20+2 Party SnG Leak?

[ChipLeader]

Im a 50% money finisher for 10.00 SnGs (129/129), and was 5/6 in the random 20s i played. I decided to move up because i was so consistent on the easy 10s and wanted to use my time more lucratively, also id done decently at the 20s. Ive played about 10 since and continue to get 4th, with only 2 money wins (both 1st luckily). I was wondering if anyone else has made this transition and if they can identify some of the most prominent differences between the 2. Im playing the same style but i seem to end up losin in the final 4 even with a decent stack. Any thoughts on possible changes i need to make, i realize you dont know my style but anyone who has climbed the ladder is probably aware of the differences between the limits that might have somethin to do with the sudden losses (or maybe its just a [censored] streak)

[Karak567]

[ QUOTE ]
Im a 50% money finisher for 10.00 SnGs (129/129), and was 5/6 in the random 20s i played. I decided to move up because i was so consistent on the easy 10s and wanted to use my time more lucratively, also id done decently at the 20s. Ive played about 10 since and continue to get 4th, with only 2 money wins (both 1st luckily). I was wondering if anyone else has made this transition and if they can identify some of the most prominent differences between the 2. Im playing the same style but i seem to end up losin in the final 4 even with a decent stack. Any thoughts on possible changes i need to make, i realize you dont know my style but anyone who has climbed the ladder is probably aware of the differences between the limits that might have somethin to do with the sudden losses (or maybe its just a [censored] streak)

[/ QUOTE ]

Two first place finishes out of 10 games?

I'm not sure you can even call that a bad streak.

I would just call that something normal that happens to me like once a week, and I am a winning player.

Please, 10 games is no sample size.

Hell 100 games is not a big enough sample size.

Play 100 times this amount, then we can talk.

[HonestIago15]

Not many differences really, just more money to win. Your sample size isn't nearly big enough. Talk to the best players on this board and many of them will tell you streaks in the mid to high teens of finishing out of the money. It happens and is called variance. Sometimes the statistics don't fly your way. I'd say keep practicing and try to get a few hundred 10's under your belt before you move up.

[ChipLeader]

NL Hold'em $20 Buy-in + $2 Entry Fee Trny:13100430 Level:7
Congratulations,RedLikeABook! You won $100.

NL Hold'em $20 Buy-in + $2 Entry Fee Trny:13078250 Level:9
Congratulations,RedLikeABook! You won $100.

Lol, was playing those when i posted but they worked out.
I think it was just a bad streak before. I realize 10 isnt many but when its the first 10 in the transition it gives a player doubts or makes him wonder whats changed. Anyway, i think it was just bad streak, thanks for the input.

[Karak567]

[ QUOTE ]
NL Hold'em $20 Buy-in + $2 Entry Fee Trny:13100430 Level:7
Congratulations,RedLikeABook! You won $100.

NL Hold'em $20 Buy-in + $2 Entry Fee Trny:13078250 Level:9
Congratulations,RedLikeABook! You won $100.

Lol, was playing those when i posted but they worked out.
I think it was just a bad streak before. I realize 10 isnt many but when its the first 10 in the transition it gives a player doubts or makes him wonder whats changed. Anyway, i think it was just bad streak, thanks for the input.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you think dropping 8 out of 10 is a bad streak...

I fear for you when a REAL bad streak happens.

[smb394]

What's funny is that the 2 out of the 10 that weren't losses, you came in first. But, yes, as these other posters have said, it's all part of variance. It's something even the best players have to cope with, no matter how well you play.

As someone switching from multitabling limit ring games to SNGs, I'd like to emphasize even more that your reaction to variance (and its corresponding influence on your bankroll) is vitally important. Good luck, and see you at the 22s. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Sidekick]

If I'm reading your post correctly and you have only 129 SNGs at the 10s? Then I would like to give you a cautious word of warning.

If these are your first SNGs, then it is quite probable that you are actually running hot right now. An ITM of 50% is most likely not sustainaable over the long run.

Perhaps it will never happen to you, but be prepared for streaks of tournaments lasting over 150 games where you lose money. If you play long enough be ready for 500+ game sets where you lose money or just break even. Streaks of finishing OTM in the teens are not that unusual. So when you finish OTM 14 times in a row, don't post asking if that is the worst anyone has ever heard of, because it's not even close. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

Variance is a part of the game. That's always the thing when you first move up, you can't always tell if you are playing well and winning due to skill, playing well and losing due to variance, playing well and breaking even, or playing poorly but winning and thinking this new level is a cinch.

