I believe there is an obvious play to make on this river...

[Bigwig]

To maximize EV. However, I'm not always right. So I'd like to see some responses. And I want to see what kind of thought process you make, so I can further separate the good players from the medicore on this here board. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

Tell me your thoughts. Party $50

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t15 (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

SB (t955)
Hero (t1030)
UTG (t950)
UTG+1 (t475)
UTG+2 (t1190)
MP1 (t1440)
MP2 (t960)
MP3 (t835)
CO (t500)
Button (t1665)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, MP3 calls t15, CO calls t15, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (t60) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t50</font>, MP3 folds, CO calls t50, SB folds.

Turn: (t160) 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t125</font>, CO calls t125.

River: (t410) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero???

[Freudian]

I would bet 200 or so. I don't want to scare off someone with a J (or someone with a flushdraw with 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif or 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif that just might call). Also someone who has you beat will let you know in a big way. I think a 200 bet is big enough to prevent anyone from trying an all-in bluff on a busted draw.

[Bigwig]

A hint (if you need it): The CO's stack size.

[microbet]

Check? He wants to bluff off his little stack?

Crap, I don't wanna be on the sucky list.

[Freudian]

[ QUOTE ]
A hint (if you need it): The CO's stack size.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ah.

A bet of 200 still sounds fine to me.

[BDarch]

[ QUOTE ]
Check? He wants to bluff off his little stack?

Crap, I don't wanna be on the sucky list.

[/ QUOTE ]

me either so i'll wait til someone else posts and then copy his answer /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[Bigwig]

Hahah.

I think I specified that I'm not always right. I just happen to think there's a clear play here. And it has a lot to do with the CO's stack size.

But I'm going to suggest you're an idiot for disagreeing.

[Bigwig]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Check? He wants to bluff off his little stack?

Crap, I don't wanna be on the sucky list.

[/ QUOTE ]

me either so i'll wait til someone else posts and then copy his answer /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

You guys are giving me too much credit, or assuming I'm somebody else. Like a poster who's name starts with an Irie and ends with a guy.

I'm not trying to set anybody up. I simply want to hear answers and reasoning.

[Freudian]

Perhaps a 100 bet gets more money out of this guy but there is no way I will check this river and have him check behind me with 77. He has so few chips left that he will go to showdown with very marginal hands.

[BDarch]

[ QUOTE ]
Hahah.

I think I specified that I'm not always right. I just happen to think there's a clear play here. And it has a lot to do with the CO's stack size.

But I'm going to suggest you're an idiot for disagreeing.

[/ QUOTE ]

could it have something to do with how the CO lost half his stack in level 1?

[jeffraider]

I think I like a push, honestly. And don't bet enough to just put CO all in, push your entire stack in for psychological effect. I think that'll get called more often than not.

[Bigwig]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Hahah.

I think I specified that I'm not always right. I just happen to think there's a clear play here. And it has a lot to do with the CO's stack size.

But I'm going to suggest you're an idiot for disagreeing.

[/ QUOTE ]

could it have something to do with how the CO lost half his stack in level 1?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know how he lost his stack. I'm too busy multi-tabling, smoking, drinking, and watching television.

[Myst]

Id put him all in, because short stacks tend to get desperate, and if he was willing to call you with a jack/ pocketpair on the flop and turn, hes already committed himself to believing you do not have the 9. An all in also makes it look like you are trying to want him to fold as well. So PUSHHH.

[ekky]

I'd be inclined to bet an amount that leaves him with some chips, but not too many.

A lot of players are fearful of calling bets that will knock them out, but are a lot more inclined to call bets that will leave them with the proverbial "chip and a chair"

given that he had 500 and he has already paid 185... I probly bet enough to leave him with 100 chips. The psychological 3 digit figure looks a lot more appealing to a short stack then a 2 digit figure.

Therefore I'd bet 215.

[SlackerMcFly]

Hero pushes all-in (for psychological effect)
CO insta-calls with JJ

Final result? Hero makes the right play and loses anyway, loads up another $50 and gets on with it.

Alternate play: Hero checks, CO pushes with JJ, Hero folds.

Villain plays you either way here, and no bet will push him off his set on the flop. Folding is the only +EV option under the "alternate play".

