Stealing w/J8s Dick Caught in Vice

[DavidC]

Figured that'd get some attention. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

Seriously, though, I'm fairly comfortable with how this played out, but I don't really have much knowledge on stealing or defending. I haven't had to do TOO much of that yet...

I have 45 hands on the guy, no player reads, sorry, but he's vpip 12 and pfr 2.

I really wasn't happy about the king falling on the river, because I figured that the ace was a good card for him to bluff at (sometimes people re-raise aces, sometimes they float them, so it's a reasonable bluff).

How do you guys think I played it?

It will be followed up with results and I'll ask how you guys thought he played it, too.



--



Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">7 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (4.50 SB) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls.

Turn: (3.25 BB) A/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (5.25 BB) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 7.25 BB

[thesharpie]

Preflop nice.

I think you can fold the turn against a 12/2 at this limit..

Edit: If not the turn the river, if he was by some chance bluffing it he probably just hit, although I can understand calling due to teh pot odds.

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
Preflop nice.

I think you can fold the turn against a 12/2 at this limit..

Edit: If not the turn the river, if he was by some chance bluffing it he probably just hit, although I can understand calling due to teh pot odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well... I kinda need player reads to properly conduct a steal attempt to showdown, and unfortunately I don't have that...

That being said ( /images/graemlins/wink.gif ), a steal is a little different than a normal hand, and I don't really have many stats on how this guy conducts himself in a steal due to sample size.

--Dave.

[Losfer]

Man, my dick is constantly caught in this vice. This is exactly how I would play this, but I never feel comfortable doing it. Blind steals are great until they call. I feel like if I make any sort of a hand I need to show it down.

[thesharpie]

Is this your first steal attempt against him? I would assume someone with his stats would have a defend range of mostly high cards, like Ax, Kx, QJ. He's got to fear the ace on the turn, I would rather raise the turn and maybe get him to fold his QJ or weak ace than call it down.

This is assuming you haven't been stealing every orbit and he's playing back, in which case I call down.

[Duerig]

I fold the turn in this small pot.

[Dave G.]

You'd have to consider the likely range of hands that are going to defend here, especially against someone with such a low VPIP. Aces are at the top of the list. The pot is small and you're going to have to pay 2BB to show down a hand that probably just got owned. Fold the turn.

Since you didn't fold the turn, fold the river. I don't think you are good 1 in 6 times here.

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
You'd have to consider the likely range of hands that are going to defend here, especially against someone with such a low VPIP. Aces are at the top of the list. The pot is small and you're going to have to pay 2BB to show down a hand that probably just got owned. Fold the turn.

Since you didn't fold the turn, fold the river. I don't think you are good 1 in 6 times here.

[/ QUOTE ]

If I'm folding, I'm folding the turn. Definitely not the river.

I don't have odds to chase the 5-outer on the turn, so I have to decide right there if I'm showing it down.

--Dave.

[SayGN]

Your steal attempt is a fine one. Your big mistake came on the turn. Calling is the last thing you want to do here. It gives you no information. The pot is small, so folding is still an option. It is probably your best option. That being said, I am not disciplined enough to just give up on this hand. I think I raise the turn. If he 3 bets, it is an obvious fold. If he folds, wonderful. If he just calls, he is probably checking to you on the river. If he calls and leads out on the river, fold it. Either way, it gives you more information about his hand and it won't cost you a single cent more than calling down the turn and river will. It also gives him the opportunity to fold. A turn raise is how I would do things for this hand. Folding isn't out of the question, but simply calling on the turn should be.

[gopnik]

I'd probably fold on the river. Pot is not big enough to call when you are almost certainly beat.

[Sinnister]

Raise the turn check behind him on river, stay the aggressor. If u get bet into on river u should dump. A player with such solid stats could be using ace as a scare card, and keep the pressure on blind defense is crucial.

[gopnik]

I like this line.
I agree, raising the turn and folding to any more aggression is the best play here.

