SNGPT says my fold was good - but I don't believe it!

[Karak567]

I folded and felt sick about it so I looked it up in SNGPT and it says it's a good fold.

But how?

***** Hand History for Game 2204024588 *****
NL Hold'em $30 Buy-in + $3 Entry Fee Trny:13076474 Level:6 Blinds(150/300) - Tuesday, June 14, 00:03:43 EDT 2005
Table Table 12231 (Real Money)
Seat 2 is the button
Total number of players : 5
Seat 2: BigRoller18 ( $1450 )
Seat 1: PkrStud ( $2318 )
Seat 6: Hero ( $1795 )
Seat 9: stackhouse00 ( $1161 )
Seat 8: Uptake ( $1276 )
Trny:13076474 Level:6
Blinds(150/300)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ Qc Ad ]
stackhouse00 folds.
PkrStud is all-In [2318]
BigRoller18 folds.
Hero folds.

[yellowjack]

Coinflip at best; is he doing this with AJ?

[Freudian]

I would call here unless the other guy is a rock. And I don't care if a damned machine tells me I am wrong!

[Freudian]

[ QUOTE ]
Coinflip at best; is he doing this with AJ?

[/ QUOTE ]

He is most likely doing this with A8 also.

[curtains]

I fold here too almost always.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Coinflip at best; is he doing this with AJ?

[/ QUOTE ]

He is most likely doing this with A8 also.

[/ QUOTE ]If it's me I'm doing it with 98.

[microbet]

What range do you put him on? What range do you put on BB's calls if you call?

[momo24]

What push range are you putting him on? I put this in to SNGPT (or SGA whatever it's called) and it's an easy call (+1.7%) if he's pushing: 22+,A2s+,A3o+,KTs+,KJo+,QJs.

I'd guess this is a conservative range for the hands he'd push so I think this is a clear call.

[ZeeJustin]

[ QUOTE ]
Coinflip at best; is he doing this with AJ?

[/ QUOTE ]

Hahahahahaahahahahaaahahahahahahahahahahaha

[curtains]

I put that into the SNG analyzer and it actually says AQo is a clear fold against that range. Not sure how you got the +1.7% number.

[microbet]

I put that range in and got -0.0%, -9cents ($33 right), so I don't know what is going on with us and Eastbay's software.

That doesn't count the times BB calls, which hurts - maybe that is what you mean Curtains.

Anyway, the problem is, if you play around with the ranges you are hurt a lot more if his actual range is tighter than you guess than you are helped if it is looser. So if you are going to make this call, you have to put him on a pretty loose range and be very sure of it.

[all by ICM, with no consideration of block theory or anything else, yet]

[eastbay]

It says no such thing. Please try again, and actually think about it this time.

eastbay

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
What push range are you putting him on? I put this in to SNGPT (or SGA whatever it's called) and it's an easy call (+1.7%) if he's pushing: 22+,A2s+,A3o+,KTs+,KJo+,QJs.

I'd guess this is a conservative range for the hands he'd push so I think this is a clear call.

[/ QUOTE ]

You guys really need to slow down and be careful with SGA.

If you feed it garbage, it will happily return the favor.

eastbay

[vinyard]

[ QUOTE ]
It says no such thing. Please try again, and actually think about it this time.

[/ QUOTE ]
While his tone may be less than pleasant his assertion is 100% correct. Given the forum's collective inability to use EB's tool I wonder how many participants could use a hammer without breaking a thumb.

[Karak567]

I had the guy in as average because he was a ROCK.

Even being a rock... I still think I should have called.

I am guessing eastbay is suggesting that I should have put him on maniac or loose range?

Come on man, you can be nicer, I paid you 79 dollars for the program! /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
I had the guy in as average because he was a ROCK.

Even being a rock... I still think I should have called.

I am guessing eastbay is suggesting that I should have put him on maniac or loose range?

Come on man, you can be nicer, I paid you 79 dollars for the program! /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

And I'm trying to help you actually get some value out of it!

What I'm suggesting is that if you didn't even bother to mention what, how, or why you put a read on this guy's push, you're not doing enough thinking about what's important here.

And to say "The program says X" without giving that information is just not true, and misrepresents what the program does, how it does it, and why.

Returning to the hand in question:

If you really have confidence that this guy is on 44+,A7s+,A9o+,KJs+, then did you notice that your win probability is 51%?

Do you really want to flip a coin with a 1% edge to be eliminated here?

I'm setting aside for the moment the issue of whether that range is a good assumption. Just assume it is for the sake of discussion.

eastbay

[Karak567]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I had the guy in as average because he was a ROCK.

Even being a rock... I still think I should have called.

I am guessing eastbay is suggesting that I should have put him on maniac or loose range?

Come on man, you can be nicer, I paid you 79 dollars for the program! /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

And I'm trying to help you actually get some value out of it!

What I'm suggesting is that if you didn't even bother to mention what, how, or why you put a read on this guy's push, you're not doing enough thinking about what's important here.

And to say "The program says X" without giving that information is just not true, and misrepresents what the program does, how it does it, and why.

eastbay

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah I wasn't too detailed... I was 8-tabling at the time, heh, but I should have spent more time to think out my post.

I suppose it is a "too close to call" fold then? Not sure how solid my read is... I had been paying more attention to this game than the rest though (simply because it is right in front of my face on the center monitor).

While I have your attention, mind if I shoot a couple more questions at you?

How does one take into account people limping ahead of me when I have a "pushable" hand. Should I just ignore the fact that they limped (unless they are an ultra small stack) and plug numbers in to verify whether I made the right move or not or does that REALLY throw things out of whack...

