5 Handed Flop Trip A's---Now What???

[Degen]

This was the final table of a 40 man multi w/ rebuys and addons, but I'd like some feedback from ya'll on it.

I was playing very agreesive and pretty loose so far at this final table and I thought a push here may bet called by some hands I wouldn't want to get called by...55-TT, KQ, KJ etc.

I had to showdown some awful garbage when i pushed shorties and they called and when i raised crap and hit, and opponents playing to the river. So my table image was not too good.





I am thinking this is a horrible laydown now becauce of what I've got from friends, MTT forum and my own reflection...but at the time I just couldn't see him as having the worst hand more than 50% of the time...and in that case I clearly do not want to call this, right?



Villain was a solid TAG player. Knew how to use his stack. He was the monster chip leader for much of the final table and I had the lead briefly before this hand.





Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t800 (5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Button (t14884)
Hero (t29069)
BB (t10094)
UTG (t26853)
MP (t17100)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls t800, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls t800, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (t3200) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets t2000</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t4000</font>, BB folds, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t26053 (All-In)</font>, Button folds, Hero folds.

Final Pot: t35253

[pergesu]

If he knows what he's doing with his stack, he's not pushing there for like another 22k. He'd want to massage the pot. Harrington says that this is a semibluff raise with a flush draw. But if this guy has proven to be excitable, then it's also a possibility he's just getting jumpy with this big hand.

You have to accumulate a lot of chips some time. Might as well try it when you got trips.

[pergesu]

[ QUOTE ]
Harrington says that this is a semibluff raise with a flush draw.

[/ QUOTE ]
Unless of course this guy KNOWS you read HOH2, or are otherwise a very solid player, and would interpret his play as a semibluff.

Then we get into the elaborate levels of heads up play. I /images/graemlins/heart.gif poker.

[Degen]

[ QUOTE ]
if this guy has proven to be excitable

[/ QUOTE ]

funny that you mention that...he did make a lot of 10XBB raises that looked like blind steals but he'd have big hands and bust people who'd call him...thats how he got all the chips.

[pergesu]

Well in that case, there's a better chance he has an ace (although he's obviously still more likely to have a flush draw).

BUT

Had he been playing a lot of hands for big raises, or just his really big hands? He limped UTG, so probably rules out AK-AQ, maybe worse aces if he'd raise AJ-AT or perhaps any suited ace. So that really only leaves AJ and A8 that you're afraid of here.

Given the combination of a likely flush draw, the fact that you're only afraid of two aces (AJ,A8 - AK and AQ ruled out due to limp), and ahead of all the other aces. Plus you have three outs to outdraw, or 6 to tie if he does indeed have AJ. And Harrington's 10% rule.

All that makes it look like a clear call to me.

[Degen]

[ QUOTE ]
And Harrington's 10% rule

[/ QUOTE ]

10% that he's bluffing? i don't recall that...

there is one more hand you didn't mention...88. but still 3 hands i'm afraid of and i agree w/ all of your logic there...he's most likely raising AK and AQ.

This hand was so weird because there hadn't been hardly any limping PF so far and then this hand 2 peeople limped. His raise didn't scare me so much as he saw 2 acts of aggression before him, AND THEN decided to push. that usually means a very strong hand...i often fold QQ, JJ and AK in a spot like this PF.

[johnnybeef]

given your image id call in a second.

[pergesu]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
And Harrington's 10% rule

[/ QUOTE ]

10% that he's bluffing? i don't recall that...

[/ QUOTE ]

Harrington's Law of Bluffing (HOH pp 132):
"The probably that your opponent is bluffing when he shoves a big bet in the pot is always at least 10 percent."

Those words are emphasized in the text. He then goes on to explain it a bit more and use it in a problem.

Yeah, I left out 88. But you get the idea. Not likely to be behind, and still a decent chance to draw out or split.

- Stoned Perg

[Degen]

bumptastic...anybody else?

[pooh74]

I'd call...is it ok if i dont give you any reasons? Im feeling lazy today