Using a timing tell

[SmileyEH]

Opponent is loose passive over like 12 hands, so doesn't really mean anything. Hand played out pretty quickly, but the villian waited about 15 seconds before checking the river. Usually this is a sign that the player is trying to scare you into checking behind. This could mean opp. has a low pocket pair, but that is unlikely given the preflop action, so AK-AJ or so is probably most likely.

Everybody like?

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (4.75 BB) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+1 calls.

River: (6.75 BB) 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>

-SmileyEH

[rmarotti]

The river bet is not a value bet, and timing tells are usually bullsh[/i]it.

[pandared]

seems fine, didn't really need a timing tell to bet here though, did he have a-k too?

[thesharpie]

Not really. I think your average player is going to fold his AJ and call his low pocket pair anyway. I take the free showdown without a real read.

[rmarotti]

[ QUOTE ]
seems like spewing, didn't really need to bet here

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP

[SmileyEH]

[ QUOTE ]
seems fine, didn't really need a timing tell to bet here though

[/ QUOTE ]

This also crossed my mind.

-SmileyEH

[rmarotti]

this river bet seems really dumb.

[chesspain]

I'm checking behind, regardless of the twelve handed para-read and the faux timing tell. He's never folding a pair, and he's probably folding AQ or worse. Consequently, I don't like putting in a bet just for the off-chance that he will fold half of this pot if he also has AK.

[Moozh]

If he's really trying to scare you in to not betting the river, he probably doesn't have much of a hand. If he doesn't have much of a hand, what makes you think he's going to call with it?

[SmileyEH]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm really confused. I think you're a good player but this river bet seems really dumb.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think we need to go to the preflop and flop action to really see how narrow villian's range of hands is.

-SmileyEH

[pandared]

oops hahaha read that post too fast, didn't really see the flush there...hmm, yea checking seems better then

[rmarotti]

I don't think that action narrows it enough to make this river bet not dumb.

[SmileyEH]

Well preflop, I think his handrange is AK-AT + KQ (unlikely because most players don't raise it preflop) + QQ-99.

All he does through the whole hand is check call. Perhaps TT or JJ might do this, but I only 3betted. Even a passive player will try to put extra bets in with an overpair postflop.

So basically I think his handrange on the river is AK-AJ probably 80% of the time. Throw in my timing tell and he has that range almost always. A bet is correct for different reasons against all those hands obv.

See my thinking now?

-SmileyEH

[Lurkmaster Flex]

River bet is to push him off a chop with his AK. Or get an overcall with AQ-AJ. I'm not sure about the timing tell though. It's close.

[crunchy1]

[ QUOTE ]
Well preflop, I think his handrange is AK-AT + KQ (unlikely because most players don't raise it preflop) + QQ-99.

[/ QUOTE ]
AA and KK should be in that range as well.

[ QUOTE ]
All he does through the whole hand is check call. Perhaps TT or JJ might do this, but I only 3betted. Even a passive player will try to put extra bets in with an overpair postflop.

[/ QUOTE ]
Many passive players are content to simply call down with their big pocket pairs. Haven't you ever heard "aces never win" before? One funny thing is that even though they never win - the losers are still calling down with them because "you just never know". Another funny thing is that, against an overly aggressive player like yourself, they're not that far playing good letting you bluff off your money the whole way.

[ QUOTE ]
So basically I think his handrange on the river is AK-AJ probably 80% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think this is a poor assumption. I think his handrange is much wider than 3 hands 80% of the time by the river. Furthermore, in any range, he's probably only calling with hands that you're behind to.

[ QUOTE ]
Throw in my timing tell and he has that range almost always. A bet is correct for different reasons against all those hands obv.

[/ QUOTE ]
Your timing tell sucks! Your timing tell means nothing. How can you say that it's a tell after 12 hands? IMO, you're simply trying to disguise your poor play under the cover of a "timing tell". It's ridiculous. Talking about timing tells sucks in general - suggesting you have one after 12 hands sucks even worse. I'll bump the thread where I went into detail to explain exactly why timing tells suck.

I don't see how you can expect the long-run EV of a bet here to be positive!?!

[crunchy1]

[ QUOTE ]
River bet is to push him off a chop with his AK. Or get an overcall with AQ-AJ. I'm not sure about the timing tell though. It's close.

