Misunderstanding pot equity

[Tapin]

I won this hand, after misplaying it pretty horribly.

MP1 was a reasonably solid player (35 hands: 21/6/2.00); MP2 was terrible (35 hands: 82/13/0.64).

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 max, 9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif. UTG posts a blind of $1.
UTG (poster) checks, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, SB calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, UTG folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, SB calls.

Flop: (13 SB) J/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, MP2 calls, SB folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 caps</font>, MP2 calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (12.50 BB) A/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

River: (21.50 BB) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

Final Pot: 24.50 BB

The reason I'm posting this hand is to be ridiculed for my terrible grasp of pot equity. After MP1's raise/call preflop, I assumed he had a very good pocket pair and was willing to give me credit (I'd had a pretty tight table image to that point), so I put him on JJ or TT. MP2 played a2c. So when MP1 raised me on the flop, I assume he'd tripped his jacks (hey, I was pretty close with my read...) but figured that since MP2 was likely to call down with anything (71% WTSD, 35% W$SD) I was right to 3-bet it and hope to hit my 3.5-outter.

After running the hand through PokerStove, though, I was only 10% to win the hand against the JJ that I expected + a2c -- and a2c was 7.5% to win the hand!

Because I obviously need remedial assistance on the topic, can someone tell me if I'm right in thinking that I needed to be at least a 34% chance to win the hand to 3-bet the flop?

[UATrewqaz]

It's a pretty simple concept really. If your % chance of winning the pot is greater than how much you must invest into it, then you should try to grow the pot as big as possible.

Example:

Say you get AK suited in a 10 handed game and you are on the button. Hypothetically let's say EVERYONE limps around to you, you should raise. Why? The odds AK taking down a field of 9 are not spectacular, but still is most likely best of everyone at the table, you may have say, a 30% chance of winning, but you are only contributing 10% of the pot. Basically you are forcing the idiots who limped in with crap who have almost no chance to sweeten the pot for you.

That's the concept in a nutshell. It basically makes the times you win the pot worth it because the pot is mucho bigger.

[aK13]

Here's another example of equity. Say you have A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif on button against BB, MP1 and CO, flop comes 4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif K /images/graemlins/club.gif , and BB bets, MP1 calls, CO calls -- you should raise, mainly for equity/expected value. If we only consider your flush draw, you are 35% likely to hit another diamond by the river, thus, if you raise, you risk 1SB to win .35 * 4SB = 1.3 SB.

With that said, I'd check/raise the turn and cap it if 3bet, and probably cap any river but that one (I'd probably check/call in this case). Preflop and flop are totally standard.

[Eeegah]

Speaking of value bets, here's an interesting question I spent some time working on earlier today: is it ever right to value bet overcards on the river? If not, what's the lowest thing you could possibly value bet? Assume you're heads up against the ultimate calling station--never bets, never raises, never folds.

I'll post what I worked out in the morning.

[handsome]

I play it almost the same (another way you could have played this was to check-raise the turn).

[Joel_Fish]

I think you are giving him too much credit for those jacks. He might have a lot of other hands that would make his flop raise pretty standard... KT, AJ, AQ, AK, KQ, QJ, KJ QQ, JJ, TT, T9 etc (some of these may need to be suited for him to raise preflop with) so your 3-bet was appropriate. When he caps the flop, I would put him on at least two pair or a big draw. When you consider the number of hands that he could have that you either beat or can draw out on, your flop play becomes EV+.

[jrz1972]

I don't think you misplayed this hand at all, and I definitely dont think you misplayed it "horribly." Don't be so results-oriented.

[afk]

I think you gave MP1 a range that was way too narrow. Why limit him to jacks? Yeah, he might have TT, maybe 99, what about KQ or AQ? AJs?

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
Speaking of value bets, here's an interesting question I spent some time working on earlier today: is it ever right to value bet overcards on the river? If not, what's the lowest thing you could possibly value bet? Assume you're heads up against the ultimate calling station--never bets, never raises, never folds.

I'll post what I worked out in the morning.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. I'm holding A-anything (not 732) with a rainbow board of 33372 against your ultimate calling station. Pokerstove puts my hand at 61% equity, so any bet is for value.

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think you misplayed this hand at all, and I definitely dont think you misplayed it "horribly." Don't be so results-oriented.

[/ QUOTE ]

OP won the hand.

But, I agree with jrz. You played it fine...maybe for the wrong reasons, but that's a different subject.

