Question for you value betting experts. What's the correct river play?

[Nigel]

I need help dealing with the river checkraise. I like to value bet everything in sight, but I tend to pay off river checkraises too often. So, I am trying to cut back on this bad habit and trying to get better at indentifying when to let go, even if staring at a nice sized pot.

Here are two AA hands from the Party 30. No reads on either opponent...


Hand 1:

Party Poker 30/60 Hold'em (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 7/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP1 calls.

Turn: (4.75 BB) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP1 calls.

River: (6.75 BB) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>...


Hand 2:

Party Poker 30/60 Hold'em (7 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls.

Flop: (10 SB) T/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB folds, MP2 calls.

Turn: (7 BB) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP2 calls.

River: (9 BB) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>...


Who folds, who calls?

Thanks,

Nigel

[Nightwish]

Given no reads, I would call them both.

[Fillamoore]

i agree, given that you had no reads you almost have to call...
What is odd about the first hand is that at party 30 (i haven't played it but i spend time watching it) is that people are very aggressive. If he were to flop top pair out of position heads up to the pf reraiser...you would think he would take 1 of 2 lines here: 1) lead/3 bet or 2)C/R...Given the check call line im convinced he doesn't have top pair and he's making a last ditch effort at the large pot...I think your hand is good in this spot...
For the second hand, I dont like the value bet at all although the board was obvious and for him to go for a CR is just bad play...Either way you definitely have to call...
As for your problem with calling too many river CR's, I don't think it's a problem, i think your problem lies elsewhere. More often than not when cr'd on the river your getting great odds on the call and there are worse errors to make. I suggest value betting the river a little less on scary boards and you wont be faced with this problem...If people notice that you continue to bet EVERY time on the river, they may even start to let you bet their hands for them and whip out the ol cr on the river with just top pair even..dont let this happen...check a little more often. Good luck at the tables.

[Nigel]

Yes, I thought both hands were odd hands to checkraise.

Hand 1, I agree completely with you on it being unlikely that he had top pair with the check/call line he took.

Hand 2, is this really a bad spot to bet? I can't see checking through here when there are at least a dozen hands he will pay off with. Maybe I should have also asked who checks through on the river on hand 2?

The problem is, I think this is a weird spot for him to not bet out if he's hit, since I might pay him off with a few hands I would never bet. That is, unless he hit the backdoor flush or 666 and was so excited that he didn't even notice the 4 straight on the board.

Yes, you are getting great odds when river checkraised, but I would imagine that if I could write a custom Poker Tracker query I would find that you are probably good about 1 in 20 when river checkraised. I don't know, maybe it's my luck, but they always seem to have it.

Nigel

[tl65\]

I think you definately have to bet both rivers and pay them both off with no reads. In the first hand, the opponent could very easily have any pair or although unlikely, an A high that he will call with.

In the second hand, the opponent is unlikely to have a 7 or a flush, so you have to bet the river in my opinion. Also, with no reads, this could look like a very good spot to bluff checkraise to the opponent, so you have to payoff.

[flawless_victory]

against an unknown in party 30 with no tells regarding timing, their handles, etc. these hands are both automatic bet/payoff.

[JimmyV]

I definitely think you should call in Hand 1; opponent has decided that the Q makes it less likely for you to have TPTK and is just making a move. You win this hand seven times out of ten.

But I think in Hand 2 you have a fold. In fact I think I would check behind on this river -- there are just too many ways that that river card makes your opponent's hand. If the board were paired a call would be +EV but I think as it stands you win this hand less than twice in ten, and without double-checking I think the pot is still smallish (another reason to doubt that opponent is trying to steal it).

JimmyV


Edit: if you held the A /images/graemlins/club.gif in Hand 2 a call would be necessary. But there's a lot of ways for it to be in your opponent's hand. And I think you see 77 here more than 30% of the time.

[Nigel]

Jimmy,

Thanks for responding. I too lean towards the fold in hand 2, but I just think folding on this pot sucks. I think checking through suck. I think bet-folding sucks. I think bet-calling sucks. I pretty much hate it all unless it involves me betting him calling and the chips going my way. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

Seriously though, I'm glad someone feels that a fold was in order on hand two. But I'm also surprised that this is vote number 2 for a check through. I really thought these type of hands were easy river bets HU when checked to.

I'm hoping some more people have some things to add to the discussion, otherwise I'll just post the unexciting results shortly.

Thanks,

Nigel

[tpir90036]

I would pay both off and expect to lose them both. Hand #1 looks a lot like a player being nervous with KQ/QJ. Hand #2 looks a lot like 77. But I still pay them off like the ATM that I am.

[highlife]

[ QUOTE ]
I would pay both off and expect to lose them both. Hand #1 looks a lot like a player being nervous with KQ/QJ. Hand #2 looks a lot like 77. But I still pay them off like the ATM that I am.

[/ QUOTE ]

same here. i personally would need a read on the villian to let go. i gotta pay off an unknown with AA in those pots.

[esspo]

Hand 1 - Good bet. Pay off the raise.

Hand 2 - Not betting there unless the player is predictable enough that you can safely fold to a raise.

[JimmyV]

I'm predicting A /images/graemlins/club.gif J /images/graemlins/club.gif for hand two, but A /images/graemlins/club.gif Q /images/graemlins/club.gif seems possible and 77 is in the hunt.

I think I check behind on this board with this action (note especially the flop bet, indicating open-ender) 75% of the time.

JimmyV

[Fillamoore]

exactly...i Completely understand why it would seem almost an automatic value bet head up when checked too...and in most cases it is...but you have to figure out what your opponents are thinking, and you said yourself that your a value betting machine, and if your opponents are half way observant, they'll see this and take advantage of it. Figure its positive EV for them if you value bet here more than 50% of the time assuming you call his raise when he does it, and it sounds like you do so more than 50% so he could be exploiting this. I suggest checking behind not as an objective to not put any more money in the pot because there is a scary board, but to mix up your play a little bit so your opponents dont take advantage of this or try to put you off pots more. Think about this: you sacrifice one value bet in a marginal situation occasionally and you get cr'd on the river much less often so your opponents wont make as much with their good hands when you pay off, AND you wont be possibly moved off a pot, like hand 2 looks like you may have to...This is why i like checking behind, not because im necessarily scared of the board...Good luck at the tables.

[Nigel]

Hand 1 - I paid off to be shown a trashy suited Q, good call by Tpir about him being nervous about his Q, I'm also leaning towards him just being clueless and a total goof.

Hand 2- SOrry guys, I insta-folded and we will never know. First time I have ever made a fold like that against an unknown on the river and if I had thought about it for a split second longer, I would have called. I was multi-tabling my brains out at the time and that helped with me hitting the fold button, like ripping a band aid off.

Of course, after folding I felt like I had made the dumbest fold ever and proceeded to go attempt to hang myself with my mouse cord. I guess I need to go back to not folding these, or consider checking ultra scare boards through when there is light flop action like this particular hand.

The problem is, I just feel like I can count the number of checkraise bluffs that have been pulled on me on one hand. Am I alone on this? I mean, they always, always, always have it. Even on a hand like the first hand I posted where it just makes no sense that you are behind with that river.

I really do need to contact Pat or Peter Rus and look into probing the PT DB to see, on average, how many times in 100 a river checkraise is a bluff.

Thanks for all the replies, maybe we can keep the discussion going.

Cheers,

Nigel