AJs with a rough gutshot.

[JoshuaD]

UTG is around 25/13/1, CO was around 25/8/2.5. Both were pretty strong reads.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Hero calls, CO calls, Button calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>.

Flop: (9.40 SB) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, Button calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG 3-bets</font>, Hero calls, CO calls, Button calls.

Turn: (10.70 BB) 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, Button folds, UTG calls, Hero calls.

River: (16.70 BB) A/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero folds...


Anyone play it differently? The flop and turn decisions all had me staring blank for a minute.

[Bob T.]

I think the easiest play, would be to fold preflop to an UTG raise. Even though, the raiser apparently has a pretty wide range of raising hands, a fair number of them are going to be unfavoarable to you, and you aren't closing the action.

On the flop, given that you aren't closing the action, I think both calls are a little iffy, but I might have made them.

After the flop action, I don't think you can call the turn, because you are very likely to get raised here, and putting in two big bets with a gutshot draw is pretty undesirable.

Finally, I think the fold on the river is probably OK, because I don't think that there are enough hands that you would beat that you can justify this call, and you aren't closing the action, so you might face another raise before this is done.

[WillyTrailer]

Preflop discussions aren't fun, but I fold this preflop unelss I have a good read saying this is most likely going to be a big juicy multiway pot.

I with you on the flop with my BD flush draw and the gut shot. I fold the turn though. I scared of getting raised behind and thinking I probably only have 3 outs if I am. I'm not so sure it's such an easy decision though. I think it's close either way. The pot is huge and you have outs to the nuts!

Given that you called you're getting odds to draw to the three outer on the river though.

Tough spot to get stuck in, but I think calling and folding have similar value.

-WT

[JoshuaD]

I cold call like never, but this seemed like a perfect place to cold call. The preflop raiser is raising loose and is weak postflop. It might've been better to 3-bet and make sure I get him HU, now that I think about it, but I don't like folding at all.

[ArturiusX]

13% isnt loose.

[J. Stew]

new here, how do you calculate aggression statistics? Is is from a program or from you?

[JoshuaD]

[ QUOTE ]
13% isnt loose.

[/ QUOTE ]

A 17/13 isn't raising very loose from UTG here, but I think a 25/13 is.

[ QUOTE ]
new here, how do you calculate aggression statistics? Is is from a program or from you?

[/ QUOTE ]

Poker Tracker (http://www.pokertracker.com/)

[aK13]

I'd fold preflop, even with those stats, but if you're going to play, you gotta 3bet and isolate IMO.

Sucks to be sandwiched on every street here, but not much you can do. Against these players, I fold the river too.

[Malachii]

How do you justify that call on the flop? You're getting 10-1 true, but you'll probably have to split the pot if you do hit a ten and you obviously aren't counting your ace as an out.

By my count, that gives you 3.5 outs, getting 10-1 on a call that doesn't close the action. You have to figure that the flop fits in well with people that coldcall a raise behind you. This is an even clearer fold after it gets raised and reraised and then comes back to you... you're now getting 9-1 on what's probably a chop if you hit... what if the cutoff caps?

If you're going to play marginal hands against a preflop raiser, you have to be able to get away from them when they don't flop imho.

[aK13]

[ QUOTE ]
How do you justify that call on the flop? You're getting 10-1 true, but you'll probably have to split the pot if you do hit a ten and you obviously aren't counting your ace as an out.

By my count, that gives you 3.5 outs, getting 10-1 on a call that doesn't close the action. You have to figure that the flop fits in well with people that coldcall a raise behind you. This is an even clearer fold after it gets raised and reraised and then comes back to you... you're now getting 9-1 on what's probably a chop if you hit... what if the cutoff caps?

If you're going to play marginal hands against a preflop raiser, you have to be able to get away from them when they don't flop imho.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're pinning other players on AJ? I think you're reading the hand incorrectly. If the T hits, Hero has a nut straight using 2 of his hole cards.

[Malachii]

Good point. My bad... it's 3am. Assuming you have a 5.5 out draw... I can understand taking a card off. I probably would not with the bad position and dangerous flop... but calling is okay. I definitely fold on turn, however.

