calling all in with 5-2 o

[sevendeuce]

Yesterday I was in a low stakes tourny, about 20 players left last 10 get paid. After losing most of my chips on a hand, I am then dealt dealt 5-2o as the SB. Blinds were t1500-3000. I have t3000 left after anteing SB. The average stack is t14,000 with the next lowest being t8000. The table folds to the button who raises the pot. Button is an agressive player who frequently plays position. I fold as does the BB, who then says he cannot believe that I could
possibly fold when I had so few chips left and some value.
I told him my hand and he said it didn't matter and I should have played blind. I maintain that it is better to fold as I then have 7 free hands to choose from before I have to ante and am bound to see a face card or better cards than that in any one of those hands, on which to make my all in stand.
I don't mind being beat when I have cards that I have some chance with, but think it is pointless going all in on such bad cards when I seem to have no chance at all of winning.
Many times in tournies I have made a comeback when having very few chips and adopting this waiting strategy and doubling up several times to get back in the game.

Who is right?

[ohkanada]

Lets do the math. There is 9000 in the pot before the decision. (4500 button, 3000 BB and 1500 you). You need to add 3000 which is 3:1.

52o against A8o wins about 1/3 of the time (2:1).

Call with any 2 unless you know for sure he has an overpair.

Ken Poklitar

[sevendeuce]

the pot was 1500 sb 3000bb and 6000button. I was having to call all in for 3000, assuming the bb folds.

However if I fold and wait for a hand when not in blinds there would be 1500 sb 3000bb and my 3000, assuming sb folds giving me 3-2 odds or 2-1 if sb calls. Where I play it is standard practice in tournys in this situation for the sb to call also and then both blinds check to the river regardless of what they hit so that the all in player is playing against 2 hands thereby reducing his chance of survival.

Although these odds are lower I will be playing a hand I have chosen to play, although within 7 hands, against 2 random hands. surely it is better to play a hand with a higher chance of winning but smaller payback than a longshot with better payback. My aim is to survive. Is my thinking wrong?

[Bubmack]

I think your idea of a long-shot is probably too long. With those terrible little hands where the opposing player has 2 overcards, you are still going to win about 30-35% of the time. Remember you are heads up - not at a full table! Only when the opponent has an overpair do the odds begin to look extremely grim.

So there is positive expectation for calling...but you mentioned why not wait until you have a better hand. Well unless you get a big pair, you are going to be on the flip side of our equation (not a prohibitive favorite) and the BB will call to see if his random hand can suck out.

Also, what are you wainting for? Wouldn't you rather double up with 6000 instead of 3,000. If you double up at 3,000 - you are exactly where you were prior to the BB.

It is sort of like waiting for a better lifeboat as the ship is sinking. /forums/images/icons/blush.gif

This also applies for other hands when you are a larger stack, too. If someone moves in while you are sitting in the BB, and their move-in is only about 1.5x the BB - please don't fold. That just drives me crazy when I see players do that!!!

Goodluck,

Bubs

[ohkanada]

The reason I said 4500 not 6000, is you would only get 4500 of the 6000.

The one aspect I did not mention was the BB. My original odds are based on if the BB is going to fold. But even when you add the BB with random overcards you still should call. It is closer.

I simmed Ad8h vs 9h6s vs 5c2s.

You win about 24% of the time which is plenty compared to the pot. And when you win you have a stack of 14500. If you fold and wait for a hand, you will only have enough for a call so the BB and most likely SB will call. Now I do agree you are likely to have a better hand but no guarantees and you would win a smaller pot plus the blinds may be increasing.

Ken Poklitar

[Greg (FossilMan)]

You're getting 3:1 all-in. It can't be that bad of a call.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[Moose]

> Many times in tournies I have made a comeback when having very few chips and adopting this waiting strategy and doubling up several times to get back in the game.

Rest assured you got luckier doubling up all those times than you would have been by beating as good as AKs with 52o.

M.

[sevendeuce]

Well thank you to everyone who replied, it seems that I grossly underestimated my chances of winning with the hand. I would have thought I had approx 10% chance of winning rather than 33%, so the call was correct after all.

[rockoon]

I dont think all the issues that should be considered have been brought up in this thread.

