dan. Calling a raise who from the player is pot committed is a very weak play, compared to calling a the same raise from the player who has more chips you can win if you hit a hand and fold if you don't and he bets at you. Pushing on any of the two hands can be very costly (though the latter is much more dangerous) to your big stack.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree it *sounds* weak. Now explain to me, EV-wise, why it *is* weak. Looks to me like our EV is slightly better while the chips we put at risk is only 10% of our stack instead of 30%.

m1illion

07-25-2005, 12:52 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Here's a hand from Harrington on Hold Em Volume II where I'm not sure if I entirely agree with Dan's analysis and conclusions. If you have a copy of HOH II please don't include Dan's comments here until people have a chance to respond.

Major tournament. Sixty players remain and 30 get paid.

Chip count:

Hero: T37000 (top 10 in tourney)
Villain: T11200

Blinds: T150/300/50ante (9-handed)

You are second to act. UTG folds. You have A/images/graemlins/spade.gif K/images/graemlins/heart.gif and raise to T1200. Everyone folds to villain in cutoff who raises to T5000 (leaving T6200 in stack). Folded back to you.

What do you do and why?

[/ QUOTE ]

Tournament strategy probably requires a fold here. Sure, the money may be "far away" but you are in the top 10 and can find way better spots than this one to risk 10k.
Everyone seems to be looking at the hand. I'm looking at a very enviable position in this tourney that is not worth risking here.
As for the hand, it seems as if the raiser has to have a legit hand that is no less than AK. He knows you might push right back since you have raised and he therefore has to be prepared for that. If he moves like this with junk he knows he must fold to a reraise and will anyone really take that risk? Having said that it occurs to me that raiser has exactly AK because he wants to see the flop but will push if he has to.
Wish we had this much time to discuss hands when playing.

NLfool

07-25-2005, 02:40 AM

AK is so overvalued. It's still no pair and this isn't online. It's a total bluff maybe 10% of the time (if that)and you're beat the rest.

PrayingMantis

07-25-2005, 09:27 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I also think it's important to consider the meta-game like others have suggested. We don't want others to start re-raising us and put us to tough decisions.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that future meta-game considerations like this are somewhat irrelevant for the decsion here, since we're holding AK. People will see us raise, and then push agaisnt a reraise with AK. Many players will do the same with AK, there isn't much of a statement in such a move. It's not some aggressive move with a wacky hand that will make them be afraid of you. People can't deduce that you won't fold weaker hands if reraised.

Also, as was stated elsewhere in this thread, hero's behaviour and villain's behavior in _previous_ hands are extremely important for the decsion, and could turn a push to a fold and vice versa.

I completely see why a fold might be a better option in many such "model" situations (i.e, without specific reads), as I don't think villain's range is enough to make a push anything more than slightly +EV (as it's a major tournament), and with our stack size and (I assume) control of the game and table, it's a bit too much of our stack to risk here.

murfnyc

07-25-2005, 10:33 AM

[ QUOTE ]
If he has TT and the flop is Qxy and you push, you don't think that he'll think about folding? He still will have a sizeable stack.

[/ QUOTE ]

But the same can be said for Kxy or Axy and you don't want him folding....or do you play the flop differently if you hit.
Like Woodguy stated I'm not sure which outweighs here the times he folds where you want him to fold vs call, but it's definitely worth considering.

Grisgra

07-25-2005, 10:45 AM

Image considerations aside, I fail to see why this isn't slightly +EV while at the same time risking only a small fraction (10%) of your stack. As I said in my earlier post . . . if my math is wrong, someone tell me.

Seems to me that being in position against a desperate shortstack that will go in postflop with almost anything, in this spot, given your ~2:1 odds with a call, it's +EV to just see a flop. And that the kneejerk reaction of "With a hand like AK, against a shortstack you want to get all your money in preflop to get full value for your hand" is perhaps true as a generality, but not applicable in this situation.