[/ QUOTE ]
It's not close - it sucks!

[SmileyEH]

Stop flaming the threads I start. I'm not an overly aggressive player either. Also, this timing tell is not player specific.

-SmileyEH

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
Stop flaming the threads I start. I'm not an overly aggressive player either. Also, this timing tell is not player specific.

-SmileyEH

[/ QUOTE ]

Stop assuming that just because someone disagrees with you it's because they don't like you and are flaming you. Maybe it's because you're wrong. A lot. Also, timing tells suck. There have been several threads about it from some big posters, here in MH and General. Use the search function.

[crunchy1]

[ QUOTE ]
Stop flaming the threads I start.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm not flaming - I'm replying. If you don't want negative criticism of your bad plays then stop posting hands that suck. I don't have anything against you - truely!! But this hand sucks and there are new posters in here that are mistakenly agreeing that your play was good. It's not.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not an overly aggressive player either.

[/ QUOTE ]
Could've fooled me by firing the third barrel into a loose/passive player that raised in EP PF and then check/called you down on the flop/turn.

Also - I seem to remember a certain 2+2 table. Now maybe you don't play that way all the time - but, with some of the hands you post and they way I watched you play at that table my read is: LAG /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[ QUOTE ]
Also, this timing tell is not player specific.

[/ QUOTE ]
Then it sucks even worse. I'm going to bump that thread now.

[SmileyEH]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Stop flaming the threads I start. I'm not an overly aggressive player either. Also, this timing tell is not player specific.

-SmileyEH

[/ QUOTE ]


Stop assuming that just because someone disagrees with you it's because they don't like you and are flaming you. Maybe it's because you're wrong. A lot. Also, timing tells suck. There have been several threads about it from some big posters, here in MH and General. Use the search function.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's based on previous threads.

-SmileyEH

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Stop flaming the threads I start. I'm not an overly aggressive player either. Also, this timing tell is not player specific.

-SmileyEH

[/ QUOTE ]


Stop assuming that just because someone disagrees with you it's because they don't like you and are flaming you. Maybe it's because you're wrong. A lot. Also, timing tells suck. There have been several threads about it from some big posters, here in MH and General. Use the search function.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's based on previous threads.

-SmileyEH

[/ QUOTE ]

Where you were wrong, I'm sure.

[crunchy1]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Stop flaming the threads I start. I'm not an overly aggressive player either. Also, this timing tell is not player specific.
-SmileyEH

[/ QUOTE ]
Stop assuming that just because someone disagrees with you it's because they don't like you and are flaming you. Maybe it's because you're wrong. A lot. Also, timing tells suck. There have been several threads about it from some big posters, here in MH and General. Use the search function.

[/ QUOTE ]
It's most likely because I've disagreed with him several times in the past. I thought those hands sucked too! /images/graemlins/grin.gif

You're correct - I hold nothing against anyone. Anyone who obtains/holds a grudge against someone on a message board for something they said that cannot be fully interpreted with: tone of voice, inflection and non-verbal cues - that they've never met in real life is an idiot - IMO.

[SmileyEH]

The discussion in this thread has faded away. Interestingly enough, I decided to post this hand because it reminded me of a thread I read in mid/high stakes a couple months ago which was basically identical to this hand. Hero ended up betting the river with AK unimproved (this was at 15/30) and was called by AQ unimproved. The consnsus was that it was a pretty clear value bet. I didn't understand the river bet at the time, but it made sense eventually. I'd like to think I would bet this river everytime but the timing tell everyone is loath to make use of made it a clear bet in my mind. The villian called with AJo.

I feel like I somehow cheated today - posting two hands where good things came about from my decisions....jeez

-SmileyEH

[crunchy1]

Can you link to that mid/high thread? I'd like to read it.

[Lurkmaster Flex]

[ QUOTE ]
It's not close - it sucks!

[/ QUOTE ]

ok given the range AK-AQ-AJ-AA-KK-QQ-JJ-TT-99.

31 to 26 that he has unpaired overs that arent /images/graemlins/heart.gif /images/graemlins/heart.gif. That's not including that he is more likely to have folded the turn with his overs than called, or will get called with AK and fold out AQ-AJ and gain nothing. Yea this is gonna be -EV I would guess but there a lot of variables with it not sure how bad it would be.

