A10s, bet flop?

[deepsquat]

No reads, only 2nd orbit although the table has been tight with usually on 2 or 3 to the flop.

A friend of mine believes a bet on the flop would be good here, just looking for opinions?

Absolute Poker 1/2 Hold'em (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 calls, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, MP2 checks, Hero checks.

Should i throw a bet in here with an inside str8 draw, BDFD and overcards?

Turn: (4.25 BB) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, UTG calls, MP2 calls, Hero folds.

River: (7.25 BB) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, MP2 checks.

Final Pot: 7.25 BB

[the_rookie]

I fold this preflop.

Edit, after reading Bodhis thread I somehow missed how the flop hit you. Bet the flop.

[Bodhi]

Very clear fold preflop. After the flop I agree with your friend that you should bet. Along with your weak draws, you have position and the chance to win the pot without a showdown.

[irishpint]

bet the flop because you have the 2 draws (gutshot and bdfd) plus 2 overcards. in addition, it might buy you a free turn card, if you chose, rather than being bet into and forced to fold.

[aK13]

[ QUOTE ]
the table has been tight with usually on 2 or 3 to the flop.

Preflop: Hero is CO with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 calls, Hero calls,

[/ QUOTE ]

/images/graemlins/confused.gif /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[deepsquat]

yeah pf sucks. If there is a raise and 2 callers is this still a fold? There seems to be so many opinions out there.

I see ppl advocating calling KQs in situations the same as this.

[Bodhi]

KQs is a much better starting hand than than ATs. It sounds like you overvalue Aces.

[deepsquat]

Your prob right.

So in this exact same scenario a call with KQs is ok?

[Bodhi]

It depends, but I'm much more likely to cold call on the button with KQs than ATs.

[aK13]

[ QUOTE ]
Your prob right.

So in this exact same scenario a call with KQs is ok?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't like coldcalling with KQs, but with MP2 stuck in the middle, I think it's ok. I'd still be fairly careful postflop, though, as you could still be dominated, but not as likely as with ATs.

[zuluking]

Wow. In LLHE I'd think it was ok to call pre-flop here.

[xenthebrain]

I don't cold call here

[jrz1972]

I would probably have folded this preflop, but I would definitely have coldcalled with AJs, so coldcalling with ATs can't be all that bad.

I'm also fine with checking the flop. You have enough outs to call a bet, but I would rather just take my free card now rather than risk getting check-raised by the PFR. A bet is not going to pick up the pot here.

[Fantam]

Yes, IMHO I think that you should have bet the flop. Just be aware as Jrz1972 mentioned that there is a possibility of the PF raiser check-raising you. (see below)

You were in good position, being the last player to act and this makes a difference.

When you put the last bet in on the flop and other players call, there is a tendency for them to check to you on the turn, if they dont improve. This will then allow you to also check and see the river "for free" if you havent improved either. So the cost of seeing the river card becomes only 1 small bet instead of 1 big turn bet.

This play is best used when your opponents tend to be passive. Against agressive players you should try for a "free card" less often, as you risk being check-raised, which will then make seeing the turn and river more expensive.

[mockingbird]

I would bet the flop and fold UI to a turn bet.

On the flop it seems to me that if UTG had raised pf with a big PP he would have bet the flop. On a board like that and a tight game I dont think he can count on anyone else betting the flop for sure. And if he has TT, JJ, QQ, KK they are vulnerable to anyone, like yourself, with an A hitting a str8 or pairing. Also, if he was going for a c/r he will trap at most one player into having to call 2 bets.

It seems more likely that he has you dominated with AKs, AK, AQ, AQs, or AJs. And like you, he has a gutshot, overcards, and maybe or maybe not a BDFD. So if he is passive he will just check the flop for fear that someone has hit a small pair.

Still, I would bet the flop, you have 8.5 outs to TP, the nut flush, or a str8. Also, betting may get you a free card on the turn or maybe get someone to fold.

When the BB bets out the turn after the flop was checked around, with no reads it is hard to say what he may have. He could be bluffing to represent a 5. But since he is betting into 3 players on the turn I would give him credit for something: he could have called in the BB w/Q4s and have two pair - 5's and 4's with an overcard. He could have A2s or 67s and have a made str8. He could have pocket 6's, 7's, or 8's and feel he is ahead and may have a str8 draw.