Another cool thing to do would to be able to evaluate pushes from the BB when the SB has completed.

Not sure if these are just stupid questions- but they are things that had been bugging me. Would appreciate some input...

Edit to respond to eastbay's edit - I think with that range that is a pretty easy fold for me, especially seeing as I believe myself to be "talented" in the way of bubble play, more "talented" than the average opponent I'll face on the bubble at tables.

I think I really need to evaluate the % of the time he will be on each range and compare that to the win % of calling against each range of hands - even then I think this makes this a clear fold.

If I was poor at bubble play, I think it would be a clear call.

[momo24]

I mistakenly had the blinds at 300/600 instead of 150/300 when I got the 1.7% number -- my apologies.

With the blinds entered correctly, the call/fold decision still depends on the range you're putting villain on.

With the loose range (22+, A2s+, A3o+, KTs+, KJo+, QJs) it's 0.0%. If you widen his range to 22+, A2+, K7+, Q8+, J9+ then you've got a clear call (+1.1%).

[eMarkM]

What range would you push here in PkrStud's place to pick up 450 in blinds? What range does SNGPT say is +EV to push in his spot? I haven't run it, but would think any A is a push according to the tool. How about T9o? Once the blinds are this high a huge range of hands become +EV to push. Now who knows if this guys knows anything about ICM, but I would think his range would be awfully loose and AQ would be good here against that range.

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]

I suppose it is a "too close to call" fold then? Not sure how solid my read is... I had been paying more attention to this game than the rest though (simply because it is right in front of my face on the center monitor).


[/ QUOTE ]

It really could go either way, depending on game conditions. I call by default in my home game of $109 because I put him on a wide range and I'll take small edges to get a big stack going to the bubble.

If he's really an identifiable rock, then you want to exploit him on the "other side" by running him over, especially as blinds go up from here, rather than flipping coins for his chips at the risk of your elimination now.

[ QUOTE ]

While I have your attention, mind if I shoot a couple more questions at you?

How does one take into account people limping ahead of me when I have a "pushable" hand. Should I just ignore the fact that they limped (unless they are an ultra small stack) and plug numbers in to verify whether I made the right move or not or does that REALLY throw things out of whack...


[/ QUOTE ]

No, that's a VERY different situation and one which the current version doesn't handle. I'm working on doing that kind of analysis properly for a future release.

[ QUOTE ]

Not sure if these are just stupid questions- but they are things that had been bugging me. Would appreciate some input...


[/ QUOTE ]

Not stupid questions. Much better to ask than misapply something and be misled by the results.

eastbay

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
I mistakenly had the blinds at 300/600 instead of 150/300 when I got the 1.7% number -- my apologies.

With the blinds entered correctly, the call/fold decision still depends on the range you're putting villain on.

With the loose range (22+, A2s+, A3o+, KTs+, KJo+, QJs) it's 0.0%. If you widen his range to 22+, A2+, K7+, Q8+, J9+ then you've got a clear call (+1.1%).

[/ QUOTE ]

Now we're talking.

I'd add one more extra point here, and that is that getting a big stack going to the bubble is a nice situation, and if you sense any timidness in your remaining opponents, you want to take even small edges to get in that situation, because ICM probably slightly undervalues your equity in that case, simply because it gives your opponents too much credit in their ability to read and defend against your proper strategy at that point - which is to go balls out in running them over.

eastbay

[microbet]

My preset hand ranges are different. Did that change between versions? I have 1.17b.

The hand range presets doesn't matter in itself, just wondering. I should probably upgrade, huh?

[curtains]

on the loose range, I got still a clear fold... like -.8 EV

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
My preset hand ranges are different. Did that change between versions? I have 1.17b.

The hand range presets doesn't matter in itself, just wondering. I should probably upgrade, huh?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, definitely get the latest one if it's stable for you ( a few people are having stability problems, most are not.)

There's a few must-have improvements like "compute all" (for all your possible holdings in this scenario.)

eastbay

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]

on the loose range, I got still a clear fold... like -.8 EV

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't verify either way, just acknowledging that exploring ranges is important here to get a feel for how this hand works out.

Note the stacks are in a weird order in the OP, that might account for some of the discrepancies noted.

eastbay

[momo24]

Definitely get the test version. The "compute all" is a HUGE addition.

[microbet]

Thanks (to momo too).

Working so far. The compute all is killer. I have done that by hand many-a-time and it could be tedious.

[Daliman]

Paralysis by analysis defined.

[Bigwig]

I call this. It's a great price for AQ. You're 3:2 over the likely range of hands the CO is pushing. It's also 5 handed. Not 4. And a win here will get me in the lead on the bubble.

I really don't understand why it's a fold. Somebody smarter will have to explain it to me. Or perhaps you screwed the program up.

[FatalError]

Jesus Christ i call here instantly, win the hand, and take 1st place... all i know is that *I* would push in that spot with less that AK QQ-AA, in fact i'd be pushing with a wide enough range of hands to make this a good call

[The once and future king]

The gap is strong with anyone who even thinks of folding here.

[EasilyFound]

How good of a hand do you need here to call?

[lastchance]

Opponent needs A2+, any pair, K9+, QJ+ to make this a profitable call. Any sane opponent is pushing at least this range.

[EasilyFound]

[ QUOTE ]
Opponent needs A2+, any pair, K9+, QJ+ to make this a profitable call. Any sane opponent is pushing at least this range.

[/ QUOTE ]

The OP had AQ, which is supposed to be a fold. /images/graemlins/confused.gif