Call all-in with 66?

[pergesu]

PP $22, Blinds 50/100, 5 handed.

Button: 1973
Hero: 1405
BB: 1041
UTG: 626
CO: 2955

Hero has 66.

UTG pushes, folds around to hero.

He had just lost a big pot. Given his stack size, he will push UTG with a huge range of hands. But his huge range of hands is still usually two overcards.

Who folds, and who pushes over the top?

edit: fixed stack sizes

[Myst]

You dominate 22-55, A5-, K5-, Q5-

I probably fold.

[Sabrazack]

I would fold this, however i would probably call with 88 and i would call with 66 if the blinds were one level higher.

[HesseJam]

I probably fold. You stay 3rd and he stays 5th taking the money from 4th place if BB doesn't call. If BB calls and wins it is one elimination and you are the short stack, but not very short.

If you push and loose you are last place with 5 to go.

If you push and win you just 2nd.

The possible loss outweighs the possible gains in this situation.

[ChipLeader]

This is a situation ive been struggling with as well. IN this case, theres 2 semi-dominant stacks, neither of which are locks for the money but definately way ahead, and 2 middle stacks, + 1 semi-short. Two of you have to go.

I call.

After thinking about it, you have 100 of the 600 in already, and losing puts you at 775 with the other 2 shorter stacks at 1250 and 1041, and you are the furthest from the BB with good position coming up. Youll be slightly ahead in a race i say MOST of the time, a 1/5 occassionally against a higher PP, and a 4/5 against a lower PP rarely, (also possible he has Ax with x <6). However, this isnt a cash game so its not all pot odds.

Since its hard to know where youre at, but reasonable to think youre going to win whether ahead or behind about half the time, we have to look at the outcomes.
A.) You lose and have to steal about 2.5 BBs to be right back in it as a contender with 1G+. There are 3 semi-even stacks.
B.) You win and are sitting on about 2G, leaving you in 2nd and furthest from the blinds. Now 1G stack is considerably short

Given the HUGE advantage in winning and the relatively minor disadvantage in losing, i say its a must call. You put yourself in excellent position to make money, but more importantly, you give yourself a stack to contend for first with rather than fighting it out for third. If you lose, you still havr to fight for third, its just a little harder.

[ChipLeader]

[ QUOTE ]

If you push and loose you are last place with 5 to go.

If you push and win you just 2nd.

The possible loss outweighs the possible gains in this situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree, especially with saying "you just 2nd."
A big stack on the bubble is HUGE because no one wants to leave and they are therefore more willing to give up blinds. Also, the shorties are more willing to go at it if eveyrone else is way ahead, meaning the "just 2nd" position is as advantageous for tight players as for weak.

Also, he is last place but no where near short if he loses. If he steals on the button next hand hes at 900 and the 1045 stack will also be down to 945 cause of blinds. I say the reward is VERY worth the risk.

For full reasoning, see my previous post on this thread.

[EasilyFound]

I usually call in that spot. But as I read more here on this board, I realize that many people would fold, so I'm not sure what the consensus view of the correct play is here. Would like to see what others say.

[HesseJam]

I will think about what you said. You seem to have some points.

With "just" 2nd I meant Just a tad more than 3rd.

[pergesu]

Yeah, I wasn't exactly sure what to do either.

I just need curtains to come in and say, "You bonehead, it's obvious you need to ____"

[Big Limpin']

Look at a clock. If the minutes are an odd number, call. If they are an even number, fold.

What i mean is that this decision is probably close enough that there isnt significant +/- $ in either line. Dont beat yourself up over it. Let the clock decide for you.

[ChrisW]

This is an easy push, as the short stack will be moving in very aggressively here. Why? If the short stack folds UTG, next hand he'll put 1/6 of his stack in the BB and will thus feel compelled to call all-in with many average hands due to pot odds. So, if he picks up a meaningfully above-average hand UTG, it is clear for him to move in.

If we assume that he will move in with any ace, any two broadways, or any pair (which I think are conservative assumptions given the conditions), you will win a touch more than 53% of the confrontations. (I make the number 53.16% based on an estimate of 52% when he has two overcards; you dominate his Ax or lower pair a bit more often than he dominates you.)

If the BB folds to your raise, you are investing 576 chips to win a total pot of 1352, and your pot equity is 719. (If you can't see where these numbers came from, find a new game.) So, you're investing 576 chips with an expected net return of +143. How many poker bets have an expected return of 25%? This one is too good to pass up.

Of course, the BB may wake up with a big hand and call you. So what? If all had folded around to you in the SB, you'd have moved in on him with 66 to capture the 150 chips in blinds despite the risk of being called. Here, your equity in moving in is essentially the same; you are moving in to capture 143 chips in equity by confronting the short stack. Additionally, you'll be called by the BB less frequently here because your all-in raise is a stronger play than an opening all-in bet.

There are also some tournament-based reasons to make this call. As someone already said, winning this pot will allow you to bully the other medium stacks. Also, showing your aggressiveness may make other players less likely to attack your blinds on a future hand.

[kyro]

Chris already alluded to this, but calling is not an option. At all. If you're going to play this (which I haven't decided, I'll be using my time bank for this round), you need to push to knock out 77-99 and any overcards that could call and cripple you.

[CarlSpackler]

If you are going for 1st place, I think you have to push, because the chip leader has over twice as big a stack as you, and this could very well be the best chance you have to catch up. As long as the BB doesn't wake up with a monster, you're risking 576 to win 776 in a spot where you're very likely a slight favorite. If the villain does have a pp, he'll dominate you 2/3 of the time, and you'll dominate him the other 1/3. If you lose, you still have 829, which is still plenty of folding equity when you take into account the size of the two stacks to your left. If you win, you'll have 2181 chips, have eliminated a player, and will be on the bubble in great position with the SS to your left.

[PokerCat69]

I'd need 77 to call this.

[pineapple888]

[ QUOTE ]
As long as the BB doesn't wake up with a monster, you're risking 576 to win 776 in a spot where you're very likely a slight favorite.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the whole key. Forget all that other crap. This is a +168CEV play on the face of it, and you have the original bettor covered. You have to take a shot.

[pergesu]

Boy, I sure play poker goot.

[MastiffPaul]

[ QUOTE ]
Look at a clock. If the minutes are an odd number, call. If they are an even number, fold.

What i mean is that this decision is probably close enough that there isnt significant +/- $ in either line. Dont beat yourself up over it. Let the clock decide for you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Tiiiiiii-iiiiiime is on your side. Yes it is!

[EasilyFound]

[ QUOTE ]
but calling is not an option

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. WHen I read this post originally, I thought hero was last to act. I would push with one player to act.