[SmileyEH]

I have no idea how to find it. Don't remember what was in the title, the poster or anything /images/graemlins/frown.gif

In the hand however, villian raised in MP with AQo, hero 3bet on the button with AKo and the action went check bet call all the way down on an all blanks board.

-SmileyEH

[crunchy1]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It's not close - it sucks!

[/ QUOTE ]
ok given the range AK-AQ-AJ-AA-KK-QQ-JJ-TT-99.
31 to 26 that he has unpaired overs that arent /images/graemlins/heart.gif /images/graemlins/heart.gif. That's not including that he is more likely to have folded the turn with his overs than called, or will get called with AK and fold out AQ-AJ and gain nothing. Yea this is gonna be -EV I would guess but there a lot of variables with it not sure how bad it would be.

[/ QUOTE ]
I like all these arguments. They all seem in agreement with my point that this is not close.

[SmileyEH]

You can't give equal weight to AA-99 because the preflop and postflop action will usually be very different from what transpired.

-SmileyEH

[crunchy1]

[ QUOTE ]
I have no idea how to find it. Don't remember what was in the title, the poster or anything /images/graemlins/frown.gif
In the hand however, villian raised in MP with AQo, hero 3bet on the button with AKo and the action went check bet call all the way down on an all blanks board.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'd just be afraid that you're misapplying concepts here. First a mid/high (20/40 or 30/60) game is not the same as 2/4. Second a whole lot depends on a read of the other player.

You're read was that your villian was loose/passive. IMO, after 12 hands, you need to consider that read to be unknown. Against an unkown who raised in EP and check/called you down you really shouldn't be betting the river with A-high.

[crunchy1]

[ QUOTE ]
You can't give equal weight to AA-99 because the preflop and postflop action will usually be very different from what transpired.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't understand how you think you can determine that after 12 hands?

[SmileyEH]

Well, I guess neither of us will ever be convinced. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

-SmileyEH

[crunchy1]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, I guess neither of us will never be convinced. /images/graemlins/smile.gif
-SmileyEH

[/ QUOTE ]
Double negative?!?

[Bascule]

[ QUOTE ]
Hand played out pretty quickly, but the villian waited about 15 seconds before checking the river. Usually this is a sign that the player is trying to scare you into checking behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the pause is usually a sign that the player has found an interesting website, has just received a phone call, or is being yelled at by his wife to stop spend so much time playing poker. I do agree though, that when the pause is poker-related, it is more likely to mean that he's trying to intimidate you into checking behind, than considering whether to checkraise you with his rivered monster. But I think it's most likely to mean nothing at all.

Like many other posters in this thread, at first I thought the river bet was spewing. Without the preflop raise surely a loose passive player would call with his flopped pair of 6s or fold his T7 missed gutshot. But I like your analysis of his hand range - did you do that at the table, or after the fact? Nice hand.

[Erik W]

Nice valuebet unimproved with AK.

[AliasMrJones]

This looks exactly like how typical Party players would play a medium pocket pair. Especially if they've watched WPT where 77 is a "real hand".

Even loose Party players that will call the flop and turn to "see what happens" aren't going to call a bet on the end with no pair after getting 3-bet PF and bet the whole way IMHO.

I think opponent will call with a pocket pair, raise if he just caught the flush and fold when behind so I don't see how you're making money on this.

[rmarotti]

[ QUOTE ]
Nice valuebet unimproved with AK.

[/ QUOTE ]

No.

[Bascule]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Nice valuebet unimproved with AK.

[/ QUOTE ]

No.

[/ QUOTE ]

You've said this four times now, with minimal reasoning each time. Once was enough.

[CallMeIshmael]

IMO, the river is not as obviously a check as people are saying.

It is very possibly +EV. I think, before anyone comes out and says its DEAD wrong, we need to give some hand ranges, and how often we are called here by AJ/AQ.

[WillyTrailer]

Are you expecting to be CALLED by a worse hand?

-WT

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
Are you expecting to be CALLED by a worse hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sometimes, yes.

What you have to do, is determine the frequency at which an unknown has: [range of hands], then determine the frequency at which AK folds, AQ/AJ calls, and how often he has these hands. Then, do the same for the hands that hero beats.


