Good fold or deserves a call?

[Sinnister]

Villian is a TAG 23%/12%

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Sinn is Button with J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif. CO posts a blind of $1.
UTG :#A500AF(Villain)/ calls, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, CO (poster) checks, <font color="#CC3333">Sinn raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG :#A500AF(Villain)/ caps</font>, CO folds, Sinn folds, SB calls.

Flop: (12 SB) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Villain bets</font>, SB folds.

Final Pot: 6.50 BB

[davelin]

You were getting 2:12. Bad fold.

[aK13]

That fold is atrocious.

[Sinnister]

wow with someone with stats that tight i think im up against aces 90% of the time anyone else have any comments?

[JordanIB]

[ QUOTE ]
That fold is atrocious.

[/ QUOTE ]

[davelin]

[ QUOTE ]
wow with someone with stats that tight i think im up against aces 90% of the time anyone else have any comments?

[/ QUOTE ]

It doesn't matter if he had Aces, do you see why?

[topspin]

[ QUOTE ]
You were getting 2:12. Bad fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Sinnister]

actualy i was getting 9:2 odds = 4.5 to 1 which is my dogness to aces plus i have another hand im up against, I think it was a great fold

[bosoxfan]

If he is 23/12 you think he only caps with aces there? He could easily have a suited AK.

[Sinnister]

hes not the only one im up against someone has an overpair definately here

[istewart]

[ QUOTE ]
wow with someone with stats that tight i think im up against aces 90% of the time anyone else have any comments?

[/ QUOTE ]

WTF? His PFR% is TWELVE.

[Jaran]

[ QUOTE ]
It doesn't matter if he had Aces, do you see why?

[/ QUOTE ]

/images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/grin.gif

-Jaran

[davelin]

[ QUOTE ]
actualy i was getting 9:2 odds = 4.5 to 1 which is my dogness to aces plus i have another hand im up against, I think it was a great fold

[/ QUOTE ]

Villain put in 4 bets, SB put in 4 bets, you put in 2 bets already, BB put in a bet, the poster put in a bet. 2:12.

They could flip over AA and KK and you're still right to make this call. Do you see why?

[einbert]

Huge mistake.

[davelin]

[ QUOTE ]
hes not the only one im up against someone has an overpair definately here

[/ QUOTE ]

Sigh...it doesn't matter!

[aces_dad]

I recall in HPFAP there is a similar discussion on playing J's in a raised pot. Basically even if villian had A's your potential set can stand to make a lot of money, making your implied odds better than normal.

Given that flop I'm implied to peel one more off before I give up as the payoff could be so big.

[Sinnister]

honestly i dont, considering im up against another big reraising hand.

[Sinnister]

negative

[davelin]

[ QUOTE ]
honestly i dont, considering im up against another big reraising hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

*cough* go for the set *cough*

[Sinnister]

lol so true, but lets say i miss and flop is the same?

[Sinnister]

Wow guys I have been playing poker for a long time and i am surprised I asked such a newb question. It was a huge mistake I just thought in my head he has aces and i am a dog. HUGE MISTAKE I agree now I forgot about set potential.


Brain fart

[einbert]

[ QUOTE ]
lol so true, but lets say i miss and flop is the same?

[/ QUOTE ]

You would have odds to call the flop for one thing.

[davelin]

[ QUOTE ]
lol so true, but lets say i miss and flop is the same?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well then you have to play poker. What are your reads of this opponent, would he cap say with something like TT or AKs? 12% pre-flop raising is a pretty wide ranging of raising hands although it says nothing about capping hands.

[Rev. Good Will]

[ QUOTE ]
Villian is a TAG 23%/12%

[/ QUOTE ]

12% of hands raised != AA, KK, and QQ only

you need this (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&amp;Board=holdem&amp;Number=1478924&amp;PHPS ESSID=&amp;fpart=1#Post1478924)

your getting good enough odds for a set even if he did

EDIT - whoops! he cold-capped, NVM.

[davelin]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
lol so true, but lets say i miss and flop is the same?

[/ QUOTE ]

You would have odds to call the flop for one thing.

[/ QUOTE ]

Eh, not really getting something like 1:15. I don't like your backdoor draw.

[einbert]

Well he did limp-cap, I would say that his range might be
{QQ-AA, AKs}
but the truth is there is no telling because we don't know what hands he will go for a limp-reraise with. For all we know he just decided to get goofy with 99 or AJs.

