Mental tricks with long odds

[J_V]

I have a question about how to estimate "probability of being good" or the probability of winning the pot via bluff. These skills are very important in limit poker but are very unscientific. What are some tricks people use. For instance its sort've hard to appreciate what 1/10 is. Often times people get discouraged bluffing, when it fails a high %, eventhough it may be profitable in the long run. It's hard to estimate if a play is profitable against a player if you bluff once a month and it only has to work 1 in 10. What I try to do is put myself in their shoes so I can guage how often I would fold. Of course this is not all that effective. As SKP says, "It's easier read a players hand, then his mind." Maybe, I am asking the impossible. Any other ideas?

[Bob T.]

Watch how often players fold on each street to a bet. Some players fold on the flop, or they stay until the river. Some always call the flop, and might fold on the turn. Some will nearly always stay to the river and fold there if they haven't finally caught something. If you have an idea of where they fold when they have to, you can have an idea of how often they might be in the hand this far with nothing, and then you have an idea of how often a bluff will succeed.

Good Luck,
Play Well,

Bob T.

[Hotchile]

I think that besides game selection, table image is the second most important aspect of poker. I take note of how often a player pays me off in when I have a big hand. This illustrates that players impression of me. Some players won't go past the flop without hitting big. Some go to the turn and some will always pay me off at the river. Not hard to figure out which ones I will bluff most often.

Larry

[J_V]

You guys both make good points. However, my question was along the lines of how does one feel the difference between 1/8 and 1/10? How do you make a bluff that you know is likely to fail, even though you think its profitable you will likely never have any positive reinforcement. The bluffs I make are made because the Ev is extra high. Anyway around this?

[Bob T.]

I don't know. What I do, is if there is some draw on the board that is consistant with how my opponent has played the hand, I bluff. If not, I look for a better opportunity.

Here is a hand.

I am in the big blind with 87 of spades. 4 limpers, I check.

Flop K /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif 6 /forums/images/icons/spade.gif 2 /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif .

Checked through.

Turn K /forums/images/icons/heart.gif . I decide to try and steal and bet.

two folds, 1 player considers, and then calls, last player folds.

I decide that I will bet the river unless a diamond comes on the river.

River 2 /forums/images/icons/spade.gif . I bet, and he mucks before I release my chips. Ok, how often do you think this works, %50, %40, %30?
It is hard to put an exact value on this hand, especially when you are trying to tell the difference between 10-1, and 8-1 which are really only a couple of percentage points apart. You just have to find some situations, and some opponents that this works against sometimes, and go for it. Unless, you have a better sense of it than I do (and I suspect most players also do) you will never be able to discern the difference between 8-1 and 10-1.

I am not sure, but I think that most of us probably bluff on the river at too low of a frequency, because we don't take those bluffs that are going to work 1/10 of the time, but are looking for those that work at least 1/4 of the time. On the other hand, if we are perceived as a frequent bluffer, then those other ones, won't work as often.

Good Luck,
Play Well,

Bob T.

[J.A.Sucker]

I really don't think that the human mind can quantitavely assess differences this small. The difference from 1/8 to 1/10 is miniscule, and people who feel that they can accurately assess these differences are just wrong - especially at a poker table. To bluff yourself, then you can bluff according to some 3rd-party event. If you want to bluff 10% of the time, then do it if the second hand on your watch is between 0 and 6 seconds when you glance at it. To snap off a bluff, then it's harder, IMO, since you can't assess the odds that he's bluffing very well. I usually err on the side of calling, just because if he's bluffing 1/10 of the time and I think it's 1/8, then I'm not that far off anyway so it's a miniscule mistake. Plus, maybe people will think that I'm a calling station and will bluff less against me.

These are just my opinions, but I'm Just Another Sucker.

[Hotchile]

I think J.A makes a very good point. When it's close in calling a bluff, I often tend to call just for future value of being bluffed less often. If it's close in making a bluff with small EV, I tend not to take the opportunity based on how I may be affected in future hands as well. This is where Mike Caro and I disagree. He supports the wild image so that he can get paid of big when he hits. I have had a few "2 day can't in a pot sessions" and would have lost a great deal if I was unable to run a few successful bluffs. My table image kept me closer to even. That is why I prefer to forego slight +ev bluffing situations.

Larry