EV calculation. I have to call this right?

[HoldingFolding]

Super Tuesday 100 left 80 get paid. Have been with opponent for about 30 hands, I've stolen about once an orbit, raising all in when there were any limpers. Previous hand I doubled up reraising all in with JJ vs 77. Opponent has only played one hand 3BB raise from ep that took down the blinds.

I put him on any pair 66-AA, AK and possibly semi-bluff with something like JTs (if he has me down as stealing).

Is this the way to calculate this? Pokerstove gives me a 38% chance of winning: 0.38 * 11232 = 4268 which is greater than the 3932 I'd have if I folded?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG+1 (t6285)
UTG+2 (t5121)
MP1 (t16550)
MP2 (t4075)
MP3 (t6878)
Hero (t4932)
Button (t10730)
SB (t2712)
BB (t2730)
UTG (t11091)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">6 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t1000</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t5700</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero ????

[11t]

Yes, this is a call but just save yourself the trouble and give yourself some more fold equity by just pushing preflop man.

[Lloyd]

Yes, it's a call and I'm not sure that I'd push. I think you played it correctly.

One point of clarifiction - the number from poker stove is your share of equity in the pot. It's not technically the % of time you'll win although people often use it as such. It takes into consideration ties, for example. Also, I'm not sure where you came up with your 11k number - I think it exceeds the pot.

[HoldingFolding]

I'm not pushing here, I have over 10x BBs and if I get 2 all ins after me I'm going to fold. Also if someone goes all in I want to make a decision based on the information I have on that opponent. If I get called, I comfortable playing this post flop.

[HoldingFolding]

You are correct Lloyd, should be 10464

0.38 * 10464 = 3976 which makes it wafer thin. However my last few (pseudo-successful) MTTs I've limped ITM, so I was prepared to play this hand even if it was slightly -EV if it meant I had a stack to wield for the bubble.

BTW: what is the correct way to make the calculation using pokerstove?

[kuro]

You're getting 1:1.66 pot odds and you've got equity of .38 vs. villain's .62 which means you're a 1:1.63 dog so it's pretty break even chip ev wise between folding or calling.

Personally, I'd have just open pushed to start with in this situation. I think you can make an arguments for folding and finding a better spot or calling and taking essentially a flip.

[Lloyd]

You're using Poker Stove correctly. It's just a slight clarification that the first % it gives is not the % of time you'll win, it's your equity % which takes into consideration ties.