QTs makes flush on non-pair board, calls river raise

[DavidC]

Break out the weak-sauce: Villain is 16 vpip, 7 pfr, and aggressive after 141 hands. No specific reads, unfortunately.

Just curious if you guys like the call on the river.

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Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (5 SB) 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks, MP1 checks.

Turn: (2.50 BB) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB folds, UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP1 calls, SB folds, UTG calls.

River: (9.50 BB) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, UTG folds, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 13.50 BB

[RaiNz]

I 3bet/CC on the river. I don't see what he could have that beats you that wouldn't warrant a flop bet when checked to, except maybe A4s or K4s. I would expect A8s and K8s to bet the flop.

[einbert]

I would generally bet this flop.

I don't like the river call, I would have three bet and called a cap.

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
I would generally bet this flop.

I don't like the river call, I would have three bet and called a cap.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well... I've been betting a lot of these, and getting a lot of calls. Is it good or bad to get like 3 calls when you make a bet like this?

--Dave.

[dozer]

definately 3-bet this. only 2 hands beat you here. Villain can easily have a lower flush not just a higher one. 16 vpip after 141 hands dowsn't necessarily mean villain is that tight preflop, he could be just running cold.

[therockofgibraltar]

I used to fold QTs UTG+2 but nowadays I call if already one limper so I guess that's ok.

3-bet the river, call if he caps.

[Webster]

I'll also 3 bet the river,


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[einbert]

[ QUOTE ]
Well... I've been betting a lot of these, and getting a lot of calls. Is it good or bad to get like 3 calls when you make a bet like this?

[/ QUOTE ]
I think betting this flop does a lot for you, besides just the possibility of taking down the pot immediately.

-Gives you a chance to buy the button (especially since you only have to fold out one person to get there, and he is tight)
-Gives you a better chance to get a free river card if you don't hit anything on the turn
-Has a decent chance of getting better hands to fold (K-high, A-high, underpairs to the board, bottom pair, possibly middle pair though less likely) which of course is going to increase your already strong equity in this pot
-Last of all, it misrepresents your hand in case you do hit one of your probable ten outs

So I would say that getting called in three spots when you make this bet isn't necessarily "good" or "bad" but in any case I like leading out here.

[karitek]

[ QUOTE ]
I 3bet/CC on the river. I don't see what he could have that beats you that wouldn't warrant a flop bet when checked to, except maybe A4s or K4s. I would expect A8s and K8s to bet the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well anyone else who runner-runnered this flush would have probably checked the flop then cold-called 2 on the turn.

My question, is what would you put him on if he doesn't have a higher flush than you? Is he the type of player that would limp in MP1 with 87s or lower? If so, then definitely cap. But if he's been showing down more solid hands, than I think I'd call. His betting points to a flush. Maybe I'm being too weak tight too.

Also, I'm betting the flop. You have 8.5 outs (i think - 3 overcard, 1.5 BDFD, 4 gutshot). You can clean up your overcard outs, and maybe buy the button.

[grjr]

I was going to say 3 bet the river but after looking at the flop and turn again I don't think it's a good idea. Villain is 16% and aggressive. Would he limp in with 87s and if he did would he check the flop as last to act? I don't think so.

That means the only hands he could have that we beat would be 76s and lower. Would a 16% limp in with those hands? Doubtful. It loooks more like A7s to me and if it is we're getting capped on the river.

[grjr]

One thing I forgot to add. When I'm in Villain's position on the river I wouldn't raise with the 7 or 8 high flush. I would go for the overcall which would also keep me from being reraised by the nut flush. If I have the nut flush then I hope to see the river capped.

[einbert]

[ QUOTE ]
One thing I forgot to add. When I'm in Villain's position on the river I wouldn't raise with the 7 or 8 high flush. I would go for the overcall which would also keep me from being reraised by the nut flush. If I have the nut flush then I hope to see the river capped.

[/ QUOTE ]

With only one more player behind you I think this is a mistake.

[grjr]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
One thing I forgot to add. When I'm in Villain's position on the river I wouldn't raise with the 7 or 8 high flush. I would go for the overcall which would also keep me from being reraised by the nut flush. If I have the nut flush then I hope to see the river capped.

