Do you make this river call?

[SomethingClever]

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP calls, CO calls, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB checks.

Flop: (4.40 SB) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, MP checks, CO checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB folds, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises</font>, CO folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.20 BB) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (6.20 BB) T/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 8.20 BB

[billyjex]

i say yes. you could see a lone 8 or 7 enough here to make it profitable.

[DMBFan23]

I voted yes. he might have two pair, but he might have an 8. I think it's a call

[imported_wingman]

all day.

[Fabian]

I assume we're voting about calling or raising? Folding is complete insanity, nothing less.

I raise.

[ALL1N]

How can you not 3-bet the flop?

[SomethingClever]

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How can you not 3-bet the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

I wanna raise the turn or river when I hit.

[mperich]

Oops I voted yes. I meant no; raise.

-Mike

[ALL1N]

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[ QUOTE ]
How can you not 3-bet the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

I wanna raise the turn or river when I hit.

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What happened?? /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[Alobar]

call the river?? I would have folded PF so I dont have such concerns /images/graemlins/smile.gif

I 3 bet the flop

Im def calling the river. I might even raise the river, depends on if I have a read or no.

[droolie]

bumpingthatannoyingthreadoffthefrontpage....

[SomethingClever]

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How can you not 3-bet the flop?

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I wanna raise the turn or river when I hit.

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What happened?? /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

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When I hit a straight, dood.

[aslowjoe]

Fold pre flop

[StellarWind]

I virtually never play T9o in this situation.

You could 3-bet the flop but I think your actual call is better without a read. As you say you will want him to bet into you if you hit your hand. The other problem is he may have 87 or a set. Then you get capped heads up with only eight dirty outs.

Raising the river is possible. But without a read I would settle for calling. Folding an overcard pair to the flop is a joke.

[afk]

[ QUOTE ]
I virtually never play T9o in this situation.

You could 3-bet the flop but I think your actual call is better without a read. As you say you will want him to bet into you if you hit your hand. The other problem is he may have 87 or a set. Then you get capped heads up with only eight dirty outs.

Raising the river is possible. But without a read I would settle for calling. Folding an overcard pair to the flop is a joke.

[/ QUOTE ]

I completely agree with stellar. Sorry for not adding much but I went to reply and saw that he had my thoughts already down.

[SomethingClever]

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I virtually never play T9o in this situation.


[/ QUOTE ]

My vpip on the button is like 20, so I'm trying to loosen up a bit after limpers. This isn't a *horrible* limp, is it?

[DMBFan23]

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I virtually never play T9o in this situation.


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My vpip on the button is like 20, so I'm trying to loosen up a bit after limpers. This isn't a *horrible* limp, is it?

[/ QUOTE ]

JTo is automatic for me, T9o is probably looser than some people play, but I usually limp it against crappy limpers

[StellarWind]

No it's not horrible. But I don't like it and the situation occurs all the time.

I consider middle offsuit connectors (JT and down) to be the most overrated starting hands in limit hold'em. I also believe that most players underestimate the big dropoff between JT and T9 (suited or not).

Serious question: if someone forced you to limp T9o on the button with passive blinds but gave you a choice of how many limpers, what would you ask for? Lots so you could draw for the straight or just one so you could try for the pair? That I really don't know the answer to this question sums up my doubts about this hand.

[Jeff W]

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Serious question: if someone forced you to limp T9o on the button with passive blinds but gave you a choice of how many limpers, what would you ask for? That I really don't know the answer to this question sums up my doubts about this hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

1 limper. Except with small(22-66) and large(AA-KK) pocket pairs, I usually want as few opponents as possible. Generally the value of having an increased equity share of the blinds is worth the lowered implied odds from having fewer opponents.

[tizim]

[ QUOTE ]
As you say you will want him to bet into you if you hit your hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can someone help me do the math to figure out how much this is worth compared to successfully getting a free card? I've always thought the added implied odds of keeping your opponent in the lead were almost worthless, but I tried doing some math in my head, and it seems to be worth ~.4 BB here, which is way more than I expected. Then again, I suck at calculating EV, so I'm not that sure.

[Alobar]

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Serious question: if someone forced you to limp T9o on the button with passive blinds but gave you a choice of how many limpers, what would you ask for? That I really don't know the answer to this question sums up my doubts about this hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

1 limper. Except with small(22-66) and large(AA-KK) pocket pairs, I usually want as few opponents as possible. Generally the value of having an increased equity share of the blinds is worth the lowered implied odds from having fewer opponents.

[/ QUOTE ]

what are you basing this on?

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
Can someone help me do the math to figure out how much this is worth compared to successfully getting a free card? I've always thought the added implied odds of keeping your opponent in the lead were almost worthless, but I tried doing some math in my head, and it seems to be worth ~.4 BB here, which is way more than I expected. Then again, I suck at calculating EV, so I'm not that sure.

[/ QUOTE ]
Assume an idealized situation where the free card play always works exactly as intended.

1. If you raise the flop and he will call and check the turn and you check behind.

2. If you call the flop and he will bet the turn and you call.

3. The winner of the hand is determined solely by your success in making your draw. You will pursue this draw to the river and then discard your hand if you miss.

4. He will call down your bets or raises after you make your hand.

5. If you hit on the river you can get him for two bets no matter what happened on the flop and turn. He will either keep betting or he will bet into the free card. Either way you raise.

Understand that?

Then the free card play is a blind decision on the flop to reduce the total action on the hand by 0.5 BB. If you improve on the turn after trying for a free card you will get 2 BB combined flop and turn action versus 2.5 BB for calling the flop and raising the turn. If you miss the draw the free card play saves you 0.5 BB. Either way the free card play is 0.5 BB less for each side.

