Confused in Scugog

[Diplomat]

Live 20-40. Somehow I got Gamblor to drive us to the casino for some live action. I had almost forgotten what chips feel like. Anyway, so-so 20-40 game with too many tight-boring types and a couple of tricksters for flavour. 11-handed.

Thinking but tilting posts in the CO. He's probably played over 200 hours with me and is smart enough to remember how loose-whacky I play.

Anyway folded to him who checks. I raise on the button with ATo. Both blinds call. Both blinds hate me and would call here out of spite.*

Pretty standard stuff here. It would be pretty odd for the CO to check any playable hand here after it was folded to him, so I'd love to get HU or steal it all. And AT isn't bad from that spot.

Flop: A/images/graemlins/club.gif6/images/graemlins/heart.gif8/images/graemlins/heart.gif. Checked to me and I bet. The small blind calls. The big blind folds. The CO checkraises. I three-bet. The small blind calls two more. The CO caps. I call, the small blind calls.

Where the crap did that come from? My bet is obvious, the small blind's first call is whatever, but the CO checkraise scares me a bit. I doublt he'd check any ace pre-flop, so I discounted that pretty quickly. He's got a tendancy to pump some hands in an effort to get my off something because he knows I'll fold tens or something similar. Let's go for an infomation three-bet.

Then the small blind calls two cold. Ok. 75, flushdraw, or a monster. I put monster as the least likely as he'd three-bet me pre-flop with everything but 68 here. Ok, draw.)

The CO caps. Hmm. Ok now I begin to seriously consider that he has either 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif7/images/graemlins/heart.gif or 68. I'm calling, but trying to spike a non-heart ten or ace.

Turn: Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. SB checks. CO thinks for a couple seconds then checks. I rub my head and check.

Ok. That was odd. I really felt that the CO was trying to checkraise the turn here, punishing the small blind to draw. I loathe the idea of giving a free card, but not as much as I loathe getting raised with only a few outs. I plan to fold to most river bets if a scare card comes.

River: 6/images/graemlins/club.gif Checked to me again. I bet. The small blind thinks for a few seconds and calls. The button thinks for a good five seconds and calls.

Results to follow. Comments welcome.

-Diplomat

*Earlier that night the small blind tried to shoot an angle on Gamblor, myself and another player when the feeder game broke. After that, he tried to shoot an angle to get his river bet back after I four-bet his aces on the river after making a runner-runner straight. I had the floor make him put the bet in. He was raging mad. The big blind is his buddy and hates me by association.

[PokerPrince]

The turn check-through makes me wanna vomit in my mouth. Anyways, my guess is you chop the pot with the SB.

PokerPrince

[Gamblor]

we semiargued about this hand, especially the turn check, for a solid 1/2 hour on the way home, and i finally came up with a coherent argument against a turn check: If you're behind and you bet, and if you get check-raised, can you find a fold here?

I don't think he's capable of checkraising worse Aces on the turn. Capping the flop is one thing, but on expensive streets players in that game are very tight.

[RaMz123]

I bet the turn and fold to any raise. Cant stand to give a free card if Im ahead, if anyone raises AT is probably way behind. Probably check behind most rivers.

[elysium]

hi diplomat

it's not a good idea to raise pre-flop here. the problem with raising is that only similar hands will call the raise, but with the poster in there, your raise has little chance of folding everyone out. additionally, the raise tends to muddy the water and interfere with your read in the later rounds.

you're not thinking again diplomat. you're plunging ahead again trying to bully your hand into victory instead of thinking it to victory. you've also been neglecting handreading.

diplomat, i can't kick you in the ast right now. i've got contractors running all over the place here, and yuck, i'm fat, and malaisy right now. i'll kick you around a little tommorow.

feelers diplomat. put on your feelers.

bye for now.

[haakee]

I'd say it'd be pretty hard to lay this down to a turn check-raise because the most likely holding for this guy is 86 once he does check-raise the turn. Remember, DcifrThs has trips/two-pair outs (some of which may not be clean if the other guy is on a flush draw) in a HUGE pot (14BB? if the blind calls on the turn and CO check-raises).