[Tapin]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you gave MP1 a range that was way too narrow. Why limit him to jacks? Yeah, he might have TT, maybe 99, what about KQ or AQ? AJs?

[/ QUOTE ]
You're right, it was just a feeling I'd had after watching the guy for a half-hour. As soon as he raised preflop, I said to myself "If he caps, I've gotta watch out for a K or Q on the flop.. if he calls my reraise preflop, I'll have to watch out for a J or T. Otherwise, I can go to town." And then I went against that, getting into a war when one of the cards I was "sure" (overly sure, at that) made him trips fell.

As it turns out, my read was slightly off -- he had QQ, so he hit trips but it was a better pp than I thought. MP2 had T4o, a suitably "any two cards" holding.

I didn't check-raise the turn because I "knew" MP1 would reraise me and MP2 would call, so there was no need for deception. If MP2 raised there I had to give him credit for something like KT, since his aggression was microscopic. I think a check-raise on the river might've netted another two bets, but with the four-straight on the board MP1 might've let it check through.

Thanks for the comments, folks. I was afraid I fell in love with my overpair and got lucky; it sounds like it wasn't as bad a play as I thought to be so aggressive on the flop.

[Fantam]

[ QUOTE ]
can someone tell me if I'm right in thinking that I needed to be at least a 34% chance to win the hand to 3-bet the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

Betting/raising a pot when you have a draw, depends upon comparing the chance of making your "nut" hand to the number of players remaining in the pot.

So if you have 2 players remaining in the pot and they are going to call your bet/raise, you are contributing 1 third of any additional bets.

That means that your chances of winning the hand should be better than 33% to give yourself a pot equity edge, to justify betting/raising.

In your hand, I think you were correct to 3-bet the flop, because I put MP1 on a wider range of hands than you did. I think he could reasonably have had AA-99,AK,AQ,AJ,KQ,AT(s),KJ(s) or QJ(s), when he raised PF.

When he raised the flop, I would have estimated his range of possible hands to include: AA-JJ,AQ,KQ and QJ(s). You were still ahead of a lot of these combinations, so I think your flop 3-bet was justified.

[TomBrooks]

Hi Tapin,

PREFACE: I think it's preferable for you not to tell us the results of the hand up front so we can better put ourselves in the same situation and frame of mind as if we were playing the hand as it occured.

PRE-FLOP I think your assumption that MP1's raise/call preflop means he had a very good pocket pair and they were either TT or JJ is too narrow. Although he only has a 6VPIP, with only 35 hands I wouldn't rule out that he could be a 9% PFR'r who is just running a little cold. So I wouldn't rule out that he could have AQs, AJs, ATs, AQ, KQs or 99. He could certainly have AK. And he could have AA, KK or QQ also. Not everyone caps preflop with those.

FLOP: Anyway, I like your 3-bet, partly for value and partly for information. His cap makes me think I'm likely behind here though

TURN: Bet and 3-bet with trips looks good to me. He likely doesn't have KT or T9 for the straight.

RIVER: Bet looks good to me. His prior action doesn't look like KK so he likely didn't make the straight.

[Tapin]

Thanks for the analysis.

[ QUOTE ]
PREFACE: I think it's preferable for you not to tell us the results of the hand up front so we can better put ourselves in the same situation and frame of mind as if we were playing the hand as it occured.

[/ QUOTE ]
Well, I won't do it again, but I was afraid it was going to look like a bad beat post without mentioning explicitly that it really wasn't a bad beat post, it was a "beat me up for my bad play" post. And then it turned out not being that either.

I get the impression, given the vast majority of the replies, that if the turn is a blank I need to go into call-down mode (bet/call check/call or check/call check/call), possibly with extra credit for leading the blank turn and folding to MP1's raise. But prior to that it wasn't as terrible as I thought, I just was in a far too weak-tight headspace while playing the hand.

It's somewhat disconcerting to go against your gut (first problem) and find out later that you accidentally made the right move (second and bigger problem).

(Late edit: I just realized I nearly unintentionally paraphrased The Man, while referencing a $1/$2 game. My sincerest apologies /images/graemlins/wink.gif)

[silkyslim]

[ QUOTE ]
After MP1's raise/call preflop, I assumed he had a very good pocket pair

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is being to specific. I'd put him on any raising hand, the 3-bet call pf shows weakness or whatever. When to be afraid, when he caps on the flop. but i think 3 betting this is fine. then go into calldown mode to see a showdown, unless you hit an A. I personally like the way this was played.