If you already knew all of this then you have my apologies.

Best of luck at the tables.

[ChipLeader]

I know about variance, but ive played MANY MANY Sngs and havent had more than a 10 game losing streak, and honestly i dont think losing 10 straight would be "variance", i think it would imply the limit is wrong for you. The following are my stats according to Poker Prophecy, which is only up to the time when this program came out and only includes my PartyPoker stats:

Games played 276
Wins 135 (48.91%)
Losses 141 (51.09%)
Average Buy-In $10.67
Players with better winning percentage 70252
Players with worse winning percentage 449892
$30 Table: 0 wins / 1 losses / 0% wins
$20 Table: 8 wins / 10 losses / 44.44% wins
$10 Table: 126 wins / 128 losses / 49.61% wins
$5 Table: 1 wins / 2 losses / 33.33% wins

These havent been fully updated obviously, but looking at the consistency and my vice grip on my BR you can see why im concerned im leaking in the 20s and need to fix it or else go back to the 10s. I now have some confidence since winning earlier that it was just flukes. Thanks all

[Karak567]

[ QUOTE ]
I know about variance, but ive played MANY MANY Sngs and havent had more than a 10 game losing streak, and honestly i dont think losing 10 straight would be "variance", i think it would imply the limit is wrong for you. The following are my stats according to Poker Prophecy, which is only up to the time when this program came out and only includes my PartyPoker stats:

Games played 276
Wins 135 (48.91%)
Losses 141 (51.09%)
Average Buy-In $10.67
Players with better winning percentage 70252
Players with worse winning percentage 449892
$30 Table: 0 wins / 1 losses / 0% wins
$20 Table: 8 wins / 10 losses / 44.44% wins
$10 Table: 126 wins / 128 losses / 49.61% wins
$5 Table: 1 wins / 2 losses / 33.33% wins

These havent been fully updated obviously, but looking at the consistency and my vice grip on my BR you can see why im concerned im leaking in the 20s and need to fix it or else go back to the 10s. I now have some confidence since winning earlier that it was just flukes. Thanks all

[/ QUOTE ]

I've had three 18+-buyin drops in the last 2 months, one being a 22 buy-in drop.

They weren't my fault.

[Geordie Ramone]

Nice job of not listening.

[lastchance]

You can easily lose 10 straight. Very easily. You've gotten very, very lucky. While you probably are a good player, you really shouldn't expect a 50% ROI. Only the top .1% in the world have a 50% ROI at the $11's.

[ChipLeader]

I guess i just have trouble believing you can drop 18 straight sit and gos at the lower limits without having some sort of a leak. I know bad beats happen and they can happen in batches but 18... i dunno. If you have PokerProphecy id be interested in knowing your stats, or if you play Party i could look em up for you.

[Freudian]

[ QUOTE ]
I guess i just have trouble believing you can drop 18 straight sit and gos at the lower limits without having some sort of a leak. I know bad beats happen and they can happen in batches but 18... i dunno. If you have PokerProphecy id be interested in knowing your stats, or if you play Party i could look em up for you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Stay away from the $20+2s. This (http://web.telia.com/~u18112987/medontlike.jpg) awaits you.

Beware. BEWARE!

My old pokerprophecy name is Pseudofold. I'm not going to share my now active names.

[lastchance]

Well, maybe not 18 straight OOTM's. It's easy to drop 20 buy-in's, and very easy to drop 10.

[ChipLeader]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, maybe not 18 straight OOTM's. It's easy to drop 20 buy-in's, and very easy to drop 10.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh i totally agree there, but thats why i play SnGs. Ive dropped 10-15 BuyIns a couple times but it only takes 2-3 firsts to get it all back, and thats what has always happened.

[DasLeben]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I guess i just have trouble believing you can drop 18 straight sit and gos at the lower limits without having some sort of a leak. I know bad beats happen and they can happen in batches but 18... i dunno. If you have PokerProphecy id be interested in knowing your stats, or if you play Party i could look em up for you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Stay away from the $20+2s. This (http://web.telia.com/~u18112987/medontlike.jpg) awaits you.

Beware. BEWARE!

My old pokerprophecy name is Pseudofold. I'm not going to share my now active names.

[/ QUOTE ]

Looks kinda like this (http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2005-1/922713/meh.jpg) one. Of course, I don't play a million per day like most people. I'll step it up when I get the majority of my bankroll back from casino whoring. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Oh, and if that goes to plan...$22s baby! Bwahaha.