[elindauer]

You read your opponents on the flop as both holding either big hands or draws, with draws being most likely. Then the turn is a blank and they both check. At this point, your read of DRAW should be confirmed, and you should bet. I don't see how you can possibly check the turn given your thought process. Bet the turn. If you are check-raised, call, fold the river only if it's a very bad card for the draws you think you are up against. Most blank rivers you're making a crying call, but the pot is too big to fold for 1 bet against a player that is somewhat on tilt.

On the river, your value bet is very thin. After all, it looks like they both had draws and missed. You will win often when you bet and they both fold, but how often will you win when you actually get called? About the only hand they can hold that you beat and they will call with is a suited Qh and Axh. Yeah, they might have those hands, but AJ is also in the picture.

Hmmm... I was going to say that I think checking is better, but in light of the number of weak suited hands that can be out which you beat and may call, combined with the huge weakness shown when they both check the turn and river, combined with the fact that nobody decided to bluff at the river with a missed draw (making them a bit less likely and weak made hand a bit more likely), I like your river bet.

Good luck.
Eric

[joes28]

[ QUOTE ]
it's not a good idea to raise pre-flop here. the problem with raising is that only similar hands will call the raise, but with the poster in there, your raise has little chance of folding everyone out. additionally, the raise tends to muddy the water and interfere with your read in the later rounds.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really dont understand this. I think you have to figure that your hand is best here, so you should raise. Also, there is a chance that everyone will fold, though not likely, but i see it a lot in 30/60 on party. Only similar hands will call? I dont know about that, I could see the SB three betting A8s+ ,A9o+, 33+, KQ, and maybe even KJ, and I think that the CO would have raised any of these hands preflop. When the small blind just calls im thinking suited/unsuited connectors/one gappers, maybe Q10,QJ, JT,Ace small xs, Kxs, Qxs, Jxs stuff like that.

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd say it'd be pretty hard to lay this down to a turn check-raise because the most likely holding for this guy is 86 once he does check-raise the turn. Remember, DcifrThs has trips/two-pair outs (some of which may not be clean if the other guy is on a flush draw) in a HUGE pot (14BB? if the blind calls on the turn and CO check-raises).

[/ QUOTE ]

yes i agree but i wasn't in the hand...were you alluding to an ealier post or something?

i also think that the bet is bad if it costs you the pot those times you check and let a hand that would have folded hit...but it doesn't seem that there are too many hands like that out there....it does look like you'll be up against hands that wont fold b/c they have a good amount of outs and if he does c'r you here it looks like a worse 2pair which you must call against so its not a great spot to be. i personally dont mind the turn check all that much as if its checked to you again you can pretty profitably bet for value.

you're not giving up that much on the turn by checking vs. an ace and a big draw or a hand w/ outs b/c they look like they'll call given the action and you want to see a showdown or at least induce a bad call from a hand that would call to improve on the turn but fold to the river bet. those hands you have the same ev against either way.

so i dont mind the turn check all that much but i would probably bet it myself, call a raise and fold the river UI.

-Barron

[elysium]

hi joe

by similar hands i mean hands like KJo, QJo, etc. enough times to make calling pre-flop correct. maybe i'm not explaining it exactly right, but to fully explain why raising with ATo is wrong would take a detailed analysis of loose late position play.

on the surface it looks like diplomat's hand is best and therefore he should raise, but when the raise is being made to increase the size of the pot, the strength of the hand must be significantly stronger thsn the hands that call the raise. this is so because the raise makes the field play better than they otherwise would had the pot size been kept smaller. given the fact that the field of callers will be playing better and that there is a greater chance of a showdown, even though ATo may be best pre-flop, the best course of action for ATo may not be to raise. add to this the risk of having your ATo reraised from behind, and taking down the pot before the showdown soon gains greater merit. by keeping the pot smaller, you also give ATo a better chance to win unimproved.

this isn't to say that ATo isn't a worthy hand to raise with pre-flop in this situation, nor is it to say that the raise doesn't have value. it does. so why not raise? because you improve the playability of any hand that calls the raise and create a competitor where once you ruled the field. you also reduce the chances of getting away from the hand if things go awry.

never raise from the button with ATo or KJo or even KQo for that matter. don't raise from the CO with it either. don't be such a hothead. call fool, call. and don't try to scare people out with your raise with one of these hands either. your hand plays better when you call.

