First Hand Post...Thoughts? [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

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djg40

06-15-2005, 02:36 AM

No reads; thoughts on all streets appreciated. Thanks.

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, 1 fold, Hero calls, 3 folds, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (5 SB) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif (5 players)
SB bets, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 raises, Hero calls, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (7.50 BB) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 bets, UTG+2 raises, Hero 3-bets, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls.

River: (22.50 BB) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, Hero ???

Final Pot: 22.50 BB

dozer

06-15-2005, 02:43 AM

raise the flop for value, you have a straight flush draw and 2 overcards and the whole field trapped. No one is folding here I am pretty sure.

River sux, but I think you should bet it anyways. You will get called by a lot of weaker hands.

PokerSparky

06-15-2005, 02:44 AM

Horrible river card! SB and BB cold called 3 bets on the turn!?

I'd check the river, but I'm sure a lot of people will claim that's weak tight.

djg40

06-15-2005, 02:45 AM

If I raised, the whole field would have been faced with calling two more bets. I thought at least one, if not two, would fold. As it stood, I figured all of them would call the raise, if I just called.

SoftcoreRevolt

06-15-2005, 02:48 AM

I'd 3 bet the flop, you have a flush draw, a gutshot straight draw(and a a weak backdoor straight draw as well) and two over cards, which don't seem to be so hot.

Let's call it 13 outs, against this big of a field we have a load of equity, so raise.

Turn is perfect.
I think I just check this river. All the diamonds on the board are low, and we just have the jack.

dozer

06-15-2005, 02:53 AM

You know how people always complain about how players at .50 1. never fold when they get a bad beat?
Well, here is the time to take advantage of that. They are rarely folding in a pot this size for 2 small bets, getting someone to fold hands that have you dominated wouldn't hurt either so if you do hit a J or 10 , it may still be ebough to win.

Aaron W.

06-15-2005, 02:54 AM

[ QUOTE ]
No reads; thoughts on all streets appreciated. Thanks.

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, 1 fold, Hero calls, 3 folds, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (5 SB) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif (5 players)
SB bets, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 raises, Hero calls, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (7.50 BB) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 bets, UTG+2 raises, Hero 3-bets, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls.

River: (22.50 BB) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, Hero ???

Final Pot: 22.50 BB

[/ QUOTE ]

Go ahead and 3-bet that flop. You've got a very strong draw and lots of people who will make it worth your investment.

Without reads, I'm going to check because I'm going to be unhappy about paying off a check-raise. In fact, with reads, I'm probably still checking unless they're all loose donks who will pay of with weak hands and won't check-raise without the nuts.

SoftcoreRevolt

06-15-2005, 03:08 AM

Well they certaintly aren't going to call TWO big bets on the turn if you hit your flush, so at least get as many of them to come along now when they are capable of calling bets.

Wetdog

06-15-2005, 03:09 AM

I 3bet the flop. I think that you will have to lead the turn because they will "check to the raiser." You'll have to lead the flop too to a smaller crowd.

3betting the flop will change everything.

einbert

06-15-2005, 05:21 AM

Raise the flop, bet the river.

einbert

06-15-2005, 05:23 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Without reads, I'm going to check because I'm going to be unhappy about paying off a check-raise. In fact, with reads, I'm probably still checking unless they're all loose donks who will pay of with weak hands and won't check-raise without the nuts.

[/ QUOTE ]
This pot is huge, they are paying off with a wide range of hands (including hands less than flushes and noone is folding a flush here ever). Checking here is a pretty big error IMO.

Duerig

06-15-2005, 07:52 AM

I would 3bet the flop and bet the river, call a raise.

BlackRain

06-15-2005, 07:54 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Raise the flop, bet the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

DocMartin

06-15-2005, 02:05 PM

I just call the flop, I dont think you want to blast anyone out of the pot since you are on a draw. 3 Potential folds here sucks.
Turn looks good
As bad as these players are, I think you are beat here and wouldnt blame you for checking although I think the bet is better.

Aaron W.

06-15-2005, 02:56 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Without reads, I'm going to check because I'm going to be unhappy about paying off a check-raise. In fact, with reads, I'm probably still checking unless they're all loose donks who will pay of with weak hands and won't check-raise without the nuts.

[/ QUOTE ]
This pot is huge, they are paying off with a wide range of hands (including hands less than flushes and noone is folding a flush here ever). Checking here is a pretty big error IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

While you're right about them calling with a wide range of hands, there's not such a wide range of hands that will call three bets cold on the turn (SB and BB), or bet-call-two (UTG+1) or raise-call (UTG+2). The one card J-flush isn't that spectacular in this spot.

theghost

06-15-2005, 04:59 PM

call the flop, btr

TheWorstPlayer

06-15-2005, 05:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If I raised, the whole field would have been faced with calling two more bets. I thought at least one, if not two, would fold.

[/ QUOTE ]
Have you been noticing how these people play? I'm gonna go out on a limb and guess that this is indicative of how these people have been playing:
[ QUOTE ]
Turn: (7.50 BB) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 bets, UTG+2 raises, Hero 3-bets, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't think anyone's folding on the flop.

AlmightyJay

06-15-2005, 05:21 PM

My first instinct is to check this river.

But might this be a good spot for bet/fold? I highly doubt anything you beat is raising you on this river. But you might get calls by weaker flushes. Of course, you have to be sure no one is capable of bluff c/r'ing the river.

grjr

06-15-2005, 05:30 PM

Ok, so what do all you "river-betters" think the SB and BB have? I'm thinking it's at least 50% that both of them have us beat and about 90% that at least one has us beat. Therefore, I'm checking the river.

silkyslim

06-15-2005, 06:02 PM

i would like to check the river

Redd

06-15-2005, 06:03 PM

I'd raise the flop for value and protection.

IMO, after two 3-cold callers this riv is a straightforward check.

TomBrooks

06-15-2005, 06:58 PM

I'd check this river. From the turn action, I'm afraid someone has the A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif or Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif and wants to checkraise.

dozer

06-15-2005, 07:57 PM

this is why I bet the river. You will be called by anyone with a diamond or even a non diamond straight. Only 3 diamonds beat you, the rest you have beat. If you bet and are checkraised you have to call and lose 2BB extra max . If you check and lose you save 1BB. You only need 2 of the opponents in the pot to call with a weaker hand to make this bet correct. I think all 4 will call in a pot this big and if you lose it is not a big deal because the value of betting this river is higher than saving a bet or 2.

TheWorstPlayer

06-15-2005, 10:43 PM

I pretty much agree with this. I think it's a river bet. If someone had the ace of trump, he/she probably would have bet the river for fear of it checking through since it's such a scary board. Probably same is true for K, although less so. Also, someone with the K or Q is unlikely to check/raise. I see people c/c in these situations all the time. If you know that no one has the ace (which seems very likely to me) then you stand to win ~2BB on average when you bet and win (we can expect ~2 callers, probably?) and you probably only lose 1BB when you bet and lose. So you only have to win 35% of the time to make a bet correct. And that is almost certainly the case here.

djg40

06-16-2005, 12:11 AM

I ended up checking the river after the fourth diamond hit. Here is my thinking. I couldn't see what the blinds would call three bets cold with that didn't include the Ace or King of diamonds. Then, the Raise/Call from UTG+1 smelled like he just picked up the flush draw. So, I just checked right behind.

However, SB turned over a straight - 4 to 9, the BB turned over two pair ( /images/graemlins/confused.gif), and UTG+1 turned over a straight - 4 to 9, and my hand is good.

I still like my check.