[einbert]

[ QUOTE ]
Eh, not really getting something like 1:15. I don't like your backdoor draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think hero has the best hand here some portion of the time as well.

[aK13]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
lol so true, but lets say i miss and flop is the same?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well then you have to play poker. What are your reads of this opponent, would he cap say with something like TT or AKs? 12% pre-flop raising is a pretty wide ranging of raising hands although it says nothing about capping hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Granted he has 12% PFR, but I doubt he is limp-capping with anything less than AA or KK (and very infrequently AKs)

[davelin]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Eh, not really getting something like 1:15. I don't like your backdoor draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think hero has the best hand here some portion of the time as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ah, yes that may be true. When you said odds to call, I inferred that you meant you were trying to hit your 2-outer.

[ReptileHouse]

[ QUOTE ]
It doesn't matter if he had Aces, do you see why?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll give that a shot.

With JJ and a backdoor flush draw, I have about 3.5 outs or so as a redraw if I'm behind right now, plus I have an overpair which may well be good already. That's good enough odds to call with a pot this size.

Now to read the rest of the thread to see if I'm on target...

[Sinnister]

If im staying past the flop id have to raise and if i get reraised im in a bad spot in the long run, id probably dump the flop

[Rev. Good Will]

this thread has enough sklansky-isms posted to last me a few weeks

...and its not even close

[Sinnister]

The limp cap is always dangerous imho, still an awful fold

[einbert]

[ QUOTE ]
If im staying past the flop id have to raise

[/ QUOTE ]
Why?

[davelin]

[ QUOTE ]
If im staying past the flop id have to raise and if i get reraised im in a bad spot in the long run, id probably dump the flop

[/ QUOTE ]

If you'd called pre-flop the pot would be 14. A bet from Villain, a raise by you and a re-raise by him would give you 1:19. You'd almost have to call again for the 2-outer.

[Sinnister]

Well on this flop i should assume i may be ahead and raising to see where i am at, or should i always assume i am behind in this situation

[aK13]

[ QUOTE ]
Well on this flop i should assume i may be ahead and raising to see where i am at, or should i always assume i am behind in this situation

[/ QUOTE ]

You are not always behind, but you are more likely to be behind than ahead, so raising isn't good.

Limp-capping:
QQ (6)
KK (6)
AA (6)
AK (16)

Not to mention it is VERY bold of AK to play this way.

[Sinnister]

exactly, but if i just call i could get oushed off with ak so id have to raise and if i reraise im forced to call probably call the preflop, pell one off maybe even fold here

[aK13]

[ QUOTE ]
exactly, but if i just call i could get oushed off with ak so id have to raise and if i reraise im forced to call probably call the preflop, pell one off maybe even fold here

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't want AK to fold here...

[einbert]

[ QUOTE ]
Well on this flop i should assume i may be ahead and raising to see where i am at, or should i always assume i am behind in this situation

[/ QUOTE ]

If you assume you're ahead, don't you already know "where you're at"?

In this particular situation, you aren't ahead very often, but you are ahead some of the time. If you raise you're going to get reraised when you're beat, and you won't be able to fold to it. And even if you ahead (of AKs) raising doesn't really do anything for you. The best play here is to just call and see what the turn brings.

In general raising "to see where you're at" is not a good thing.

[Sinnister]

What is poker stove and what other software can i add to my arsenal besdies pt and gt+?

[Sinnister]

No but if i dont raise i dont want AKs to make ME fold.

[gopnik]

no way in hell I am folding that.

[Hellmouth]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Not to mention it is VERY bold of AK to play this way.

[/ QUOTE ]

Even GSIH which is a beginners book says to cap with AKs

Greg

[gopnik]

[ QUOTE ]
You don't want AK to fold here...

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes, he does

[einbert]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You don't want AK to fold here...

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes, he does

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course he wants AK to fold, the problem is that someone volatile enough to limp/cap with AK might just reraise the flop and lead the turn with it.

But mostly, reraising is bad because the money you gain for charging AK to draw out on you doesn't nearly make up for the money you lose most of the time when you get reraised by a higher overpair.

[TheWorstPlayer]

Umm...easiest call I've ever seen? WTF? Are you familiar with the concept of implied odds?

[topspin]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Not to mention it is VERY bold of AK to play this way.

[/ QUOTE ]

Even GSIH which is a beginners book says to cap with AKs

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you are confusing bet-capping with cold-capping.