Tarver vs. Johnson

[Tuds75]

Instead of adding to the "tyson/mcbride" thread I thought we could start a new thread for upcoming fights and some people's thoughts.

The trend I am noticing is that the dogs are coming up big lately. Think about all the dogs who have won major fights in the last 3-4 months.Zab Judah, Erik Morrales, Diego Castillo, Winky Wright, Lamon Brewster, Ricky Hatton, and Kevin McBride. Seems likes this could be a profitable trend if worked right. Does this make Gatti at 4-1 look any better or make you think differently about Hopkins continuing his win streak?

I Johnson wins a decison and Tarver wins by KO, sayin that I think Johnson is a good dog bet (see above), but the over is even better. Becoming more unsure about Gatti/Mayweather over. I know this bet just seems so good, but then so did the Hatton/'Zoo fight.

The best bet I think that is out there under 7.5 rounds @ -120. Only twice has one of his fights gone past 7 rounds. Peters is a KO machine and he is becoming more patient and pounding the body early in the fights which set up a latter round KO. I saw him fight Yanqi Diaz and that guy was and experianced fighter who was planning on taking Peters into the later rounds, but Peters over powered and outboxed him and eventually KOed him, just like he will do with Sykes on July 2nd.

Any Thoughts?

Tuds

[Indiana]

I agree with you on your Peter's analysis. I already laid 300 on the over for the Tarver/Johnson fight. I don't know why you are uncertain about the over for the Gatti fight though. I would be interested in hearing more about that. Floyd isn't really a knockout figher (if POS chop-chop can make it 12 rounds with him, you know Gatti will), and he is way too proud not to go the distance if Gatti does start to lay into him. I think its free $$ there. Now I do believe that we are taking a small risk with the over on the Tarver fight but again it feels like free $.

Just my random 2 cents,

Indiana

[Tuds75]

Don't get me wrong I still think the over on Gatti/Mayweather is a good bet, I am just not as confident as I was about the bet as I was a couple week ago (of course after the Hatton fight I am a little shell shocked).

Mayweather might not be a big puncher or a KO "artist", but we are not giving his power enough credit. I have seen him KO people with 1 punch (Phillip N'dou). Against Chop-Chop he fought a "Roy Jones" style fight. Winning rounds and avoiding danger. He was happy just scoring punches and never put himself in position to do damage or get damaged.

Lets not forget that Gatti is a world class bleeder (even though he hasnt been that bad lately), Mayweather could pepper him with shot to the face and Mayweather could get a TKO by doctor stoppage. Gatti's corner could also throw in the towel during the fight. Mayweather could land such a high volume of punches and really injure Gatti. Don't forget about when Gatti fought Ward and has VERY luck that the ref didnt stop the fight and that was only 10 rounds.

Also, Gatti is the bigger fighter and bigger puncher. I can't see Gatti winning a decision, but if he wins it will most likely be by KO. And with all the upsets recently this needs to be considered. Did you ever think 'Zoo was going to be TKOed by Hatton or Corrales would TKO Castillo?
Just Some stuff to think about before the fight.

Who do you like between Tarver and Johnson? Me, I am leaning towards Johnson. I see the Tarver/Johnson series of fights being similar to Mosley/Forrest and Mosely/Winky fights. Mosely was the considered the better fighter and just had a bad fight, but in the rematches the same thing happened as each of the first fights. Tarver is more talented fighter, but Johnson is the older fighter who fights a tough style against for his opponet to beat.

Best Bet is still Sam Peter under 7.5 rounds.

Tuds

[Indiana]

Interesting analysis. I would take Tarver over Johnson. I didnt feel that Tarver lost by much in that last fight and I think that he is very confident and very hungry. I also think that Johnson has a style that is easy to figure out.

Indiana

[other1]

Well I'm no expert, and I happen to be a big Gatti fan which could skew my view, but none of us really know anything anyway.. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

I like the over and I like Gatti. I don't see Gatti getting KO'ed, plain and simple. Mayweather has not shown that he has the power to finish off a 140 pounder, let alone a guy like Gatti who has the heart of a lion.

On the flip side I also don't see Gatti scoring a KO, or at least not an early one, against Mayweather. Ignoring a few contests against much lesser opponents (Dorin, Millett) Gatti has not been much of an early KO threat in recent history. I see the fight going the distance and I see Gatti winning a decision. Ultimately I don't think Mayweather can KO Gatti or give him a convincing enough beating to take his title away on points. Boardwalk Hall is also Gatti's home turf, where he has had 5 consecutive fights, and wins, and should have a huge crowd behind him.. you can't discount this if it goes to the cards.