[MrEngenic]

Yupp, you have to call down. I wouldn't raise the turn.

[Sinnister]

[ QUOTE ]
Yupp, you have to call down. No point in raising anywhere.

[/ QUOTE ]

Extremely weak for blind stealing.

[MrEngenic]

[ QUOTE ]
Extremely weak for blind stealing.

[/ QUOTE ]

Elaborate

[nomadtla]

[ QUOTE ]
Your steal attempt is a fine one. Your big mistake came on the turn. Calling is the last thing you want to do here. It gives you no information. The pot is small, so folding is still an option. It is probably your best option. That being said, I am not disciplined enough to just give up on this hand. I think I raise the turn. If he 3 bets, it is an obvious fold. If he folds, wonderful. If he just calls, he is probably checking to you on the river. If he calls and leads out on the river, fold it. Either way, it gives you more information about his hand and it won't cost you a single cent more than calling down the turn and river will. It also gives him the opportunity to fold. A turn raise is how I would do things for this hand. Folding isn't out of the question, but simply calling on the turn should be.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the best line IMO (nice post)

[cfjr2]

I think I would raise the turn and fold to a 3 bet

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
Your steal attempt is a fine one. Your big mistake came on the turn. Calling is the last thing you want to do here. It gives you no information. The pot is small, so folding is still an option. It is probably your best option. That being said, I am not disciplined enough to just give up on this hand. I think I raise the turn. If he 3 bets, it is an obvious fold. If he folds, wonderful. If he just calls, he is probably checking to you on the river. If he calls and leads out on the river, fold it. Either way, it gives you more information about his hand and it won't cost you a single cent more than calling down the turn and river will. It also gives him the opportunity to fold. A turn raise is how I would do things for this hand. Folding isn't out of the question, but simply calling on the turn should be.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm completely baffled by this. The information you get isn't worth the price you pay. The only extra value you get out of raising the turn is getting him to fold a hand like K9, which has three outs against you (and you're glad that he's bluffing into you with only three outs -- and you're hoping he'll keep it up on the river).

For the same price, you see a showdown, you see what he defended with, you find out if he's willing to push back with a weak/moderate hand (medium pocket pair, perhaps?). Why are you so thrilled with the idea of trying to push him off his hand?

[kapw7]

Players with 12/2 stats are the easiest to play. Because there is no difference if they play with their cards hidden or not. That's why you fold the turn. Try again with a better (or worse) hand. When these guys call my steal attempt I know I'm usually beat. (I usually limp my big hands against them).

For the same reason raising the turn is wrong. Unless you've actually seen the guy semi-bluffing before. Even then it's not standard play but you have to do it sometimes so the guy reduces his bluffing and stays predictable as we like him.

[MrEngenic]

[ QUOTE ]
Players with 12/2 stats are the easiest to play

[/ QUOTE ]

Agree. He has only 45 hands though, doesn't count for much.

[gopnik]

The way I think about it is that by raising the turn you lose the same amount when you are behind and might push off a hand that has Q,K or maybe bottom pair in it.

[2+2 wannabe]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Your steal attempt is a fine one. Your big mistake came on the turn. Calling is the last thing you want to do here. It gives you no information. The pot is small, so folding is still an option. It is probably your best option. That being said, I am not disciplined enough to just give up on this hand. I think I raise the turn. If he 3 bets, it is an obvious fold. If he folds, wonderful. If he just calls, he is probably checking to you on the river. If he calls and leads out on the river, fold it. Either way, it gives you more information about his hand and it won't cost you a single cent more than calling down the turn and river will. It also gives him the opportunity to fold. A turn raise is how I would do things for this hand. Folding isn't out of the question, but simply calling on the turn should be.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm completely baffled by this. The information you get isn't worth the price you pay. The only extra value you get out of raising the turn is getting him to fold a hand like K9, which has three outs against you (and you're glad that he's bluffing into you with only three outs -- and you're hoping he'll keep it up on the river).