If you fold the 52o you have 3000 left in which to place a bet with at least one player (usualy the big blind) and you get to make the selection based on a certain number of free hands. I normally assume 8 handed when doing late-stage tournament calculations. 6 free hands in which to bet your last T3000 with. Whats that worth? If you wish to compare your 3:1 odds you must compare it with the alternative and I dont think anybody has done that here.

I'm not saying folding is right. I'm just saying that nobody seems to have addressed the situation correctly. Weighing only one side of the issue.

Other benefits of folding include delaying your eventual knockout. In those 6 free hands a few players may get knocked out. If you win your next hand you can let another round go by where more people may get knocked out. You may stumble into the money by winning your next two hands. Do you want the first of your next two hands to only have a 33% chance of winning at best? Your EV is not tied directly to the tournament chips.

Having only a 33% chance of surviving a call, I tend to start thinking about the alternatives.

Maybe calling is still correct. I dont have a good way of estimating the value of folding without the payout structure and chip distribution.

The value of folding versus the value of calling.

[sevendeuce]

I'm glad to see someone who is looking at it my way. In fact AKs vs 72o is a 70-30 proposition so I don't lose much ground by waiting for a better hand and being forced to play a worse one than 52o. I always thought that survival in a tourney was a key issue therefore making my all in stand when a 50-50 proposition seems better than when 70-30 underdog even if I am getting value.

[ohkanada]

So the blinds were 1500-3000:

1) Option 1, calling the raise. You have 25-30% chance to win the 14.5k pot. If you lose you are obviously out. If you do win, you now have about 5xBB. Still a short stack but possibly big enough to steal blinds and you could even fold through the blinds ( although I wouldn't recommend it). If you find a hand and double up, you are most likely in average chip position.

2) Option 2, folding. You now have 3000 which is the size of the BB. You have the button so you have 5 or 6 hands to find a hand. You do get to choose your final cards but you have no ability to limit the field. You find a hand and bet and only the BB calls. In this case you may be a favorite to win 7.5k. But now you are forced to go through the blinds within a few hands. Of course you may not find a hand before the blinds so now you go all-in in the BB where you may be back to the 25-30% chance to win 7.5k. Now what you would like to have happen is to find AA/KK and have 3 or 4 callers where you now are a favorite to win 15k or so. But usually you will not find a great hand and will end up being about 33% chance to win 9k.

The other thing you need to know is when are the blinds increasing? Why pick option 2 if the blinds are about to double? Now if you are in the money and you could fold and pickup extra positions then option 2 may be more attractive although option 1 gives you a better shot at 1st.

Ken Poklitar

[whiskeytown]

the important thing to remember is that any two cards are no worse then 3-1 vs any two other cards preflop except an overpair. - many times it's even money or better...

we've already gone over how you should have called (esp. once a third of your chips are in the pot...but given the odds, even more so...)

I sometimes use this play the opposite way...I was once the BB, and had a player go all in on me for double the BB...so it'll cost me one bet to possible win 4 on what I think is a 3-1 longshot (I had like Q9 offsuit..) -

He had A-10, which is less then a 2-1 favorite and I spiked a 9 on the flop to take it down...he was insulted I called but he let himself get short stacked, I was doing fine, it was near the end and I wanted to knock him out, (it was the final table) - and I had the statistical advantage and took it...

I felt better after a good tourney player who was watching that night (didn't play...) looked right at me after I defended my call and said "That's right...you need to call that" - Later reading Tournament Poker and other books would confirm this...Even Tom McEvoy regrets mucking a hand like that one time...

or let's talk stack size...there's something to be said about being able to raise 3-4 times the BB to try to get a muck out of people...with just the BB, you're gambling too much...52o in that situation is the best you could hope for...should have taken it...all you need is one of 6 outs and for him to not hit his...not that far out there..

Actually, in your position, I'd probably have gone all in on the BB...cause that's really a third of your stack preflop right there....

anyways....next time call....esp. heads up vs. a raiser...he's only got an A most likely and you might take him down...when you're short stacked you MUST gamble...

RB

[Hotchile]

If you are one out of the money, and a player with a stack that can't cover blinds is 3 seats away, does this affect the decision to call? What if there are two other stacks like this?

My biggest pet peeve is when a player who has 40x the BB is on the button, folds to a player on the blind with 3BB remaining. Especially when I am short stacked myself.

Larry