If your flop equity is 40% the free card play saves you 0.5 BB - (40% * 2 * 0.5 BB) = 0.1 BB. If you have 50% pot equity the free card play is breakeven. If your draw is stronger than 50% the free card play is a money loser.

This computation includes the value of the free card when you want it and the value of being able to raise when you want that into a single formula. The free card play adds the most EV when your draw is weak but good enough to justify taking two cards even if you cannot get a free card.

In real life the assumptions given above can fail in many ways and most of them do not favor the free card play. The most obvious problem is that he may 3-bet and keep going. Now you have invested an extra BB while you are behind. A stop-n-go is similar in effect but only costs an extra 0.5 BB of extra action. A third version is the weak opponent who was always giving a free card. Once again your flop raise is extra action with the worse hand for no reason. This last event is underrecognized IMO. It never occurs to some players that they cleverly paid half price for something that was about to be free.

Really bad things happen when Villain identifies your draw *because* you used the free card play. Now in addition to possibly 3-betting the flop while he is ahead, he may bet the turn only when you miss. The word "because" is important. It isn't as bad a mistake if (e.g.) he intended to check the flush card regardless of what you did on the flop.

The Villain figuring out is an even greater risk on the river. After you take the free card he may avoid the river bet-call in favor of bet-folding or checkcalling when he sees your card hit.

The moral here is that the free card play works best against loose/passive robotic morons. In a typical 5/10 6-max game it is dangerous against most opponents unless you have something else going for you such as fold equity or pressure against a third player. It also works better when your draw is not expected at all or not the obvious draw.

[SomethingClever]

Wow! Very nice post. Thank you.

[StellarWind]

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1 limper. Except with small(22-66) and large(AA-KK) pocket pairs, I usually want as few opponents as possible. Generally the value of having an increased equity share of the blinds is worth the lowered implied odds from having fewer opponents.

[/ QUOTE ]
You realize that you have just discarded universally accepted wisdom that weak suited hands do better with more limpers?

My question was where T9o fits into the equation. Should it be viewed as a worse version of KTo (mostly makes mediocre pairs, the fewer limpers the better) or a worse version of T9s (big hand potential favors lots of limpers).

My personal feeling is a little of each. It doesn't do anything well enough to play right against any number of limpers and should be avoided unless conditions are exceptionally favorable.

[J.R.]

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If your flop equity is 40% the free card play saves you 0.5 BB - (40% * 2 * 0.5 BB) = 0.1 BB. If you have 50% pot equity the free card play is breakeven. If your draw is stronger than 50% the free card play is a money loser.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this would be right if flop equity = chance of improving on the next street and the formula was reworked to be something like: (0.5 BB)(.6) - (.4)(.5 BB) = x.

why do you have the "2" in your equation?


[ QUOTE ]
Then the free card play is a blind decision on the flop to reduce the total action on the hand by 0.5 BB. If you improve on the turn after trying for a free card you will get 2 BB combined flop and turn action versus 2.5 BB for calling the flop and raising the turn. If you miss the draw the free card play saves you 0.5 BB. Either way the free card play is 0.5 BB less for each side.

[/ QUOTE ]

true, but in hold'em you're never a favorite to have the best hand on the turn when holding a draw on the flop, so one result is far more common than the other. And your equity is a lot worse when you miss and a big bet goes in on the turn than when 1 BB goes in on the flop and you have 2 streets to complete your draw.

edited cause i am dumb

[StellarWind]

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I think this would be right if flop equity = chance of improving on the next street

[/ QUOTE ]
My underlying idea is that regardless of what card turns, the free card play causes the final pot to be 1 BB smaller than straight up play would make it. When you miss the turn you save money on your draw. When you hit the turn you fail to collect the maximum. Either way the pot is smaller and it will stay smaller regardless of what happens on the river.

That extra bet will be there for you if you win the pot, regardless of when you hit. Your free card play profit is the 0.5 BB you avoided putting in the pot, less your 40% equity share in your 0.5 BB and your 40% equity share in his 0.5 BB. The "2" represents your 0.5 BB plus his 0.5 BB.

This formula is even correct when some of your pot equity is due to backdoor draws, given the assumption that your regular draws force you to see all the cards.

[sthief09]

no I don't make the river call. I raise

[sthief09]

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How can you not 3-bet the flop?

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I wanna raise the turn or river when I hit.

[/ QUOTE ]

What happened?? /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

When I hit a straight, dood.

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pair is good enough most of the time

[joker122]

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no I don't make the river call. I raise

[/ QUOTE ]

that sound really good...i'd never have the balls to do it though.

[Jeff W]

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that sound really good...i'd never have the balls to do it though.

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Wow, really? Change the turn Q to a 3. Do you still call instead of raising? I don't think the Q changes much. I raise in both cases.

[SomethingClever]

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that sound really good...i'd never have the balls to do it though.

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Wow, really? Change the turn Q to a 3. Do you still call instead of raising? I don't think the Q changes much. I raise in both cases.

[/ QUOTE ]

Haha, not to be results oriented, but the genius I was playing against here had Q3.

[StellarWind]

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Wow, really? Change the turn Q to a 3. Do you still call instead of raising? I don't think the Q changes much. I raise in both cases.

[/ QUOTE ]
Easy raise with top pair.

The queen is extremely important. First it could beat you. More importantly it looks really scary to unknown Villain. With QT arriving on the big streets, both the odds of his betting an unimproved eight (or less) and the chance of him paying off the raise plunge.

Just remember how many 2+2s fail to make this river bet until we beat it into them. This is a random player.

[Piz0wn0reD!!!!!!]

you have to call this river. why would you bother limping at all? mid-low suited and unsuited connectors lose value in a short handed game. Raise or fold it preflop in an unraised pot.