[mike l.]

that check on the turn is incredibly weak and i was thinking that even before i saw the river action. there's no reason to think youre not usually ahead there.

[koa]

I can see the argument for both sides. I would probably go for the cheap showdown just cause if your behind you give yourself a free card and if your ahead your probably not ahead by much and will get called or raised. The flop was capped so its not like you haven't made them pay for their draw if thats all they have, but I don't mind the check on the turn but that might just be me.

[koa]

The check also induces a bluff if they miss on the river cause it looks like your on a draw too. And if they hit their draw they weren't going to fold on the turn so you save a bet or two.

[Gamblor]

[ QUOTE ]
never raise from the button with ATo or KJo or even KQo for that matter. don't raise from the CO with it either. don't be such a hothead. call fool, call. and don't try to scare people out with your raise with one of these hands either. your hand plays better when you call.


[/ QUOTE ]

Does this mean you never raise from late position with these hands as the first to voluntarily enter the pot?

This may go against everything I've ever read or learned about Texas Hold 'em.

[elysium]

hi gamblor

why raise? what is it that you want to accomplish? do you want to win the blinds? yes? are you sure? oh, you're not sure that you want to win the blinds. you have excellent position with what has a reasonable chance of being the best hand. you feel that your hand and position is worth more than just 1 1/2 bet. well, if you raise, you will win the blinds. some people would like that.

so what do you want to do? raise and build a big pot you say? only a hand of equal strength will be in there building a big pot with you. you will also encourage your opponents to play more perfectly due to pot size. is your hand strong enough for that? some people think that ATo is strong enough to build a big pot with.

the question isn't whether you should or should not raise first in with ATo or KQo from LP, the question is 'what is your action trying to accomplish?'. once you answer that question with some measure of definity, if you break down the gameplan requiring a raise reach the goal that you set out to achieve, you will find it wrought with nuisancesome quirks and pesky nuances that keep cropping up seemingly out of nowhere. the perspicacious player, however, will quickly realize his error which he discovers as he looks back at his pre-flop raise, and says rather blandly, 'should have called.'. and you know something gamblor, he's right.

before making a hold em decision, ask 'what am i trying to accomplish?'. it may go against the grain a bit gamblor, but if you know what you're trying to do, you will embark upon a more correct course of action as you set out to do it. never ask, 'am i sure that this is what i want to do?', after it's too late. by that time the answer will be self evident.

[felson]

[ QUOTE ]
On the river, your value bet is very thin. After all, it looks like they both had draws and missed. You will win often when you bet and they both fold, but how often will you win when you actually get called? About the only hand they can hold that you beat and they will call with is a suited Qh and Axh. Yeah, they might have those hands, but AJ is also in the picture.

[/ QUOTE ]

Jack kicker doesn't play once the board pairs. So the river bet chops against Ax.

[PennDisc]

You might win 2.5 blinds here without a fight. I'd say that is a great result. If you limp AT here against the BB, the CO poster, and the SB who will complete, you will certainly have to improve your hand to win. If people call the raise, you're getting the money in preflop with what is likely the best hand, not a bad result either. And they certainly don't necessarily have to have similar strength hands to call the raise either. Plus, if they do call the raise, you have position and the initiative. What good is your position going to do if you limp, rags flop, and the blinds come out firing? I don't agree with any of your reasons for limping.

[elysium]

[ QUOTE ]
What good is your position going to do if you limp, rags flop, and the blinds come out firing?

[/ QUOTE ]

forget about position, what good is the ATo going to do when rags flop and the little guys come out firing? by the way, that's another reason for limping.

[haakee]

Oops, I meant to say "Diplomat" not "DcifrThs"

[joes28]

I still disagree. I would be happy with stealing the blinds alone with this hand, the CO blind is just icing on the cake. One of the major problems I have with limping here is that by limping you have no idea what your opponent has, but by them calling/raising your raise at least you know that they have some sort of hand, so when the flop comes A 2 6, or something like that, you can play aggressively without too much concern over something like 26o.

not to mention, you give yourself a better chance for a free card.