Just a noob's guess. Slacker

[Bigwig]

CO is on a draw. Perhaps KJ, QJ, or AJ. But a draw seems much more likely. If he has a made hand, he cannot continue to simply call street after street without J9 or JJ. Also, I'm obviously not folding the river to an all-in.

There seems to be little chance that he'll call an all-in with a worse hand. Maybe, but not likely. If he's got a 9, or one of the aforementioned hands, he'll bet. He'll also bet on a busted draw, because my check will show weakness (I fear a 9) and he'll need the chips.

Therefore, I check/call any bet.

[ilya]

First off, I think you should think about this situation as though you had the nuts, since there's no way you're folding for 300 more in this pot. That said....
obviously checking is better if he has a busted draw. he is almost certain to fold if you bet, but - considering how badly he needs this pot - fairly likely to bluff if you check. however, it doesn't really smell like a draw to me...i would have expected him to semi-bluff raise on either the flop or the turn. but, on the other hand, looking at card combinations outside of the betting context makes a draw quite likely.
if he has an underpair like TT or 88, betting is better. he's come this far, and is unlikely to fold now with the pot so large and his stack so small. if you check, though, he's unlikely to bet...his hand would have too much showdown value to make it a good bluff, but would be too weak to value-bet. it's plausible that he would play an underpair this way, so that's a point for betting.
if he has a Jack, betting is a bit better. he'll call with the weaker Jacks as well as the stronger ones, but may well check some of the weaker ones behind you if you check. the fact that stronger Jacks are less likely than weaker ones tilts the decision even further in favor of betting.
if he slowplayed AA-KK or even QQ preflop, and is calling down because he puts you on a Jack or a 9, but not a draw, then I think betting is marginally better. I say marginally because, although he's almost certain to call if you bet, he's also pretty likely to bet if you check. But this hand range category is unlikely. He would probably have raised preflop or at some point later in the hand.
If he has a 9, you're screwed either way, but I suppose checking is marginally better as there is a slight chance he'll be afraid of losing you and will bet less than an all-in. however, i think a 9 is actually quite likely here, so that little edge is definitely worth something.
on balance i would lean towards checking, but I think it's close.

EDIT: By "bet" I mean "put him all-in." IMO, in this spot, if he's calling 100 or 200, he's calling the full 300 too.

[SlackerMcFly]

One of the funniest posts ever. Illustrates the concept of parylization by anylization perfectly. Ni Han ilya!

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
One of the funniest posts ever. Illustrates the concept of parylization by anylization perfectly. Ni Han ilya!

[/ QUOTE ]

whaddaya mean, i said i'd check! /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

if anything i think that my analysis in that post is kinda superficial.

[curtains]

Honestly I would bet something....these idiots have something too often, and he has so few chips he will call with anything, but might not bluff with nothing or bet with something. I mean if the [censored] has a flush draw why the hell would he wait till the river to bluff instead of semibluff flop or turn.

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]

I mean if the [censored] has a flush draw why the hell would he wait till the river to bluff instead of semibluff flop or turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

that's what I was thinking. i am having a hard time putting him on anything besides an underpair or a 9.

[microbet]

Buh, I thought you were trying to be tricky.

[SlackerMcFly]

[ QUOTE ]
whaddaya mean, i said i'd check!


[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry, missed the obvious. Got caught up in the AA, KKK, Mom's recipe/Life cereal coupon portion of your post. My bad.

[microbet]

Dammit, that's what I said! Next time I'm not playing!

[Bigwig]

[ QUOTE ]
I mean if the [censored] has a flush draw why the hell would he wait till the river to bluff instead of semibluff flop or turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Cause they're idiots. This is a $50, champ, not a $200.

He had the flush draw. He predictably bluffed. And lost.

I did this two other times tonight and it worked beautifully.

22 tournaments
9 cashes
6 firsts

World Champ I will be.

[jcm4ccc]

I'll try without looking at the other responses. I believe that CO is either working on a busted draw, or has a pocket pair (such as 88) and doesn't trust that you have him beat. If it's the first case, then what you bet doesn't mattter. He's going to fold. So you might as well assume that it's the second case.

