Do you bluff here?

[Moonsugar]

Hand converter busted /images/graemlins/frown.gif

$55. You have semi-tight, aggressive image. Have shown down some big hands but also folded to big bets. Opponent in this hand is a tight player. Blinds 50/100.

UTG 1305
UTG+1 2010
Hero 2975
SB 1870
BB 1840

Hero holds J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif10 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Fold, fold, Hero raises to 300, fold, BB calls. Pot = 650.

Flop 2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif9 /images/graemlins/club.gif7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

BB bets 200. Hero Calls. Pot = 1050.

Turn K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

BB bets 300. Hero Calls. Pot = 1650.

River A /images/graemlins/heart.gif

BB checks. What do you do?

And if you bluff, what % of the time will you bluff and what do you bet?

[durron597]

The BB has 1040 left behind, with a 1650 pot. I think I bet 700 (If I am going to bluff here at all, I'll address that in the next paragraph). That bet is slightly less than half the pot (which looks scary), large enough to fold, and more than half of what Villian has left. That is a psychological block for many people "I don't want to call off half my stack when I'm pretty sure I'm beat". But I've found people are likelier to think allins are bluffs than large bets.

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As far as whether it is correct to bluff here, you don't give enough information here. I've stopped bluffing people if I can only use one adjective to describe them. Let's look at what the action was:

You raised preflop, the BB flatcalled you. You seem semitight, and this opponent is on the tight edge. Lets give him the generous range of A8+, KT+, QJ+, 55+ against a likely blind steal (too wide? too narrow? would he call you with suited connectors?)

On the flop, he donkbets 200. That could be three things: A silly bet to try to take the pot down, a blocking bet to try to see the turn cheaply, or a pot sweetener with a set/two pair. When you call the flop, a tight opponent probably will not think you are laying down on the turn; yet he bets anyway. But maybe he's betting A9 or TT for value? Maybe he's trying to find out if the king hit you?

Honestly, I think he puts you on an ace, maybe A9, maybe Ad Qd, and there's a good shot he's trying to trap you on the river. Really what makes that decision for me is how I've seen this opponent play his monsters if he's had any yet, or how he's played his draws if he's had any yet. If he's had neither, I probably check the river. If I've seen him fire the second barrel on the turn without the goods I use the above logic and bet 700.