[shemp]

Well, I haven't read the other posts yet, and I'm confused as all hell too, but once they check to me on the turn, I bet.

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
Jack kicker doesn't play once the board pairs. So the river bet chops against Ax.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good catch, thanks. I don't know where I stand now on the bet... I think I'm against it, as you lose all the potential value from weaker aces that I was counting. Just check behind and hope some chips get pushed your way.

-eric

[elindauer]

hi elysium,

I like your sentiment, thinking about what you are doing is simple and sound advice. In this spot, however, you seem to be using this argument to claim that you should open-limp AT, which is probably wrong. You have position and an excellent hand, raise. Your ideal result is to win the blinds, but if you fail to accomplish this, you're still making money seeing the flop for 2 bets, more than you are making seeing the flop for 1.

Calling essentially gives the blinds a free card, and you're hand, while currently best, is quite vulnerable to the 3 card flop.

Good luck.
Eric

[Gamblor]

[ QUOTE ]
why raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

At the very least, keep the pot shorthanded so that there is a reasonable chance my A-high will win unimproved.

Fold out 87o and K5o from the SB.

Fold 34s and T3o from the BB.

So when the flop comes, as most do, 952, you don't have too much to worry about, even if QJo does call your flop bet looking to improve.

[elysium]

hi joe

stealing the blinds....i threw that in for times when there isn't a poster in the hand. you shouldn't raise with ATo in that spot either unless you have extremely good players in the blinds, and you don't want to tangle with them. even then though, i like my ATo, and will want to do business.

but here?....joe there is no chance of stealing. the poster will call with anything and the blinds know that. the BB will be getting 6-1 at least....your raise to steal will be shot down before your chips hit the table, in this spot.

i am going to tell you people something, and i'm only going to tell it to you once; the great majority of players and posters here and elsewhere are losing players. if that's what you want to achieve in your game, that's fine. losing is fun. winning, on the other hand, is not fun. winning is boring. winning may also be unhealthy. it is unhealthy to be sitting around in a dirty filthy cardroom all day. winners are also made not to feel as welcome when they sit down to play. between winning and losing, in the long run losing may actually be more rewarding than is winning. finally, losing is great entertainment, winning hard work.

i want to make as many of you as i can, misereable. and following my advice will be misery. to anyone who is intelligent enough not to want to turn a great entertaiment experience into hardwork and boring drudgery, my advice to you is 'you probably play this game better than me. keep your cost down to $20 an hour and have fun.'. to all others, if there are others, you shall call with ATo in this spot, and not particularly happily will thou doth make that call.

now look around you. pretty dirty isn't it? welcome to the cardroom. this is where we will begin to force ourselves to think.

[bicyclekick]

[ QUOTE ]
to all others, if there are others, you shall call with ATo in this spot, and not particularly happily will thou doth make that call.


[/ QUOTE ]

Very interesting. You're going to have me thinking/conversing with fellow poker minds about this exact hand for a bit. I really need to rethink my game....cause I would never think of just calling in that spot. Sure if there had been 2 limpers and the co checked, I'd limp. Maybe even 1 limper, but just the blinds? [censored]. I'd be raising every time and you're making it sound horrible. Hmm.

but then you want me 3 betting j5o out of the blinds. I truly do not understand...but I want to.

[PennDisc]

[ QUOTE ]

forget about position, what good is the ATo going to do when rags flop and the little guys come out firing? by the way, that's another reason for limping.

[/ QUOTE ]

You were the one using position as a reason to limp. I think position is more valuable here if you have the initiative. Are you advocating that you limp, and then fold on an undercard flop if one of the blinds bets? How can that be better than stealing the blinds?

This seems like basic poker. You have what is likely the best hand, and you want to charge the lesser hands if they want to draw out. This is especially true since almost all hands have 6 outs on you, so why give free cards that could beat you? Would you check an undercard flop with QQ if your opponent was playing AK faceup?