[chesspain]

When you plan on coldcalling with AJs/KQs, a very important factor is the number of players in (or anticipated to be in) the pot other than the raiser, and the quality of their play. At least this is how Ed Miller explained this type of situation, in a post he made here at the time his book was released.

Consequently, with only four other players remaining, and with the only read you posted having that player as an sLA-A, I would be folding this. Now, if you knew that the button and blinds were both loose-passive and fishy, I might like the call. But otherwise, I'm outta there...

[crunchy1]

I'm not cold-calling this hand in this spot very often.

In your spot I'm 3-betting most of the time against that Villian (UTG) when I know the remaining players know where the fold button is. If I'm a little closer to Villian I don't mind the cold-call as long as I know others will cold-call behind me.

I think you missed the turn fold when UTG leads again. I think CO's post-flop aggression makes this turn fold a little easier. It's definitely close but, I don't want to put 2+ bets in on the turn and if you hit on the river you're going to have to raise UTG and probably shut-out CO and only gain 1 extra bet from UTG. I would consider calling the turn if the 2 had been a /images/graemlins/diamond.gif.

[chief444]

At first I thought it was clear that you should have gotten out on the flop. But I actually don't think any of your calls were really that bad. Just high variance. Probably close to neutral EV though.

[jba]

[ QUOTE ]
At first I thought it was clear that you should have gotten out on the flop. But I actually don't think any of your calls were really that bad. Just high variance. Probably close to neutral EV though.

[/ QUOTE ]

on the flop and turn, hero paid 3.5bbs to win 13bbs on a gutshot, this has to be EV- doesn't it?

I see what you're saying though -- every call looks justified by pot odds.

I think hero can probably find the fold button after the turn lead. he's getting 11.5:1, but if CO raises you're only getting 14.5:2. it looks like if CO raises even half the time your effective odds make a call here unprofitable.

[chief444]

The final pot is over 18 BB's as is with more action to come so he really paid 3.5 BB's to win closer to 20 BB's here and CO probably doesn't raise the turn half of the time or more. Also, he has the bd flush on the flop. On the flop his equity is probably somewhere between 15-20%.

[jba]

[ QUOTE ]
The final pot is over 18 BB's as is with more action to come so he really paid 3.5 BB's to win closer to 20 BB's here and CO probably doesn't raise the turn half of the time or more. Also, he has the bd flush on the flop. On the flop his equity is probably somewhere between 15-20%.

[/ QUOTE ]

ok, good points.

[Grease]

I fold PF for all the reasons discussed above. I fold the turn because there is a good possibility of it getting raised behind me, which would really suck. Spiking the A hurts, but folding is definitely the right move. No way are you ahead here.

[dealer_toe]

I'm 3 betting PF to try an isolate him if he's bad post flop.

[Emmitt2222]

I fold pf or possibly 3bet. If you are practically never coldcalling you should possibly try it a little more often because it can be quite profitable, I do it possibly a little more than the average TAG, but this is one place I would not. You don't want to be the first to call and its usually better with PP's and suited connectors.

I fold the flop when it comes two back to me because unless I'm doing something wrong you are getting 18.4:2 which isnt enough especially since you don't have good position on the raiser if you do hit, it could even get capped behind you by CO. Since you didn't I'm calling the turn too and folding the river.

[JoshuaD]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
At first I thought it was clear that you should have gotten out on the flop. But I actually don't think any of your calls were really that bad. Just high variance. Probably close to neutral EV though.

[/ QUOTE ]

on the flop and turn, hero paid 3.5bbs to win 13bbs on a gutshot, this has to be EV- doesn't it?

I see what you're saying though -- every call looks justified by pot odds.

I think hero can probably find the fold button after the turn lead. he's getting 11.5:1, but if CO raises you're only getting 14.5:2. it looks like if CO raises even half the time your effective odds make a call here unprofitable.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't forget that on the flop I also had a BD flush draw.

Thanks for the advice guys. I'll be cold-calling even less.