[Indiana]

Yah I think its gonna be a split decision, but I would go with either a draw or a Mayweather victory. If there ever were a fight where I would bet it would be a draw, this would likely be the one.

Indiana

[other1]

Very possible. This is one of the things that makes the over so compelling. I think you could get 3 different answers from 3 different experts on the outcome of the fight but I bet they all start with 'It goes the distance and...'.

Now that you mention it.. I'll be very interesting to see what the line is on a draw.

[llabb]

+115 Mayweather to win by Decision
+160 Mayweather to win by KO, TKO, DQ
+600 Gatti to win by KO, TKO, DQ
+800 Gatti to win by Decision
+2000 Draw

Best value here? Combine Mayweather Decision and Draw?

[other1]

Where are you getting all these options? I use sportsbook.com and they just have winner and over/under options.

[llabb]

Thanks for the good discussion, guys. I'm no boxing expert, so perhaps this can be my contribution to the thread.

The odds are listed on Intertops.com. In their boxing section, besides distance propositions, they also give winning propositions as the fights get closer, which include all of the above options.

3 other combination options to think about are:
1) Combine Mayweather decision plus Draw for equal winnings at -105
2) Bet the Draw, completely hedge the Mayweather decision for Draw +510
3) Bet the Mayweather decision, completely hedge the Draw for Mayweather decision +105

Thoughts?

[Tuds75]

I don't like a draw in the Gatti/Mayweather fight. Usually a draw happens when 2 fighters w/ similar styles fight (Morrales/Pacman) or when fighters have fought more then once, Morrales/Barrera, and Mosley/Winky. Gatti and Mayweather have very different fighting styles. I don't think a draw will happen when these two guys square off.

The over bet is still questionable. Like another poster mentioned something about, 3 out of 3 experts agreeing that the fight will go the distance, not matter the outcome. I would guarentee the concensus among boxing followers was the Kotsya Tszyu would beat Hatton and they also would agre that Tyson could not lose to McBride and look how those "sure things" worked out. Sayin that is a reason the over line is low and not moving.

What about Tarver/Johnson. I think this fight has a better chance of being declared a draw then the Gatti/Maywweather fight does (see above). Think about this: This fight ends in a draw. They have a rematch. The winner of the rematch fights Roy Jones. Or the winner fights of the rematch can fight Hopkins after he beats Winky (assuming he beats Taylor). OR the winner of the rematch can fight the winner of RJJ vs. B-Hop. Still I like Johnson by decision because of his tough in your face/control the ring style. The over is the best bet in this fight. This one is going the distance.

Tuds

[Indiana]

yah, I just laid a few more big ones on both overs...Gatti/May and Tarver/John...Wish me luck!!!

Indiana

[Tha Villain]

IMO, the reason for the upsets are that a lot of fighters are now showing their age.

Kostya just couldn't keep up with the younger hungrier Hatton. I don't think fighting at like 1:00 a.m. helped him either. It's one thing to go from New York to fight in Las Vegas or L.A., it's another thing to cross the ocean and fight in another country and climate and time zone. Technically, Tszyu beats Hatton most days of the week. I think that he's just starting to show his age, among other factors, and Hatton was able to capitalize.

As for Tyson, he's 39. It's very hard to box, especially at Heavyweight, at 39 years old. It's much more difficult to put off weight and get in shape. Also Tyson is missing screws mentally. It seems that now since he's getting older he doesn't have that killer instinct he once had. He seems like he lost his edge. McBride is a big guy also. I wasn't too suprised by the outcome. I would have bet it, but I had already lost all that I planned on losing in the Kostya fight. I'm so mad I didn't have money to bet that one. Oh well...

And with Tito/Winky, I was suprised Winky wasn't the Favorite. He had come off of two impressive wins against Shane Mosely, a world-class fighter, and Tito was coming off of a layoff. He won his first fight against Mayorga which was a gimme. Mayorga is a balls to the walls fighter. He wasn't even blocking lol. The old Tito would have put him down in Round 2 or 3. You could tell from that he wasn't the Tito of old.

For Tarver/Johnson, they are both up in age, but Tarver looks like he has fewer miles. Johnson looks older than he is. Also, Tarver is a BEAST after losses. He has lost two times in his career, and he has avenged both losses with KO victories. His first loss to Johnson was a controversial decision. He landed more punches than Johnson for a higher percentage and still lost. IMO he's the better fighter, and he comes back hungrier after losses. So I give him the nod.