Pokerstove indicates that against 2 random hands you have 44% equity with ATo, 34% against 3. So if they call, they call - it might be a correct decision for them, but since you have the best hand now with the most equity, you are making money. That may change depending on the flop or the action behind you - at which point you re-evaluate, all part of poker.

You also imply that you expect to do better than steal the blinds over the long run by limping this hand first in on the button. If you can provide some stats that say you average better than 1.5 SB profit open-limping this OTB, or even if you somehow have a better winrate than when open-raising OTB, then you'll spark a lot of interest.

As it is, it doesn't seem like a single other person agrees with open-limping this hand in this position. You say that this kind of play is indicative of losing players, so fine I guess all the responders in this thread must be losing players.

[skp]

I'll go against the grain and say "well played" throughout.

Everyone seems to be assuming that giving a free card is criminal but that free card simply cannot cost you the pot. At most, it can only cost you a fraction of 2 bets.

Now, 2 bets (or a fraction thereof) is a lot but it ain't the pot and therefore checking does not enter the 'criminal" realm. Giving free cards is criminal only if the free card that you give (usually in a multiway pot) goes on to beat you when that hand would have folded to a turn bet.

Here, obviously, there is a pretty good chance that you are the one drawing. So, that makes the turn check even less criminal.

It would be silly to check if you know that you have a very good chance of being in the lead but given all the bets that went in on the flop, you have to have a good measure of doubt.

The river bet is a gimme. No way that either of your oppponents checks a hand better than AT twice.

[joes28]

If you dont raise ATo here, what hands do you raise? AA, you wouldnt raise this here because you dont want to steal the blinds? Im definetly raising AA and ATo because I think my hand is best and I dont want to be seeing a flop with 3 other people in it.

I dont know about most of the posters being losing players or not, but i'd say the average win rate of the posters on this forum is much higher than the win rate of the average player.

[elysium]

hi penn

whether you raise with the ATo in this spot or not, it will not be a decisive factor in determining whether or not you are a winning player. many excellent players raise in this spot everytime.

the issue, though, about the prospects of stealing the blinds should send up a warning flare or two. by now, we should have had one or two in the crowd agree that a steal attempt is not advisable in this situation. there is also a lack of understanding about LP strategy, and it's pretty pervasive. the forum has slipped a notch. frivolous play has been greeted with a general acceptance instead of meaningful scornful destain. losing money now a habit; after all, money's easy to come by these days. why worry? let's have fun. i can play cards. can you play cards? do you know anything about poker? sure do. i can raise!

the truth is that you all are losing a lot of money. the losses are the result of each one of you telling the other how good he or she is. 2+2 has become a social club of delinquent misfits who have no intention of doing the things it takes to show even a crummy dollar profit at the end of the session. by this time, i usually would have had 2 posters with the contrarian viewpoint that stealing the blinds in this spot is not likely. and then, perhaps one lowly voice suggesting that not all steal-raises are successful, you know, just to perhaps slightly quell the 100% of the time win 2 1/2 blind chorus.

not all steal-raises are successful, even if you're stealing with AA, FWIW. uhh...

i could go on, but i won't. the sagacity might be enough to break your spirits or perhaps offend sensitivities, and mustn't offend; no, no, no. i won't pat you on the back, though, either. neither is my advice up for a vote. all you must do is make a yes or no decision, that's fair, isn't it? do you want to improve upon your game, yes or no? then stop casting votes and follow my advice to you. i don't mind being told i'm full of chit on any given piece of advice, just don't gloss over an important issue, like the issue of the prospects of actually stealing the blinds in every retort i've read so far in this post. give me one or two holdouts amongst yous people who will address the high improbability of succeeding, here in the blind steal department, and elsewhere in subsequent posted threads when my advice to you is to address the specific issue outlined and highlighted.

if it's important, i promise that i will do whatever it takes to make you aware of it. just don't fail to likewise acknowledge awareness about the point that has been highlighted by me as i reiterrate to you over and over again, so that you can address it intelligently. doing so will help you not to forget.

you people are going to learn how to play this game by rote, fair enough?

