Daily Hand Post: a decision with KQs and a flush [Archive]

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jason_t

06-14-2005, 08:11 PM

Let's do an exciting one; the river here is a real mindf[/i]uck.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: I am UTG+1 with Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif. UTG+2 posts a blind of $2.
UTG calls, I raise, 4 folds, CO 3-bets, 3 folds, UTG caps, I call, CO calls.

Flop: (14.50 SB) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 7/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 players)
UTG bets, I raise, CO folds, UTG 3-bets, I cap, UTG calls.

Turn: (11.25 BB) T/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
UTG bets, I raise, UTG 3-bets, I cap, UTG calls.

River: (19.25 BB) 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
UTG checks, I....

Klepton

06-14-2005, 08:12 PM

bet/call

bakku

06-14-2005, 08:14 PM

I'm not raising the flop

CallMeIshmael

06-14-2005, 08:15 PM

[ QUOTE ]
bet/call

[/ QUOTE ]

CallMeIshmael

06-14-2005, 08:15 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not raising the flop

[/ QUOTE ]

jason_t

06-14-2005, 08:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not raising the flop

[/ QUOTE ]

River?

DeathDonkey

06-14-2005, 08:19 PM

I really don't like the flop raise. I don't see how I could check behind there but if he checkraises it doesn't seem like you need to pay off his hand is so obvious. He could also have the big flush and be scared of the board pairing but that would be tough.

-DeathDonkey

admiralfluff

06-14-2005, 08:21 PM

reads help, but i bet call without them. I don't trust LRR's from unknowns so I bet/call. I like the flop raise a lot, you could easily be buying yourself some outs.

bakku

06-14-2005, 08:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm not raising the flop

[/ QUOTE ]

River?

[/ QUOTE ]

Against an unknown, bet/call

Klepton

06-14-2005, 08:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm not raising the flop

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

incorrect, he got the CO to fold, and on the slight chance that no one has an ace, he could win UI

plus, value

molawn2mo

06-14-2005, 08:26 PM

this little girl votes for check behind. what hand calls/raises the river that you beat? do want to open yourself up to a river bluff raise?

CallMeIshmael

06-14-2005, 08:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]
incorrect, he got the CO to fold, and on the slight chance that no one has an ace, he could win UI

[/ QUOTE ]

How often do you expect a 3-way capped pot with an ace on board, for KQ high to be shown down as the winner?

Klepton

06-14-2005, 08:29 PM

ok fine, not really a smart comment by me, but there is still value in raising

bakku

06-14-2005, 08:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm not raising the flop

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

incorrect, he got the CO to fold, and on the slight chance that no one has an ace, he could win UI

plus, value

[/ QUOTE ]

i hope you're kidding

SippinSoma

06-14-2005, 08:31 PM

[ QUOTE ]
this little girl votes for check behind. what hand calls/raises the river that you beat? do want to open yourself up to a river bluff raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

Would you pick this as a spot to throw in a river bluff raise?

SippinSoma

06-14-2005, 08:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]

incorrect, he got the CO to fold, and on the slight chance that no one has an ace, he could win UI

plus, value

[/ QUOTE ]

This isn't 30/60 kid. Go back to swimming with the fishes.

admiralfluff

06-14-2005, 08:33 PM

I like the raise not for winning UI, but getting the CO to fold significantly increases his chances of winning if a K or Q drops.

Entity

06-14-2005, 08:37 PM

molawn2mo

06-14-2005, 08:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
this little girl votes for check behind. what hand calls/raises the river that you beat? do want to open yourself up to a river bluff raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

Would you pick this as a spot to throw in a river bluff raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

nah... but op seems to be taking a line in this hand that is consistant with villain being a maniac or at least LAG. after all, LRR can occasionally have AA.

but the primary question is what hand can villain have that calls the river bet and loses to op? anyone?

damaniac

06-14-2005, 08:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I like the raise not for winning UI, but getting the CO to fold significantly increases his chances of winning if a K or Q drops.

[/ QUOTE ]

How does that work exactly?

If we hit a K/Q and no one has the A, we have (effectively) TP/TK. No overcards can beat us, no one can have a pair with a better kicker (unless they already had the A). So this makes like O sense, unless I'm missing something.

damaniac

06-14-2005, 08:40 PM

What about the flop cap? Do you think we get a free card enough to justify it? I don't know what the math is on that, but I'd be surprised if, given the action, we get one very often.

SippinSoma

06-14-2005, 08:40 PM

AcKh., assuming an average 2/4 player.

GuyOnTilt

06-14-2005, 08:40 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I like the raise not for winning UI, but getting the CO to fold significantly increases his chances of winning if a K or Q drops.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hands CO would fold that would make a difference this way: KK and QQ. If CO has exactly KK AND folds it AND UTG has exactly a pocket pair below QQ that did not hit a set, he picks up 4 extra outs. If CO has exactly QQ AND folds it AND UTG has exactly a pocket pair below QQ that did not hit a set, he picks up 1 extra out. Given all the qualifiers and their extreme unliklihood and the fact that we hold KQ, which cuts down the chances of CO having KK or QQ by 50%, this reason for raising is no greater than negligible.

GoT

nfscreech

06-14-2005, 08:41 PM

bet/call

admiralfluff

06-14-2005, 08:42 PM

his raise is folding COs possible KK or QQ holdings. The raise will win him the pot very rarely, and on it's own is not worth a whole SB. Couple it with the flush draw, and possibility of getting a free card, and I like it.

damaniac

06-14-2005, 08:45 PM

Along with GoT's reasoning as to why it is incredibly thin to begin with, you have to factor in those (probably many) times you instead get three-bet. And if UTG has an A (which he will a good portion of the time) it doesn't matter anyway.

gaming_mouse

06-14-2005, 08:57 PM

Check.

