Am i really ahead X% of the time here?

[tolbiny]

5-10 sh Party, full table. Table is fairly normal (ie not noticably aggressive). NOthing specific on my opponent.

One limper to me- i have A8o (no A hearts) in the small blind and i complete. BB checks.
Flop J /images/graemlins/heart.gif 8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif
i bet, the bb folds, and the limper calls.
Turn 5 /images/graemlins/heart.gif i bet, limper raises, i three bet, limper calls.
River 7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif
i bet, limper raises.

Do i really have to call here?

[Jeff W]

[ QUOTE ]
Do i really have to call here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes.

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Do i really have to call here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes.

[/ QUOTE ]

Absolutely. Pot is big. It's a profitable call. I don't think I could lay this down without a monster read.

Krishan

[Easy E]

Would you really consider folding for one more bet here?? If you would, why did you bet the river? /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[college_boy]

He could have played an 8 this way.

[tolbiny]

[ QUOTE ]
Would you really consider folding for one more bet here?? If you would, why did you bet the river? /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Its a value bet on the river. HIs raise changes his range of hands. His raise on the turn could be almost anything- a big lone heart, oesd, an 8 with a smaller kicker. Once he calls my three bet and raises the river i have to think there are three possibilities.
1. He didn't want to scare me away with a cap on the turn with a monster.
2. He got there on the river
3. Hes bluffing.

[Easy E]

Maybe I don't understand value bet here, or I'm not doing enough of it myself short-handed.

If a raise represents a losing situation 66% of the time, how is your initial value bet overcoming what I'm calculating as the -EV?

$85 pot (minus rake) on the river. You "value bet" $10 to win $10 if he calls with a worse hand. Let's say generously 40% of the time, since it's shorthanded= $4 EV

However, if you fold to the bluff and lose $95 (not including his $20 bet)... you only have to be wrong 5% of the time or more to make your value bet look less valuable.

So, when you value bet, you have to be more than 95% sure that he's not bluffing before you can 100% fold to a raise.

2/3 of the time, you only lost $10 more than you should. 1/3 of the time, you lost $95 more.

So, you can value bet $10 on the river, fold to any raise and have to be right 96% of the time... so you can make $4.

How often would check-calling be more profitable than betting out? If he bluffs more than 40% of the time here, you gain in EV and risk only $10 rather than $20 to call the raise to prevent the disaster of giving the pot away.

Did I calculate this incorrectly?

[Zele]

I read the first half of your post, and I thought your question was going to be call or raise , not call or fold. I was leaning toward call, but it's debatable.

Fold? No. No, no, no, no, no.