(FWIW, I remember a hand similar to the one to which he is referring in MHS)

[marching_on_together]

It not just about what hand we put villian on but also what hand he puts hero on. Most people at this level respect 3-bets pre-flop taking them as a sign for a big-hand, they are not expecting hero to be 3-betting here with a non PP that doesn't contain an ace with a high kicker. If villian has AJ he's got to think hero was 3-betting loose to call this river bet, in my oppinion too often villian will come to the conclusion they are behind hero's hand and fold AJ, AQ here. You will fold out AK but not enough to make this +ve.

[marching_on_together]

Imagine you got to the same point with A10, do you bet it?

[WillyTrailer]

I understand that some players are absolutely terrible and will call down with Ace high all the time, but unless we have a read as this player being of this super-duper bad type then there's no way we're getting called by a worse hand.

I'd say more often than not that this player is going to fold the river if he has Ace high and call with his Pocket Pairs which he wasn't betting because he was afraid of being against a bigger pocket pair. And he'll surely call/raise if he made a flush.

-WT

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
It not just about what hand we put villian on but also what hand he puts hero on. Most people at this level respect 3-bets pre-flop taking them as a sign for a big-hand, they are not expecting hero to be 3-betting here with a non PP that doesn't contain an ace with a high kicker. If villian has AJ he's got to think hero was 3-betting loose to call this river bet, in my oppinion too often villian will come to the conclusion they are behind hero's hand and fold AJ, AQ here. You will fold out AK but not enough to make this +ve.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well... here's the thing: you are giving them WAY too much credit.

Obviously, results orientated thinking isnt great, but, in this case, the results are important: he called with AJo.

So, you cant say: they will see what hero did, and will fold AJ, because, some of the time, they wont.


IS that some of the time a big enough number? I dont know.

[marching_on_together]

I was not stating they never call clearly that would be rubbish. However I am saying in my opinion you won't get called by worse hands here enough to make betting profitable.

There are bad players but even bad players make correct decisions, and this is not one of the hardest poker decisions villain is faced with when you take the assumption (which I feel is true) that the average player takes a 3-bet pre-flop to be a premier hand.

[marching_on_together]

The limit this is being played at is an important consideration because the average player at 2-4 has a different range of hands here and will often play them in a different fashion post flop than compared to the average 20-40er in a similar situation.

I could see more of an argument for this river bet at higher limits.

[Guruman]

FWIW, this would be the perfect time for the villain to go for a river check-raise bluff. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[SmileyEH]

[ QUOTE ]
Imagine you got to the same point with A10, do you bet it?

[/ QUOTE ]

No. If you understand why I bet AK, you should understand why I won't bet AT. Getting called by worse hands is the primary purpose of the bet.

-SmileyEH

[jrbick]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Imagine you got to the same point with A10, do you bet it?

[/ QUOTE ]

No. If you understand why I bet AK, you should understand why I won't bet AT. Getting called by worse hands is the primary purpose of the bet.

-SmileyEH

[/ QUOTE ]

How often is a worse hand EVER calling here?

If you use that "timing tell" in a pot w/ me, it's most likely because my internet is delayed. (Leave us slow-pokes at the table alone!! It's not our fault until we can afford to pay for Cable iNet!!)

[SmileyEH]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Imagine you got to the same point with A10, do you bet it?

[/ QUOTE ]

No. If you understand why I bet AK, you should understand why I won't bet AT. Getting called by worse hands is the primary purpose of the bet.

-SmileyEH

[/ QUOTE ]

How often is a worse hand EVER calling here?

If you use that "timing tell" in a pot w/ me, it's most likely because my internet is delayed. (Leave us slow-pokes at the table alone!! It's not our fault until we can afford to pay for Cable iNet!!)

[/ QUOTE ]

This thread is dead.

-SmileyEH

[SmileyGEY]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Imagine you got to the same point with A10, do you bet it?

[/ QUOTE ]

No. If you understand why I bet AK, you should understand why I won't bet AT. Getting called by worse hands is the primary purpose of the bet.

-SmileyEH

[/ QUOTE ]

How often is a worse hand EVER calling here?

If you use that "timing tell" in a pot w/ me, it's most likely because my internet is delayed. (Leave us slow-pokes at the table alone!! It's not our fault until we can afford to pay for Cable iNet!!)

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm a stupid moron with an ugly face and a big butt and my butt smells, and...I like to kiss my own butt.

-SmileyEH

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP

-SmileyGEY