To Peel or not to Peel

[Pinlifter]

The Hand: Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 3 /images/graemlins/spade.gif in the BB
The Flop: 7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 3 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif
The Particulars: With the flop action there are now 6.5 sbs in the pot. There are two opponents left and you will be closing the action. This is party 2/4 and you have no reads at all on your opponents.

[SeaEagle]

I'd give myself 5 solid outs, plus with this board you may currently have the best hand. You have odds to peel.

Incidentally, I would have bet out on this flop.

[meep_42]

You have the Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif and the 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif is on the board, so your 2-pair and trips outs aren't tainted. Additionally, you have a decent bd flush draw and excellent position to trap the field for a big bet if you hit on the turn.

6.5 outs, needing 6.23:1, easy peel for me.

-d

[DocMartin]

I peel it off like a week-old sunburn.

[swatkaizen]

So you have 3 limpers and you before the flop. You checked around on the flop. 1 bet from a mid position, and another called?

What if they have a set of 7s or 8s? The Qs and 3s aren't going to help. You have 1.5 outs to 3rd best flush. How loose are these players could one have limped in with Q8s? Then you have 3.5 outs, and it's not the backdoor nut flush you're drawing, too.

With one in and one caller, I'm not sure it's an easy peel. I suppose implied odds could push it toward peel though.

-noobie

[jason_t]

Okay nits, come forward. I just now became the thirteenth 'yes, peel' vote and there are currently nine 'no, don't peel' votes. Explain yourself.

[JoshuaD]

[ QUOTE ]
Okay nits, come forward. I just now became the thirteenth 'yes, peel' vote and there are currently nine 'no, don't peel' votes. Explain yourself.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was the 11th peel vote. This seems pretty standard.

Step up and take your lashing if you voted not peel.

[brettbrettr]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Okay nits, come forward. I just now became the thirteenth 'yes, peel' vote and there are currently nine 'no, don't peel' votes. Explain yourself.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was the 11th peel vote. This seems pretty standard.

Step up and take your lashing if you voted not peel.

[/ QUOTE ]

4th peeler.

(If I ever said "holla!" I think I'd do so here as in "4th peeler, holla!" But I don't say "holla!" so I'll just leave is as is.)

[Padawan Learner]

"Even if you hit your hand on the turn, you are subject to redraws on the river-- straight draws, flush draw, A or K for higher 2 pair. So you have to take into account the fact that when you do hit your hand, you will be outdrawn a decent percentage of the time. To peel, you ideally want a moderate overlay, which you really don't have. And with only 2 players in, your implied odds aren't so hot."

I vote for peeling here, b/c I think it is a profitable spot, but I thought I would put down an argument for folding since the folders won't represent.

[shant]

Ron Popeil that [censored].

[mdob]

Fold. We have 5 outs to two-pair/trips and let's say 1 out for the back-door flush. We need 6.8-1 to call and we're not getting it. This is almost the best case scenario. The chance of us having the best hand now is pretty slim with a mid-position bet and a call and I'm assuming our hand is good if we hit the Q or 3. If it's not, we have big reverse-implied odds. If it is, we only have good implied odds against 78.

[Justin A]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd give myself 5 solid outs, plus with this board you may currently have the best hand. You have odds to peel.

Incidentally, I would have bet out on this flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would have with one less limper. This pot size showed up because of three limpers.

[Pinlifter]

with my money at the table and here in the pole. I knew it was close so I decided to post it.

1. There is a slim chance my Q and 3 outs are tainted(i.e. one of my opponents limped with A3 or Q8).
2. I can make my hand and still be outdrawn.
3. My backdoor flush draw is not to the nuts.

At best I got 5.5 outs and without reads(it was my first hand at the table) I have no gaurantee implied odds will carry me to profitability.

PinLifter

[swatkaizen]

[ QUOTE ]
1. There is a slim chance my Q and 3 outs are tainted(i.e. one of my opponents limped with A3 or Q8).

[/ QUOTE ]

I mentioned this before, but isn't at least one of your opponent's betting pattern consistent with 77 or 88? To which your 3 Qs and 2 3s are drawing dead. You should discount for this, too. Am I missing something?

-k

[ihardlyknowher]

[ QUOTE ]
We have 5 outs to two-pair/trips and let's say 1 out for the back-door flush. We need 6.8-1 to call and we're not getting it.

[/ QUOTE ]

We are getting 6.5:1 pot odds, you don't believe in 0.15BBs of implied odds here?

[Pinlifter]

[ QUOTE ]
I mentioned this before, but isn't at least one of your opponent's betting pattern consistent with 77 or 88? To which your 3 Qs and 2 3s are drawing dead. You should discount for this, too. Am I missing something?

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't forget 33.

Pinlifter

[Pinlifter]

for the sake of the night crowd

[damaniac]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
1. There is a slim chance my Q and 3 outs are tainted(i.e. one of my opponents limped with A3 or Q8).

[/ QUOTE ]

I mentioned this before, but isn't at least one of your opponent's betting pattern consistent with 77 or 88? To which your 3 Qs and 2 3s are drawing dead. You should discount for this, too. Am I missing something?

-k

[/ QUOTE ]

Am I missing something? How can you put someone on a set given the action? It's possible, however there is absolutely no reason to fear it at this point in the hand.