For the same price, you see a showdown, you see what he defended with, you find out if he's willing to push back with a weak/moderate hand (medium pocket pair, perhaps?). Why are you so thrilled with the idea of trying to push him off his hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

agreed

i don't have ANY clue why we're raising this turn?!? he's not folding anything that beats us here, and everything else he has is way behind us. raising anywhere is poor play imo.

p.s. fold this turn (unless you have a read that villain bluffs aces)

[DavidC]

Hey guys.

I just checked out the pot size:

it starts at 3.25 bb on the turn.

He bets into me. If I raise and he re-raises, that's 8.25 (7.75 after rake) to 1.

I have 2 outs to what's almost definitely the best hand, as well as 3 outs to a hand that beats hands other than aces up.

So, therefore, do I call if he three-bets?

Also, if I do call the turn 3-bet, and he leads into me on a jack river or an 8 river, dare I raise?

--Dave.

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Your steal attempt is a fine one. Your big mistake came on the turn. Calling is the last thing you want to do here. It gives you no information. The pot is small, so folding is still an option. It is probably your best option. That being said, I am not disciplined enough to just give up on this hand. I think I raise the turn. If he 3 bets, it is an obvious fold. If he folds, wonderful. If he just calls, he is probably checking to you on the river. If he calls and leads out on the river, fold it. Either way, it gives you more information about his hand and it won't cost you a single cent more than calling down the turn and river will. It also gives him the opportunity to fold. A turn raise is how I would do things for this hand. Folding isn't out of the question, but simply calling on the turn should be.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm completely baffled by this. The information you get isn't worth the price you pay. The only extra value you get out of raising the turn is getting him to fold a hand like K9, which has three outs against you (and you're glad that he's bluffing into you with only three outs -- and you're hoping he'll keep it up on the river).

For the same price, you see a showdown, you see what he defended with, you find out if he's willing to push back with a weak/moderate hand (medium pocket pair, perhaps?). Why are you so thrilled with the idea of trying to push him off his hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

agreed

i don't have ANY clue why we're raising this turn?!? he's not folding anything that beats us here, and everything else he has is way behind us. raising anywhere is poor play imo.

p.s. fold this turn (unless you have a read that villain bluffs aces)

[/ QUOTE ]

No reads. I am ashamed. /images/graemlins/blush.gif

[DavidC]

How about sometimes raising and sometimes calling down?

Seriously.

Edit: I like the idea of raising now, because it scares the crap out of him, gets a free showdown, and teaches him some respect. Also, the fact that I HAVE SOMETHING right now, when I raise, and he gets to see that I have something, will lend me more credibility when I raise the turn with nothing in the future. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

The reason I'm leaning towards calling down sometimes and raising sometimes is that I don't want to fall into the pattern of calling down with something (letting him bluff off his stack) and raising when I've got nothing.

Sometimes I'll checkraise the flop with something. Sometimes I'll checkraise the flop with nothing.

Sometimes I'll slowplay a pair.
Sometimes I'll slowplay nothing.

This doesn't really help me, because people tend to go to SD if they've put in money on the turn, for some weird reason, unless they're on a total bluff.

Against a better player, though, you could get away with this.

--Dave.

Refutation:

Against really uber-awesome opponents, we do this, kinda. Against regular guys, in our first or second steal of a session where the players will never see us again and if so won't necessarily remember (the better ones are often multitabling and not in the hand so they won't notice), I think we can pick a line and go with it as a standard, most plus EViest line. But if we get to the 15/30++ tables, we need to mix it up a bit. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

--Dave.

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Players with 12/2 stats are the easiest to play

[/ QUOTE ]

Agree. He has only 45 hands though, doesn't count for much.

[/ QUOTE ]

Esp. the pfr portion of those stats.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
The way I think about it is that by raising the turn you lose the same amount when you are behind and might push off a hand that has Q,K or maybe bottom pair in it.