Anyway, I would bet the flop and fold on the turn if the action is the same.

Looks like the BB had some sort of hand and got scared when the 3rd spade hit and checked. UTG had two overcards, and MP2 had ??? missed a str8 draw, a trey and overcard, ???

[topspin]

[ QUOTE ]
KQs is a much better starting hand than than ATs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why? A reasonable range of raising hands dominates KQs just as often as ATs. I suppose KQs makes 1 more straight than ATs, but that's hardly enough to qualify it as "a much better starting hand".

[parappa]

We could debate the preflop coldcall, but you did it, it's not bad, and I won't complain.

Yes, I think this is a good spot for a flop bet, provided it's the type of table where people will fold on the flop. Your AT might be currently best and you have outs, but not enough that you'd be troubled by a check-raise. I think it's a good spot.

[topspin]

[ QUOTE ]
We could debate the preflop coldcall, but you did it, it's not bad, and I won't complain.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
the table has been tight with usually on 2 or 3 to the flop

[/ QUOTE ]

On this sort of table, against an UTG raise, I think the cold-call is bad.

But as you point out, OP was soliciting opinions about the flop. Personally I like the flop check, since I think (1) the odds of picking this up the pot on the flop is small, and (2) many of our outs are suspect -- if a 2 falls, we have the sucker end of a 4-straight board, and are likely to either split or lose to a higher straight, and our overcard outs may be tainted.

I think our only chance of winning this pot would be to fire the flop, hope to get HU with UTG, and keep firing if more undercards fall hoping to fold out unimproved overcards. This line spews a lot of chips if villain is unwilling to fold, though, so I think the check and subsequent fold is fine.

[parappa]

[ QUOTE ]
We could debate the preflop coldcall, but you did it, it's not bad, and I won't complain.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
the table has been tight with usually on 2 or 3 to the flop

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
On this sort of table, against an UTG raise, I think the cold-call is bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I cold-call this 0% of the time, but I've noticed that a lot of posters here are much looser about coldcalling stuff like this in position, so I didn't want to debate it if he wants to do it. The OP probably already knows that it's naughty.



[ QUOTE ]
But as you point out, OP was soliciting opinions about the flop. Personally I like the flop check, since I think (1) the odds of picking this up the pot on the flop is small, and (2) many of our outs are suspect -- if a 2 falls, we have the sucker end of a 4-straight board, and are likely to either split or lose to a higher straight, and our overcard outs may be tainted.

I think our only chance of winning this pot would be to fire the flop, hope to get HU with UTG, and keep firing if more undercards fall hoping to fold out unimproved overcards. This line spews a lot of chips if villain is unwilling to fold, though, so I think the check and subsequent fold is fine.

[/ QUOTE ]

My thinking on these two is:

1) with 8.5 SB in the pot, I don't need to take it down that often. Thinking about it a bit harder, do I take it down more than 11.7% of the time? I don't think that number's unreasonable, so I think a flop bet can be defended merely on that ground.

2)I think my hand's worth about 5.5-6 outs here. I'm assigning like 1.5 to the ace, like 1.5 to the 2 (it's worth no more than 2, I don't think), 1-1.5 for the T, and 1.5 for the BDFD. I don't think that I have any problem calling a bet on the flop, and the pot odds and the folding equity seem reasonable.

The real problem with my idea comes if I get check-raised. Then I think I have about 3 or 4 outs (1 for the ace, 1.5 fo the 2s, 1.5 for the bdfd), but, assuming that someone comes along I'm making it like 13:1 or so to call the single raise, and 6.5ish:1 on the total street doesn't seem horrible for the hand I've got.

My idea is that all those little bits, plus the chance that I might get a free look at the river and the fact that I'm a control-freak, make a flop bet worthwhile.

The tough bit is, as you say, when villain calls the turn and checks a blank to us. That's prime check-raising territory and I'd have a much harder decision there. Perhaps that's a big vote in favour of checking through the flop, the fact that I'd have a hard time figuring out what to do if a turn blank was checked to me.