I haven't seen this mentioned yet, but I also haven't seen anyone explain why mathematically it isn't the best move to make.

locutus2002

07-25-2005, 01:23 PM

Hero folds.

Hero is big stack and raised 4XBB in EP. Villain has to respect this bet as a premium hand to commit what could be all his chips in the hand. I think its unlikely that villain is stealing or considers hero to be stealing.

Villain has ~40XBB and has too many chips to just go all in. Villain's bet shows a strong commitment to the hand, as he will be getting 2.7:1 to call all the rest of his chips at any point in the hand: he's not folding BTF. Hero is getting the same great odds to call an all-in bet ATF even if hero whifs the flop. All of villain's chips are likely to go in, and hero will have to call.

Since hero is calling all of villain's chips he is getting 13K:10K or 1.3:1 to call, and needs to be 43% in the hand. Here are some possible ranges for villain but more info is needed based on his previous play.

Supertight: AA-QQ only (All other hands including AK,JJ don't raise EP 4XBB large stack opener)
Tight: AA-JJ, AK
Loose: AA-TT,AK,AQ, assortment of stuff

Without any other info, I would have to choose the tight range for villain because this is a major tournament, villain is likely to get all his chips in, and the strong EP opener smacks of strength. In this case hero does not meet the CEV hurdle to call all the rest of villain's chips, but it's close enough to be even or only slightly CEV--, given my high propensity to miscalculate. AKs would be about CEV=0.

Overall I think hero should avoid CEV=0 gambles in this situation because his 125XBB stack is likely to find a better situation to invest 40XBB than this.

How will it affect hero's image and mentality if he folds? It's going to make hero look very cautious, and hero is going to feel very cautious. Pushing will have the opposite effect.

Grisgra

07-25-2005, 01:29 PM

In HOH2, Harrington puts his opponent on a pocket pair that's QQ or lower. If that were your read, doesn't that change the math? You no longer call when he goes all-in postflop if you haven't hit an ace or king.

locutus2002

07-25-2005, 02:39 PM

In the tight range AA-JJ, AK, villain still has ak 33% of the time which means hero should call ATF in most cases when he whifs.

If you can read villain for QQ, then its a clear fold BTF.

I haven't read Vol II, but it seems to me that villain would play AA,KK like this in the hopes of trapping hero to be committed to the pot. I suppose it depends on the situation and the players.

JC_Saves

07-25-2005, 02:49 PM

(blind response)

His reraise tells you he is putting all his chips into the pot and he hopes that you call him. I would think long and hard about just calling this and seeing what the flop brings. there is 6650 in the pot and it costs you 3800 to call 1.75 to 1 and against possible hands that he makes this move with ie AA-JJ, AK, AQ you are a coin flip, so I would say calling would be in line and waiting to see flop and reevaluate

If you miss the flop you can get way from this when he goes all in, which is what he is going to do if you go all in preflop anyway. This way you at least leave yourself a way out of this hand.

If you hit your A on the flop or the K then of course you put him all in and hope to see QQ--22 or AQ and that ilk.

Grisgra

07-25-2005, 02:57 PM

[ QUOTE ]

If you can read villain for QQ, then its a clear fold BTF.

[/ QUOTE ]

Jesus christ, I know I'm new to this forum, but . . . I don't see how so many people can be so dense. Not that I am 100% sure I'm right, but that I keep getting responses that make assertions based off of hand-waving assumptions instead of cold, hard math/pot-odds. (Which was, after all, the gist of this part of HOH2).

If you read him for QQ, call getting almost 2:1 odds. 70% of the time you do not get an A or K on the flop. Fold when he goes all-in. 30% of the time you get an A or K. Call when he goes all-in, as he will very very likely feel pot-committed.

It's $3,800 to call preflop, pot is $7,100 before your call.

Roughly,
70% of the time you lose $3,800.
30% of the time you win $13,300 ($7,100 + his remaining $6,200).