As for PBF/Gatti, Floyd isn't old and isn't showing any signs of slowing down. I don't see any suprise upsets here. Gatti is the one ageing and has taken quite a few punches and put on quite a few miles. He's had a resurgence lately, but Jesse James Leija is in no way, shape, or form, Pretty Boy Floyd.

But those are just my opinions.

[Indiana]

very good reading...Looks like we have another member to the boxing think tank...I knew that winky was obvious money and bet big on that one...Kostya on the other hand, well, like I said, the ref cannot let a guy just charge and hold like that....Its boxing, not ult. fighting. Pretty boy floyd is IMO one of the best around and I feel that he should win this one...I am only betting the over on it since I don't like the price for Floyd. As for Tyson, I did bet 100 against him @ 6:1 but didn't want to make that an official recommendation since his opponent was not golden boy himself. Enjoy the fight this weekend everybody, it will be a duzzie!

Indiana

[llabb]

I've mentioned it before, but one way to get the odds down on the favorites is to parlay. This may be a good option for those that want to take Mayweather, but feel that the price is too high.

Mayweather/Tarver together is about -120, not too bad.
Mayweather/Hopkins is about the same.
Mayweather/Tarver/Hopkins is about +180.

Thoughts about taking one or more of these?

[Tuds75]

I was reading an article on ESPN.com and it mentioned a couple fights that will be easy money in the near future.

It looks like John Ruiz is trying to set up a fight with Kevin McBride for some time in the fall. There is no way Ruiz loses this fight. Ruiz is an UGLY boxers, but he finds a way to keep getting the "Ws".If Ruiz is anything around -200, that would be the best boxing bet of the year. This is better then Tszyu going off at -200.

Another junk heavyweight is planning a return to the ring in August. Andrew Golota is going to fight Przemyslaw Saleta. After Golota's last fight he even admitted, similar to Tyson, that he is done with boxing because he just doesnt have "it" anymore. I can't see Golota winning or this fight going the distance. So Saleta and the under are the best bets.

You heard it here first.

Thoughts?

Tuds

[Indiana]

I had not heard that Golota was coming back. I thought he said in his last interview before the Brewster fight that if he couldnt win the fight it would be his last. I think that you are right on that the under would be sweet with unstable Golota in the ring. My concern would be that they may set up some type of 2.5 under which would not be that great due to his last performance with Brewster. I would also bet Ruiz against McBride. I would even take that bet @ -250.

Keep us posted,

Indiana

[TRBNGR]

It's ironic that you started a post called Tarver vs Johnson, picking Johnson where I started a thread called Johnson vs Tarver where I picked Tarver.

'its just flesh, and nothing more...'

[TRBNGR]

[ QUOTE ]
Does this make Gatti at 4-1 look any better or make you think differently about Hopkins continuing his win streak?


[/ QUOTE ]

The hopkins bet seems like it has more gambool to it.... I still cant convince myself of a scenario where Gatti beats Mayweather.

[Tuds75]

The 2.5 round over/under bet is reserved for a Mike Tyson fight only. Just look, they are giving Sam Peters 7.5 rounds to finish this fight. The over/under on a Golota return bout will be a "Peter-ish" 7.5 rounds or so, that of course if it ever happens, but with Don King putting it togther my guess is YES.

Tuds

[partygirluk]

Johnson looks in better shape than normal

http://us.news2.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/p/ap/20050617/capt.tndp10106172254.tarver_johnson_tndp101.jpg

[Indiana]

Hmmm. You're right. And Tarver is so skinny looking. Is this the same guy that knocked Roy Jones out with a single punch in the second round?? Either way, I don't give a hell who wins, I have a nice piece of change on the over...That's all I care about. Anyhow, enjoy a great fight tonight (or tomorrow morning for our UK buddies:))

Indiana

[other1]

I just noticed that Ike Quartey is making a comeback on the same card tonight.. I guess he isn't dead after all. /images/graemlins/shocked.gif
Maybe we'll see Pernell Whitaker's return next.. He's only 41. /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

[Tuds75]

[ QUOTE ]
Johnson looks in better shape than normal

http://us.news2.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/p/ap/20050617/capt.tndp10106172254.tarver_johnson_tndp101.jpg

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't forget this at the weigh-in. Each guy has been cutting weight and by the time of the fight they will have put on 10-15 pounds once they enter the ring. Tarver looks like a starving Ethiopian.

The real question is why can't either of these guys find a pair of pants/shorts they can keep from falling down?

[Indiana]

Anybody wanna have a round by round discussion/analysis/critique here in the forum during the fight? Or you guys just wanna focus on the heineken and chill?

Indiana