[elysium]

hi joe

you would raise with AA in that spot for other reasons. other than for value, why would you raise with AA?

[joes28]

1 reason I am raising with AA is because i want to thin the field. Which is also why im raising AT.

[elysium]

hi joe

no, no. it's o.k. though. we're going to do a month or so of this THE LORD willing, and you'll be hitting the right answer. as a team, we're all going to start getting in shape. i want you people to do some stretching.

[tomahawk]

elysium, you are hilarious, and probably a better player than I can ever hope to be, but this

[ QUOTE ]
so what do you want to do? raise and build a big pot you say? only a hand of equal strength will be in there building a big pot with you.

[/ QUOTE ]

and this

[ QUOTE ]
joe there is no chance of stealing. the poster will call with anything and the blinds know that. the BB will be getting 6-1 at least

[/ QUOTE ]

really doesn't make sense. maybe someday I'll get there..

[pokerhooker]

[ QUOTE ]

why raise? what is it that you want to accomplish? do you want to win the blinds? yes? are you sure? oh, you're not sure that you want to win the blinds. you have excellent position with what has a reasonable chance of being the best hand. you feel that your hand and position is worth more than just 1 1/2 bet. well, if you raise, you will win the blinds. some people would like that.


[/ QUOTE ]

I am persuaded to believe that the ev of playing ATo is considerably lower than 1.25BB. If this is true, as Sklansky writes, "winning the blinds is a coup". Therefore, I raise. What leads you to believe this hand is worth more? In your opinion, how big does one's ace have to be to change this scenario to a raise?

[oreogod]

OP pretty much said in his post, the blinds will not fold anything against him. Having the poster check, doesnt ATo have equity in this situation?

Why would u just call. U have position and blinds willing to play any 2. You hand figures to be the best in this situation.

[shemp]

Well, skp, something to think about. Online I'd agree. Live I just can't imagine a double check raise here, so I bet. On the river, I'd have to think about it. But I bet the turn.

[elysium]

hi tom

to clarify what you can expect to be called with when mass psychology begins awakening to the extra money being offered by the pot; and it need not be a lot extra; we would need to include even some of the malignants we are used to checking with pre-flop from the BB. it doesn't take a hundred dollar bill out there to excite the psychology of greed that turns on the crowd whenever people gather together for what we call a poker game, or, we might as well just say it, a money fight. when people gather together for a money fight, the very first thing that you must know is that where even a little extra free money is involved, the risk involved in attepting to take it is psychologically minimalized through the process of mass rationalization inducted by the desire to possess. this desire can become so powerful that whatever the actual value of the hole cards, the player who desires to possess the extra free money being offered will perceive them to be of greater value than his opponent's. and again, it need not be a lot of extra money to bring this change of behavior about.

74o is no longer seen as such. instead, the desire to possess may cause your opponent to experience his hand as an aesthetic array of vivid colors and light. others stricken by the idea of extra free money may experience their hole cards through the auditory sensory, hearing euphoric musical notes or the sound of many harps in harmonious symphony suggestive of wealth and splendor. 74o may be funky for the beatnik or jiving for the soulful when you throw a little extra money into the mix.

69o is a total dud, but throw in a little extra pocket change and 69o becomes 'don't take the brown acid man.' for the retired hippy. he will call you down to the river, unimproved man.

to make matters worse, you will have opponents in there who will have the same strength hand as ATo. these opponents will usually not reraise but instead opt out for letting your greed get the better of you. they will read you as weak and if they get the slightest bit ahead of you, they will raise with what they feel is the hands down winner. and as i said previously, raising pre-flop is eliminating options that you may need in your post-flop arsenal those times you don't improve significantly.

i am reminded of the ol' saying; 'second best hands can sometimes be the best, but they're even better when they're best but played like second best.'. when you raise in from the button, you will be greeted by a wide variety of hands when a little free money is thrown to the crowd. only fools rush into these situations with a raise, in fact, this hand should never be raised first in from LP except in the rarest of circumstances. this goes for KJo and KQo too.