-0.7*3800 + 0.3*13300 = +$1,330 EV. And we risk only 10% of our stack. As I showed in my first post, even if he folds when an A hits, and pushes when a K hits, this is still +EV.

I completely fail to understand why everyone insists we need to go all-in against this guy after the flop if we just call preflop. I've seen not one iota of math explaining why my position is incorrect -- if we put villain on a small pocket, call/fold if we miss, call/all-in if we hit.

locutus2002

07-25-2005, 03:05 PM

You may be right. I can't read anyone that closely though.

In my tight range AA-JJ, AK.

AA-3 ways
KK-3 ways
QQ-JJ 12 2ways
AK 9 ways

You don't win the 30% of the time an A or K comes up.

And you have to call ATF because villain has AK 33% of the time and you have 6 outs 40% of the time.

Grisgra

07-25-2005, 03:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You may be right. I can't read anyone that closely though.

In my tight range AA-JJ, AK.

AA-3 ways
KK-3 ways
QQ-JJ 12 2ways
AK 9 ways

You don't win the 30% of the time an A or K comes up.

And you have to call ATF because villain has AK 33% of the time and you have 6 outs 40% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

With a range that tight, I fold. I was speaking directly to Harrington's assumption that we're up against a pocket pair of QQ or lower.

And we do not have odds to chase our 6-outer postflop. If we did, then just going all-in preflop would be best.

Pot size after our flop call is $10,900. Villain puts us in for $6,200 more. We need to call $6,200 to potentially make $17,100, but because we are a 3:1 dog when we miss postflop, we fold.

No one has suggested this, so I will (I was kinda waiting) -- the assumption that we're up against a pocket pair QQ or lower was an assumption made to simplify matters for odds (i.e., we're a 1.3:1 dog). This is a mix of the facts that we're probably up against a smaller pocket 75% of the time, but 12.5% of the time we're up against AA or KK (which crush us), and 12.5% of the time we're up against AK or AQ or KQ or whatever (which we either tie with or dominate).

If we were 100% sure that we were up against a pocket pair of any size, then my line is clearly +EV, and I think that not considering it is a flaw. Because of the mix-of-hands issue, though, the answer might be a little different.

But I think that completely ruling out calling with AK preflop -- just flat-out stating that it's bad to do against this short-stack -- is just plain wrong. Fact is that this short-stack isn't so short that calling is necessarily bad. It's not bad to call against the guy with $16,200, maybe it's not bad to call against the guy with $11,200 either.

blackaces13

08-08-2005, 05:03 PM

In fact, here is a post that I made before I even read this thread because I noticed the same thing about this hand. Lloyd said my post would be better off in this thread than in a new one so here it is:

On p. 234 Harrington talks of getting your 1200 open raise re-raised to 5000 by the cutoff who only has 6200 chips left after his re-raise. Harrington also says, "He will usually put you all in after the flop, and since you know that, you need to make your decision now whether or not to play the hand for his full stack."

Then it works out that you're getting 1.33:1 which is about a fair price against a small pair which we are fairly confident is what we're up against (AA/KK and unpaired hands cancel each other out).

Harrington says to fold this hand but to CALL if the re-raiser had 11,200 left after his raise as opposed to the 6200 he has in the original problem. I cannot see how this can be. How can a call be wrong against a player who will almost certainly go all in on the flop and be correct against a player much less likely to do so and pay you off when an A or a K flops?

To call in either situation we are getting almost 2:1 to call with AK v. a suspected underpair. Harrington says to call in the second example because we "probably" have implied odds. "Your opponent might decide he's done with the hand if an A or a K flops, but then again he might not". Compare this with the statement I quoted in the first paragraph of the short stack almost certainly going all in on any flop since he's pot committed and it seems pretty clear that we are getting BETTER implied odds by calling a small stack.

I don't see how folding AK is right v. a pot committed small stack and calling is right agasint a larger stack who is not committed. The implied odds used to justify the call in the second example are even stronger in the first example and the pot odds are exactly the same.