AQs In LP standard?

[evans075]

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (11.50 SB) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, MP2 checks, MP3 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls.

Turn: (8.25 BB) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, MP2 folds, MP3 checks, Hero checks.

Free card?

River: (8.25 BB) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP3 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls.

Final Pot: 13.25 BB

This is the first time I've posted one of these so berate me if you will!!

[tiltaholic]

what part of this hand is questionable to you?
it was played well.
a case could be made for betting the turn against 3 opponents since a Q or A may give you the best hand...but a check is good too. i prefer a check.

[Bradyams]

It's close, but I think I'd bet the turn.

You have ~15 outs, and are ~2:1 to make a hand on the river. If you bet and the remaining players call you are pushing a pretty good edge.

If you don't improve on the river you can take a free showdown and possibly win with A high against a busted draw.

[Jaran]

Depending on the table and your image, sometimes I bet the turn here. I don't hate the turn check. Rest is standard.

-Jaran

[karitek]

I'm betting that turn. You have 15 (!) outs to top pair or better. even if you discount the overcard outs, you have over 13 outs. Your equity is big. You only need two callers to make this +EV. Bet for value.

[Shillx]

There are a few compelling reasons to bet here (ie to get a hand like Q5 to fold or something like K9). The downside is that there are 4 others in the pot which means that it will be tough to get value from betting here and impossible to take it down right now. With 2 other villians I would bet as I would with 6 others. You are kinda in no mans land with this hand, and a check looks appropriate.

Brad

[evans075]

evans075 shows [ A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif ] a flush, ace high.
parsnippery doesn't show [ 3 /images/graemlins/heart.gif, 3 /images/graemlins/spade.gif ] three of a kind, threes.
evans075 wins 13.25BB with a flush, ace high.

[tiltaholic]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm betting that turn. You have 15 (!) outs to top pair or better. even if you discount the overcard outs, you have over 13 outs. Your equity is big. You only need two callers to make this +EV. Bet for value.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think saying "over 13 outs" is generous and i think it's a close bet - as 13 outs gives us a 28.2% chance to hit and we'd be contributing 25% of the money in the best possible case. (and if they all call i'd say it is more likely our A and Q outs aren't clean) you are incorrect when you say we only need 2 callers for this to be +EV, since we'd be contributing 33% of the money in that case.

[evans075]

the turn was my big question! I just re-read the Post flop play part of SSH and the free card section and wanted to make sure this was an implement of this play. Thanks for the responce!

[gopnik]

I am betting the turn. Against 4 people it's a bet for value.

[jba]

[ QUOTE ]

parsnippery doesn't show [ 3 /images/graemlins/heart.gif, 3 /images/graemlins/spade.gif ] three of a kind, threes.


[/ QUOTE ]

he is not very good at poker.

[bozlax]

Isn't there implied value (?) here in that betting the turn represents a made hand so if your flush card falls you can expect anyone that called the turn to call the river?

[Shillx]

implied value

Yeah this can be an important concept. In general, you get better implied odds on draws by either jamming the flop or showing weakness on 4th street (but not both). So let's assume that we bet the turn and get called. If we river a flush, will that turn bet give us extra action? Probably not unless the other dude makes a flush as well. If we check however, the villian might auto bet the river and then we can raise when we hit. Even if the villian checks the river, he will be more likely to call us on the end after we show weakness on 4th street.

Brad

[bozlax]

Gotcha, and interesting. I'm thinking that at .5/1 this isn't as set in stone as at, say 2/4 or 3/6. (I've actually had people in this situation cap the river when they caught top pair with my flush card saying, "Wow. I was sure you had the old top pair since you bet all the way through," but that's predicated on Villan making his hand on the river.

I guess it's also very position-dependent.

[Aaron W.]

The turn check is fine, and in fact is probably significantly better than the turn bet. Betting the turn "for value" is less favored than raising the river with a made hand. This is especially true when you are very sure you don't have the best hand and you are in position to take a free card. With a player left to act behind Hero, I'm more inclined to bet it.

A bet here runs the risk of getting check-raised, meaning that you derive less "value" out of the hand compared to taking the free river card and having villain bet into you then. You have far more to gain waiting until after you make your hand on the river than trying to pump such a minor edge on the turn.

You also don't know if you're reverse dominated, so you must be careful how you count your overcard outs here.

These are things you need to consider beyond "strong draw = bet for value", especially on the turn when your "strong draw" doesn't have nearly as much equity as it did on the flop.

[karitek]

[ QUOTE ]

i think saying "over 13 outs" is generous and i think it's a close bet - as 13 outs gives us a 28.2% chance to hit and we'd be contributing 25% of the money in the best possible case. (and if they all call i'd say it is more likely our A and Q outs aren't clean) you are incorrect when you say we only need 2 callers for this to be +EV, since we'd be contributing 33% of the money in that case.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, you're right. thanks for clearing that up for me. i'm really not thinking too straight today.