Firing the 3rd Barrell...

[crunchy1]

Villian (Button) is a ROCK of the 6/0/0 variety with a WSD% of 9%. I'm curious what kind of hand ranges we should put him on cold-calling 2 on the button. Also - how many of you fire the last barrell here?

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif. MP3 posts a blind of $2.
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, MP3 (poster) checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, Button calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP3 folds.

Flop: (6.50 SB) Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif, 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls.

Turn: (4.25 BB) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls.

River: (6.25 BB) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>...

[ihardlyknowher]

[ QUOTE ]
WSD% of 9%

[/ QUOTE ] /images/graemlins/shocked.gif

If this is over a significant number of hands, I fire.

[crunchy1]

My bad - meant to include that I have 80 hands on Villian.

[krimson]

For that excessive of a rock I think most of his cold-calling hands here would be similar to hands most players would 3-bet but not necessarily cap:

AK, AQ, QQ, JJ, TT and maybe 99.

I think anything better than these hands (AA,KK) he will raise with, and fold anything worse.

Given the flop and the lack of raise I think we can eliminate AQ, QQ, TT.

If he had 99 or JJ and didn't fold at the turn, he probably won't fold the river to the blank either. AK is our most likely hand that he will fold (and let's say he will do so 50% of the time)

3 ways to have 99
6 ways to have JJ
12 ways to have AK

I think I would bet the river in this situation. If we check we lose the pot almost 100% of the time, and we only need him to fold 1/3 times to be profitable.

[mtdoak]

After failing in my attempt to knock the 6% VPIP out before the flop, I bet the flop and go into check/fold mode. If the player is as tight as your read suggests, he's probably going to show you something your destroyed by. Even with a W@SD at 9%, I just can't think of what your going to beat here that he is going to call with.

[crunchy1]

[ QUOTE ]
W@SD at 9%

[/ QUOTE ]
Because I'm not sure we're seeing eye-to-eye on this stat I want to clarify that I'm referring to "Went to Showdown %" here.