There are 3 combinations of AA and 9 combinations of AK, so other things being equal AK is more likely. But other things are not equal. Only an uncommonly aggressive player takes this line with AK, while this is the way that most people will play AA, IMO. And to bet here you risk 2 to win 1.

Add in the (admittedly unlikely) chance that you're up against a better flush and I think the check is pretty easy.

gm

Jake (The Snake)

06-14-2005, 09:10 PM

I think checking is correct too. I think this concept...

[ QUOTE ]
And to bet here you risk 2 to win 1.

[/ QUOTE ]

is extremely important and something that is often overlooked. Since there's no chance you are going to fold to a raise (right?) then you have to be good here more than 66% of the time to make betting correct since villain is going to raise virtually 100% of the time with a better hand.

Chris Daddy Cool

06-14-2005, 09:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm not raising the flop

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

incorrect, he got the CO to fold, and on the slight chance that no one has an ace, he could win UI

plus, value

[/ QUOTE ]

i hope you're kidding

[/ QUOTE ]

Mike Gallo

06-14-2005, 09:26 PM

Very interesting hand. At first glance it looks like a clear value bet, however ....lets work backwards....

River ....UTG checks, I.... lets go to the turn to decide UTG bets, I raise, UTG 3-bets, I cap, UTG calls.

What range of hands would he play like this on the turn? Utg has played this like a big hand, a big draw or both.

On to the flop action, 2c, Ax, 7c

UTG bets, I raise, CO folds, UTG 3-bets, I cap, UTG calls I do not like to look for monsters under the bed, however this looks like AA or Ax suited clubs. Discount AK AQ A10 clubs. He could have AJc or A-xc. He also could have 89 clubs or AK AJ AQ with the Ace of trump.

Lets go preflop UTG calls, I raise, 4 folds, CO 3-bets, 3 folds, UTG caps, I call, CO calls.

What reasoning did he have for the limp reraise? A thinking player will limp reraise to punish the loose raisers and weak limpers. The live player will do it with any two cards to build a pot. The live player could limp reraise with a hand like 78 clubs, however in the games I play the limp reraise usually means AA or KK.

Unless this player will limp reraise with hands other then Aces I think you should certainly check the river. He appears like a sneaky enough player that would have the audacity to check raise the river after catching his hand, or with the nut flush.

Lacking any information on the villian, I check.

private joker

06-14-2005, 09:29 PM

The river is a very easy check in my opinion.

As for the flop, I don't like the raise, but I don't think it's terrible either.

molawn2mo

06-14-2005, 09:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]
AcKh., assuming an average 2/4 player.

[/ QUOTE ]

Reading villain's hand as AK is wishful rather than scientific. And, in any event, is AK calling a river bet? Maybe, but that is bad and spewing and I didn;t see a read proclaiming villain as maniac or even LAG. Look... if it walks like a duck...

Point is... to bet the river you need to be certain that he will call with AK, if that, indeed, is his holding.

If you bet the river are you folding to a raise?

I realize this passivity may be viewed as heresy, but, hey, I calls um likes I sees um.

blumpkin22

06-14-2005, 09:37 PM

Devil's advocate: (not saying I disagree with you, because I don't)

Would a full house really try check raising here?

rmarotti

06-14-2005, 09:41 PM

I agree with pretty much everything Klepton has said about this hand.

nepenthe

06-14-2005, 09:55 PM

...check barring overly AG reads in the earlier streets.

private joker

06-14-2005, 10:49 PM

<blockquote>Svar på:<hr />
Devil's advocate: (not saying I disagree with you, because I don't)

Would a full house really try check raising here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes.

aK13

06-14-2005, 10:53 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Devil's advocate: (not saying I disagree with you, because I don't)

Would a full house really try check raising here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course.

I don't understand the bet/calling lines. This is a pretty easy check. He's not raising us with anything that we have beat.

Mike Gallo

06-14-2005, 10:55 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Devil's advocate: (not saying I disagree with you, because I don't)

Would a full house really try check raising here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have check raised quads on the river /images/graemlins/grin.gif

gaming_mouse

06-14-2005, 11:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Devil's advocate: (not saying I disagree with you, because I don't)

Would a full house really try check raising here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Absolutely.

oreogod

06-15-2005, 12:12 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I like the raise not for winning UI, but getting the CO to fold significantly increases his chances of winning if a K or Q drops.

[/ QUOTE ]

What?

jason_t

06-16-2005, 07:33 AM

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: I am UTG+1 with Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif. UTG+2 posts a blind of $2.
UTG calls, I raise, 4 folds, CO 3-bets, 3 folds, UTG caps, I call, CO calls.

Flop: (14.50 SB) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 7/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 players)
UTG bets, I raise, CO folds, UTG 3-bets, I cap, UTG calls.

Turn: (11.25 BB) T/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
UTG bets, I raise, UTG 3-bets, I cap, UTG calls.

River: (19.25 BB) 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
UTG checks, I check.

Final Pot: 19.25 BB.

Villain shows A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif.

jskills

06-16-2005, 09:21 AM

Bet / call is the probable concensus of reponses. His check on the river sure is odd given the turn.

You're probably looking at AA (preflop limp reraise), but seeing as only that and the unlikely (given preflop) 77 or 22 beat you, it's hard to just put someone on any of those hands without solid reads. Hopefully he was getting carried away with AT or AK.