[/ QUOTE ]

With only one more player behind you I think this is a mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]

If I call and UTG folds I've lost 1BB (if I'm ahead). If UTG calls I break even. If I raise then UTG will most likely fold. If I raise and get reraised am I going to fold? I don't think you can at this level. So when I lose to the higher flush I lose TWO additional BB.

You may say the odds of being over-flushed aren't that great but if you look how the hand played out then it wouldn't be unreasonable to suspect that Hero here also had a flush. If he does then most likely it's higher than our 7 high.

So it comes down to I'm risking missing out on 1 BB in order to possibly save losing 3 BB. I think it's a good play so that's the way I play it. If I'm wrong then so be it.

[RaiNz]

[ QUOTE ]

You may say the odds of being over-flushed aren't that great but if you look how the hand played out then it wouldn't be unreasonable to suspect that Hero here also had a flush. If he does then most likely it's higher than our 7 high.


[/ QUOTE ]

What 7 high? We have a Q high flush.

[mmbt0ne]

I bet the flop and call the river.

This is a classic flop bet that most people miss. I could swear that I knew of a good example like this in SSHE, but in my short perusing I couldn't find it. You'll just have to trust me. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[Jakesta]

[ QUOTE ]


I could swear that I knew of a good example like this in SSHE, but in my short perusing I couldn't find it. You'll just have to trust me. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

It's in the overcards section.

[mmbt0ne]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">En réponse à:</font><hr />
</font><blockquote><font class="small">En réponse à:</font><hr />


I could swear that I knew of a good example like this in SSHE, but in my short perusing I couldn't find it. You'll just have to trust me. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

It's in the overcards section.

[/ QUOTE ]

Awesome. Do you have a page number? This is really pissing me off.

[Jakesta]

[ QUOTE ]

Awesome. Do you have a page number? This is really pissing me off.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually I lied. It's not in the overcards section It's the KJ example on page 139, in the evaluating drawing hands section. I think that this is the most similar example. Let me know if this what you were looking for.

[grjr]

[ QUOTE ]
I bet the flop and call the river.

This is a classic flop bet that most people miss. I could swear that I knew of a good example like this in SSHE, but in my short perusing I couldn't find it. You'll just have to trust me. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you possibly thinking of the one where we're holding T9 and the flop is A76? They recommend raising there to help clear your 10 and 9 outs.

[Jakesta]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I bet the flop and call the river.

This is a classic flop bet that most people miss. I could swear that I knew of a good example like this in SSHE, but in my short perusing I couldn't find it. You'll just have to trust me. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you possibly thinking of the one where we're holding T9 and the flop is A76? They recommend raising there to help clear your 10 and 9 outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll repost this:

t's the KJ example on page 139, in the evaluating drawing hands section. I think that this is the most similar example. Let me know if this what you were looking for.

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

You may say the odds of being over-flushed aren't that great but if you look how the hand played out then it wouldn't be unreasonable to suspect that Hero here also had a flush. If he does then most likely it's higher than our 7 high.


[/ QUOTE ]

What 7 high? We have a Q high flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm pretty sure that he meant to say villain instead of hero. It happens.

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
I bet the flop and call the river.

This is a classic flop bet that most people miss. I could swear that I knew of a good example like this in SSHE, but in my short perusing I couldn't find it. You'll just have to trust me. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, thanks man. The discussion of outs by some good posters above us in the thread show me that I've got room to bet this flop.

I'm going to have to improve this. I've just gone through the PF section in SSHE now, and I'm into the flop section again. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

--Dave.

[Dave G.]

What are we scared of here? Easy river 3-bet. For all we know, he could have limped in with AT, KT, QT, JT, TT, or A9, J9, J8, 76, 65, ... etc etc the list goes on and on.

The chances that we are beaten by a bigger flush are something like 10%. Given the very wide range of hands he could be playing this way, not raising here is missing at least one bet. Now imagine if he has a lower flush than ours, which is more than twice as likely as his having a higher flush. You're missing 2 bets (because he should be capping this).

I 3-bet this every time, without even thinking about it.