[bicyclekick]

[ QUOTE ]
only fools rush into these situations with a raise, in fact, this hand should never be raised first in from LP except in the rarest of circumstances. this goes for KJo and KQo too.

[/ QUOTE ]

I can't buy this man. You've got some interesting thoughts, but cmon, who are you kidding?

[Diplomat]

I think my turn check might have been a mistake but if so, it's close. Equally confusing was the result; I tabled my AT, the CO poster tabled A5, and the SB mucked angrily. My best guess is that he had Qxs of hearts.

-Diplomat

[Catt]

Now that the discussion has died down and you've posted results, what the heck is "Scugog?"

[mc1023]

I really need to make a comment about these posts.

It seems like you are saying that there is no point in raising ATo here since the blinds and poster will call with literally any two cards. Also that if they hit the flops they are going to overplay their hands assuming you are weak.

Now even if I knew that the poster would call any two, including the blinds and I have 0% chance of getting a fold from any of the 3 players I would still raise. Why? Simply because if they are willing to call me with dominated and just plain donk hands I am very +ev.

Your trying to put your "mass psychology" into a simple 20-40 game where the players are awful and making mistakes with the illusion that there is more money to be won since there is a poster so they should call with any two cards.

and your final statement in the end, about "sometimes play the 2nd best hand like the 2nd best hand" just clarifies to me that you are weak in this kind of spot where you should clearly raise. Since before you see the action of the blinds and the poster you are already thinking that they will run you over.

If the other players see you limping with ATo or maybe even AJo in this spot and you go to showdown. One of those times you get AA or KK maybe they will not opt to call with there 27o since they know you will not steal attempt in this kind of situation.

To add to that your basically assuming before you even see the flop and get into the hand that they see you having a weak hand and will play aggressively towards you with marginal holdings.

I just can't possibly see the theory of how this would be a bad situation to be in.

Three awful players giving action with possibly just disgusting hands and on top of that they will be willing to overplay their cards.

Anyone else sense weakness?

[Diplomat]

An area North-East of Toronto, part of which is Reserve land, that has a casino. I was going for a weak Sleepless in Seattle reference. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

-Diplomat

[Guruman]

just a thought from an outsider here:

I don't mind the idea of a late limp with ATo. A raise here wont scare anyone away, and our equity against four random sets of cards is much less than what people are giving it credit for. PS says something like 30%.

OP raised for value here because he knew the blinds hated him and would call. There are a couple of problems with this though:

1)ATo is a big pair hand. It wont win against this field unimproved, and it doesnt play well multiway. The preflop raise works against this hand's strength because it will only create a large pot with many players in a situation where it needs to improve one or both cards to win. This is true even in situations like this where our opponents could hold any two.

2)On top of hurting our ability to play the hand post-flop, it also gives away information about our hand. Hero's opponents know they arent going anywhere in this hand, and they have to figure that he knows this as well. If you made this move against me in this spot, I'd have to figure it was for value with anything better than KQs. I'd still call, but I'd play it like you had a pair or two big cards. A limp just tells me that you have two cards here.

3)top pair type hands often need protection post flop. A limp on a weakish Ace like this one with position puts only 4 SBs in the pot. Now when the flop comes with an Ace, you can raise a bet and force others to call two cold into a much smaller pot. With the preflop raise you have to make the same move, but is is much less effective.

re: the turn checkthrough:

the only way this move makes sense is if your read puts you in a WA/WB situation. The tightrope you walk is between pushing an edge you might not even have, and protecting a hand you may be ahead with. Looks pretty read dependant to me.

My .02 /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[hicherbie]

i think ely did a pretty good job explaining the late position pf section of HEFAP/"when the blinds are really loose". after reading these posts, i went back and reread that section (& AQo section as well). it has made me think a lot more about what my raises and bets really try to accomplish in certain spots. i hope these kinds of threads continue.

[Jdanz]

i like the thinking, but i think it's wrong here as 1 or 2 of the three blinds in this hand folding greatly increases A) chances of winning and B) dead money in the pot.

It's an interesting concept, but i think what you lose vs qj is much less then what you gain vs, either a calling or folding 96o.