[/ QUOTE ]

1) The pot is not big enough that it's worth protecting in this spot. The pot is 4BB when it's your turn action, so you would be investing *HALF* of the pot to try to buy the pot from these 3-out hands.

2) If villain 3-bets, you're getting about 8.25:1 for a 5-outer on the river, so folding isn't so good.

3) Why are you trying to fold out hands worse than yours that might pay off a river bet, such as bottom pair? You might also be folding out hands that are willing to bet the river as a follow-through to the turn bet.

[gopnik]

yeah, the more I am thinking about it, the more I am agreeing with you. Small pot, nothing to protect, I am just calling.
What if the pot was bigger? Let's say more than 10BB. Would raise be ok?

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
yeah, the more I am thinking about it, the more I am agreeing with you. Small pot, nothing to protect, I am just calling.
What if the pot was bigger? Let's say more than 10BB. Would raise be ok?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's really tough to say because the pot is not going to be that big on a blind-stealing hand.

Any way that I can imagine the pot growing to be that big, you're probably in a situation where you need to catch up and calling is preferred.

But for the sake of argument, let's say that it magically grew to that size with everything else being exactly the same. I'm still inclined to call with a pair of jacks because he's not likely to fold his hand on the turn to the raise (beacuse the pot is now big) and he's still properly folding a hand that has three outs against us.

The board texture is playing a huge role in this. If I had 98s and the board were 964-A, then a raise is better because villain is conceivably drawing to 6 outs against me on his bluff and will incorrectly fold his hand to a raise. With the top pair on the flop being so large, there are fewer ways that I can be outdrawn, so I'm less worried about knocking him out.

[kapw7]

[ QUOTE ]
Your steal attempt is a fine one. Your big mistake came on the turn. Calling is the last thing you want to do here. It gives you no information. The pot is small, so folding is still an option. It is probably your best option. That being said, I am not disciplined enough to just give up on this hand. I think I raise the turn. If he 3 bets, it is an obvious fold. If he folds, wonderful. If he just calls, he is probably checking to you on the river. If he calls and leads out on the river, fold it. Either way, it gives you more information about his hand and it won't cost you a single cent more than calling down the turn and river will. It also gives him the opportunity to fold. A turn raise is how I would do things for this hand. Folding isn't out of the question, but simply calling on the turn should be.

[/ QUOTE ]

Whatever you do don't raise for information. It will be a very expensive and not very useful info. If he calls your bet what better info do you get? If he 3-bets the bad thing is that you have the odds to call. If he bets the river then the pot will be so large that you might have to call again in the rare case he's bluffing. Generally without reads just fold the turn and wait for the next hand.

[@bsolute_luck]

meh...i'd fold the turn. marginal hand + small pot. odd play that he didn't check/raise you though, but also TOP suggests that in small pots, even if this is a semi-bluff bet for the flush draw, the best defense in this spot is to fold.

calling and folding the river is retarded. raising the turn is retarded. so you're either folding or seeing the showdown IMO.

[gopnik]

got you.
Thanks for sharing your thoughts.

[Jakesta]

FOLD THE TURN

[DavidC]

Villain has 33 for the set and "donk bets" the turn.

This is awesome, IMHO.

The ace is a card that I'd like to bluff on if I thought that's how I'm going to win the hand, so him betting out is a great strategy.

Likewise if I have an ace I'm going to raise, so again betting out on this specific card is great.

I'm not so sure about villain's flop call. He can probably get away with raising, calling a re-raise and check-raising the turn, or something like that instead.

But given his flop play, I think his turn play is stellar.

His bet here looks so much like a bluff that a more aggressive opponent would be raising to try to push him off his bluff (I instead called to let him bluff off his stack).

--Dave.

[Icebee]

Classic raise on the scare card. Uncommon at .50/1 though and I'd probably give credit here.

As you state though if you don't fold 3-betting is a good line.