The CO has acted skittish throughout this betting. If you put him all-in, he may fold. So I think you want to make a bet that he can't resist, a bet that looks kind of weak but commits a large proportion of his chips. He has already called off 185 of his chips and has 315 chips left.

I would repeat your turn bet. I would bet 125 chips. I don't think he would fold for that if he has a pocket pair. And he may decide that, if he is going to call a 125 chip bet, he might as well go all-in.

[ChipLeader]

[ QUOTE ]

Honestly I would bet something....these idiots have something too often, and he has so few chips he will call with anything, but might not bluff with nothing or bet with something. I mean if the [censored] has a flush draw why the hell would he wait till the river to bluff instead of semibluff flop or turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you missed the beginning, where it says 50.00 buy in. Heres what we know about Villian:
1.) Hes already lost almost half his stack and its the first level.
2.) Hes entered a 50.00 SnG, which doesnt mean theyre all poor players but never means theyre all good. In a less confusing sentence, there is a good chance hes bad.
3.) The calling means he is either VERY strong and we'll lose our stack no matter what here, so it doesnt matter how we go about it, or he is weak, be it a flush draw or PP.

You said "I mean if the [censored] has a flush draw why the hell would he wait till the river to bluff instead of semibluff flop or turn."

The reason is simple; the [censored] doesnt think our hero is weak until the check comes. Until this check, villian knwos hes behind but cant lay down a flush draw so he does the typical 50.00 newb play and calls hopin the flush comes and he doesnt have to play any real poker, he can just push his catch.

While the check is often the best move, i dont think its "clearly" the best for all the reasons ilya pointed out, but its definately a right move. I guess youd have to do more math than im willign to do to figure out the odds of him having a call he'll want to showdown vs a hand he'll bet, but Ilya's analysis seems spot on to me.

[adanthar]

I check here very often but it's not automatic. If nothing else, shania should dictate you bet once in a while.

That said, the stack size is a nice variable to go by.

[45suited]

The obvious play is a check / call. He needs the pot badly and there's a good chance that he bluffs off his stack with a busted flush draw. Also possible that he's got an 8Ts and he'll bluff of his stack. Your river check might give him hope that you missed your flush. If he's got the case 9, he's putting all his chips in anyway and it's just a matter of who's got the better kicker.

Okay, I see the answer is already posted... just ignore me. /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[octaveshift]

I'd try to induce a bluff here, by employing a feigned Post Oak.

I'd throw out a tiny bet, and wait for him to shove his chips in over the top.

(I might even check. Depends on my read up until then.)

[Hood]

[ QUOTE ]
CO is on a draw. Perhaps KJ, QJ, or AJ. But a draw seems much more likely. If he has a made hand, he cannot continue to simply call street after street without J9 or JJ. Also, I'm obviously not folding the river to an all-in.

There seems to be little chance that he'll call an all-in with a worse hand. Maybe, but not likely. If he's got a 9, or one of the aforementioned hands, he'll bet. He'll also bet on a busted draw, because my check will show weakness (I fear a 9) and he'll need the chips.

Therefore, I check/call any bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

How would you play if a 3rd spade fell on the river?

[sng-sam]

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that not only does co have a busted draw but he puts you on one as well. I think that if you check the river he tries to take the pot a: becuase he so committed and b: becuase he thinks you missed your draw. meaning c: ship it bitches!

SAM

Who doesn't want to be on the sucky list.

[Bigwig]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
CO is on a draw. Perhaps KJ, QJ, or AJ. But a draw seems much more likely. If he has a made hand, he cannot continue to simply call street after street without J9 or JJ. Also, I'm obviously not folding the river to an all-in.

There seems to be little chance that he'll call an all-in with a worse hand. Maybe, but not likely. If he's got a 9, or one of the aforementioned hands, he'll bet. He'll also bet on a busted draw, because my check will show weakness (I fear a 9) and he'll need the chips.

Therefore, I check/call any bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

How would you play if a 3rd spade fell on the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

I would probably check/call. The pot odds are simply too good. It is possible that he's got a J, or a straight draw, or a mid-pair. But I don't know. I have to be in the moment to see how I'd feel.

It'd be great if that spade on the river filled me up. /images/graemlins/wink.gif