Bet or check?

[TheCat]

Poker Stars $50 NLHE rebuy tournament.

Blinds are 400/800. 8 players on the table. I'm UTG 20K chips with AQo I raise to 2400, folded around to SB 22K chips, who calls, BB folds.

SB is new to the table and you have no read on him.

Flop comes three rags, SB checks.

Do I make a continuation bet or check and take a free card?

In the actual game I made a pot sized continuation bet. I think this was a big mistake as SB must have something. My raise UTG shows strength so he's got to be calling with something that has me beat.

What do you think?

[nightlyraver]

I make a continuation bet of a little more than half the pot. The pot-sized bet seems kind of suspect IMO from the SB's point of view. He doesn't necessarily have a better hand, as SB's call raises with weaker A's or KQ enough times for a bet to be profitable. Also, if he has a pocket pair but not AA or KK, he is risking a lot by checking here. I'm betting that he must have to have some read on you (i.e. you WILL continuation bet) for him to check a hand like TT and then raise you. More often than not I'm expecting a better hand to bet from the SB and a worse hand to check-fold. If he has you beat, he has you beat and this is the cheapest spot to find out. Taking a free card doesn't really help you since, A) he may get fancy with you on the turn since you didn't bet the flop B) it's unlikely you will make a hand on the turn and C) he probably will bet the turn no matter what falls and you will probably have to fold.

Don't make a continuation bet ALWAYS or else you will be too predictable. But on a flop like this it should be done.

[Rduke55]

I like betting. It could have very well missed him too. 1/2 to 3/4 pot should be about right. Pot sized bet looks like you're trying to buy it so his middle or low PP looks better.
If he calls, shut down.

[SpeakEasy]

Bet 2200 on the flop.

[transmitt]

A flat call and a turn check makes me think overpair to the board and a check raise is coming, I think I check this to the river and see a card. I suspect 88-JJ here.

[schwza]

tell us what the flop is. or at least make something concrete up if you don't remember.

7d 6d 4h is a lot different from 2c 2d 3s.